Belmont
Ohio Valley
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.6#63
Expected Predictive Rating+11.4#53
Pace74.9#60
Improvement+1.5#58

Offense
Total Offense+5.5#43
First Shot+5.1#41
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#146
Layup/Dunks+4.2#56
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#347
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#44
Freethrows-0.1#185
Improvement-0.2#202

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#103
First Shot+0.9#145
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#104
Layups/Dunks+0.1#192
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#262
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#230
Freethrows+3.1#24
Improvement+1.7#41
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 1.1% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.2% 3.1% 0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 48.4% 51.2% 42.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.8% 7.9% 2.0%
Average Seed 11.6 11.4 12.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 58.4% 61.4% 52.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.9% 2.6% 0.6%
First Round47.5% 50.0% 42.5%
Second Round13.8% 15.5% 10.4%
Sweet Sixteen4.1% 4.8% 2.7%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.3% 0.7%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Neutral) - 66.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 22 - 23 - 4
Quad 36 - 29 - 6
Quad 416 - 125 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 73   @ Ohio L 80-92 41%     0 - 1 -2.1 +5.3 -6.6
  Nov 13, 2021 252   Evansville W 81-43 92%     1 - 1 +30.1 +7.8 +23.7
  Nov 15, 2021 103   Furman W 95-89 OT 72%     2 - 1 +7.5 +5.9 +0.8
  Nov 19, 2021 310   @ Kennesaw St. W 97-78 88%     3 - 1 +13.8 +19.0 -6.0
  Nov 22, 2021 10   @ LSU L 53-83 14%     3 - 2 -10.8 -12.8 +3.3
  Nov 25, 2021 54   Drake W 74-69 46%     4 - 2 +13.6 +3.1 +10.3
  Nov 26, 2021 111   Iona W 72-65 63%     5 - 2 +11.1 +2.1 +8.9
  Nov 28, 2021 120   Dayton W 74-69 66%    
  Dec 02, 2021 221   Lipscomb W 84-71 90%    
  Dec 05, 2021 239   @ Samford W 87-78 79%    
  Dec 07, 2021 60   @ Saint Louis L 75-78 39%    
  Dec 15, 2021 110   Chattanooga W 71-65 72%    
  Dec 30, 2021 328   @ SIU Edwardsville W 82-67 91%    
  Jan 01, 2022 341   @ Eastern Illinois W 82-65 94%    
  Jan 06, 2022 307   Southeast Missouri St. W 89-70 96%    
  Jan 08, 2022 345   @ Tennessee Martin W 86-68 95%    
  Jan 13, 2022 259   Austin Peay W 82-66 92%    
  Jan 15, 2022 86   Murray St. W 74-70 66%    
  Jan 20, 2022 138   @ Morehead St. W 73-71 60%    
  Jan 22, 2022 262   Tennessee Tech W 85-69 92%    
  Jan 27, 2022 259   @ Austin Peay W 79-69 82%    
  Jan 29, 2022 345   Tennessee Martin W 89-65 98%    
  Feb 03, 2022 313   @ Tennessee St. W 85-72 88%    
  Feb 05, 2022 262   @ Tennessee Tech W 82-72 82%    
  Feb 10, 2022 138   Morehead St. W 76-68 78%    
  Feb 12, 2022 307   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 86-73 87%    
  Feb 17, 2022 341   Eastern Illinois W 85-62 98%    
  Feb 19, 2022 328   SIU Edwardsville W 85-64 97%    
  Feb 24, 2022 86   @ Murray St. L 71-73 46%    
  Feb 26, 2022 313   Tennessee St. W 88-69 95%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 15 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.0 9.2 18.6 19.1 9.0 58.4 1st
2nd 0.2 0.7 3.7 8.8 11.0 4.7 29.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 2.5 3.7 2.8 0.4 10.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 1.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.7 7.8 13.6 20.7 23.4 19.1 9.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 9.0    9.0
17-1 100.0% 19.1    17.5 1.6
16-2 79.8% 18.6    12.5 5.9 0.2
15-3 44.5% 9.2    4.1 4.3 0.8
14-4 15.0% 2.0    0.6 1.0 0.4 0.0
13-5 4.0% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 58.4% 58.4 43.8 13.0 1.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 9.0% 80.3% 66.0% 14.3% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.8 42.0%
17-1 19.1% 66.6% 59.9% 6.7% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.3 4.0 4.7 1.5 0.1 6.4 16.8%
16-2 23.4% 52.1% 50.2% 1.9% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 6.6 3.5 0.4 11.2 3.9%
15-3 20.7% 40.8% 40.2% 0.6% 12.6 0.0 0.4 3.8 3.3 0.9 0.1 12.2 1.1%
14-4 13.6% 34.0% 34.0% 13.0 0.0 1.0 2.5 1.0 0.1 9.0
13-5 7.8% 26.3% 26.3% 13.3 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.1 5.8
12-6 3.7% 19.0% 19.0% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 3.0
11-7 1.8% 20.0% 20.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4
10-8 0.6% 8.6% 8.6% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
9-9 0.1% 0.1
8-10 0.1% 0.1
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 48.4% 45.3% 3.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.4 2.6 7.1 17.3 12.3 3.5 0.5 0.0 51.6 5.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 5.1 2.3 2.3 8.0 24.4 29.0 17.6 6.8 5.1 1.7 1.1 1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 77.3% 9.4 11.4 11.4 13.6 18.2 20.5 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 45.0% 9.3 5.0 5.0 10.0 5.0 20.0