Auburn
Southeastern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.1#20
Expected Predictive Rating+15.8#18
Pace75.2#55
Improvement+0.8#107

Offense
Total Offense+8.0#19
First Shot+4.7#44
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#27
Layup/Dunks+2.6#86
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#100
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#169
Freethrows+0.9#128
Improvement+0.5#120

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#39
First Shot+8.6#12
After Offensive Rebounds-2.5#312
Layups/Dunks+6.5#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#277
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#103
Freethrows+1.4#103
Improvement+0.3#153
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.4% 1.6% 0.4%
#1 Seed 6.7% 7.7% 2.1%
Top 2 Seed 15.8% 17.7% 7.2%
Top 4 Seed 37.8% 41.3% 22.6%
Top 6 Seed 57.9% 61.4% 42.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 88.3% 90.3% 79.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 86.8% 89.0% 77.7%
Average Seed 5.4 5.2 6.4
.500 or above 97.8% 98.7% 93.7%
.500 or above in Conference 86.2% 87.8% 79.5%
Conference Champion 17.3% 18.5% 11.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.9%
First Four3.4% 2.9% 5.2%
First Round86.7% 88.8% 77.1%
Second Round61.2% 63.7% 49.9%
Sweet Sixteen32.1% 34.2% 23.3%
Elite Eight15.2% 16.3% 10.3%
Final Four6.6% 7.2% 4.2%
Championship Game2.7% 3.0% 1.6%
National Champion1.2% 1.3% 0.6%

Next Game: Central Florida (Home) - 81.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 7
Quad 26 - 212 - 9
Quad 37 - 120 - 10
Quad 44 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 138   Morehead St. W 77-54 91%     1 - 0 +22.2 +5.0 +17.5
  Nov 12, 2021 272   Louisiana Monroe W 93-65 97%     2 - 0 +18.9 +9.3 +7.6
  Nov 19, 2021 207   South Florida W 58-52 93%     3 - 0 +3.9 -6.0 +10.4
  Nov 24, 2021 13   Connecticut L 109-115 2OT 46%     3 - 1 +9.0 +14.1 -3.5
  Nov 25, 2021 32   Loyola Chicago W 62-53 58%     4 - 1 +20.9 +3.0 +18.9
  Nov 26, 2021 78   Syracuse W 89-68 76%     5 - 1 +27.7 +15.8 +11.9
  Dec 01, 2021 66   Central Florida W 78-68 81%    
  Dec 04, 2021 113   Yale W 80-67 90%    
  Dec 11, 2021 109   Nebraska W 83-73 81%    
  Dec 14, 2021 321   North Alabama W 88-62 99%    
  Dec 18, 2021 60   @ Saint Louis W 78-75 62%    
  Dec 22, 2021 86   Murray St. W 77-66 84%    
  Dec 29, 2021 10   LSU W 78-77 53%    
  Jan 04, 2022 92   @ South Carolina W 81-76 68%    
  Jan 08, 2022 15   Florida W 75-73 57%    
  Jan 11, 2022 18   @ Alabama L 80-83 38%    
  Jan 15, 2022 74   @ Mississippi W 71-67 65%    
  Jan 19, 2022 154   Georgia W 85-69 93%    
  Jan 22, 2022 12   Kentucky W 77-76 56%    
  Jan 25, 2022 127   @ Missouri W 76-68 77%    
  Jan 29, 2022 35   Oklahoma W 75-70 68%    
  Feb 01, 2022 18   Alabama W 83-80 58%    
  Feb 05, 2022 154   @ Georgia W 82-72 82%    
  Feb 08, 2022 25   @ Arkansas L 79-81 42%    
  Feb 12, 2022 81   Texas A&M W 74-64 82%    
  Feb 16, 2022 80   Vanderbilt W 78-68 81%    
  Feb 19, 2022 15   @ Florida L 72-76 37%    
  Feb 23, 2022 74   Mississippi W 74-64 81%    
  Feb 26, 2022 23   @ Tennessee L 73-76 41%    
  Mar 02, 2022 37   @ Mississippi St. W 72-71 50%    
  Mar 05, 2022 92   South Carolina W 84-73 83%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.6 4.5 5.6 3.7 1.4 0.3 17.3 1st
2nd 0.1 2.1 5.3 4.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 14.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 5.1 4.9 0.9 0.1 12.5 3rd
4th 0.8 4.6 5.2 1.2 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.4 3.5 5.7 1.5 0.1 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 2.2 4.6 2.0 0.1 9.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 4.0 2.4 0.3 7.8 7th
8th 0.5 2.2 2.7 0.4 5.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 2.1 0.6 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.7 11th
12th 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 4.2 6.2 9.8 11.7 14.1 14.2 13.0 10.3 7.5 3.9 1.4 0.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.3% 1.4    1.3 0.1
16-2 95.1% 3.7    3.1 0.6 0.0
15-3 74.7% 5.6    3.5 1.9 0.2
14-4 43.3% 4.5    1.6 2.0 0.9 0.1
13-5 12.2% 1.6    0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.3% 17.3 10.0 5.2 1.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 42.9% 57.1% 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.4% 100.0% 41.8% 58.2% 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.9% 100.0% 31.2% 68.8% 1.6 2.0 1.5 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.5% 100.0% 25.4% 74.6% 2.2 2.2 2.8 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 10.3% 100.0% 18.6% 81.4% 3.0 1.0 2.7 3.5 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.0% 100.0% 15.1% 84.9% 4.0 0.3 1.3 3.2 3.9 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.2% 99.6% 11.0% 88.6% 5.2 0.0 0.5 1.5 2.9 3.4 2.9 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.5%
11-7 14.1% 98.6% 7.0% 91.6% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.4 3.2 2.7 2.0 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.5%
10-8 11.7% 94.6% 4.2% 90.4% 7.7 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.3 2.5 2.0 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.6 94.4%
9-9 9.8% 82.1% 2.8% 79.4% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.5 1.8 1.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 1.8 81.6%
8-10 6.2% 56.5% 2.1% 54.4% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.7 55.6%
7-11 4.2% 26.1% 1.0% 25.2% 10.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 3.1 25.4%
6-12 1.9% 6.3% 1.0% 5.2% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.8 5.3%
5-13 1.0% 2.1% 1.0% 1.0% 12.0 0.0 1.0 1.0%
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 88.3% 11.2% 77.1% 5.4 6.7 9.1 11.0 11.0 10.4 9.7 8.2 7.3 5.8 3.9 3.8 1.3 0.1 11.7 86.8%