Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.9#37
Expected Predictive Rating+11.2#57
Pace64.3#297
Improvement-2.2#330

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#51
First Shot+4.1#60
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#115
Layup/Dunks+5.2#34
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#112
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#271
Freethrows+0.9#122
Improvement-1.6#320

Defense
Total Defense+5.8#42
First Shot+6.5#24
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#230
Layups/Dunks+7.3#8
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#286
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#262
Freethrows+3.1#26
Improvement-0.7#257
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.4% 2.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 9.5% 9.6% 1.3%
Top 6 Seed 21.1% 21.4% 5.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 59.9% 60.4% 31.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 58.1% 58.5% 31.2%
Average Seed 7.5 7.5 8.6
.500 or above 89.9% 90.3% 63.1%
.500 or above in Conference 65.8% 66.1% 43.9%
Conference Champion 5.2% 5.2% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 1.5% 1.9%
First Four6.0% 6.0% 4.5%
First Round56.7% 57.1% 29.3%
Second Round31.7% 32.0% 13.4%
Sweet Sixteen12.9% 13.0% 3.8%
Elite Eight5.2% 5.2% 3.8%
Final Four1.8% 1.8% 1.3%
Championship Game0.7% 0.7% 1.3%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Lamar (Home) - 98.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 9
Quad 25 - 29 - 11
Quad 36 - 115 - 12
Quad 45 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 321   North Alabama W 75-49 97%     1 - 0 +13.7 -0.7 +14.9
  Nov 13, 2021 170   Montana W 86-49 90%     2 - 0 +33.7 +14.4 +20.9
  Nov 17, 2021 225   Detroit Mercy W 77-64 93%     3 - 0 +6.8 +7.0 +1.6
  Nov 21, 2021 138   Morehead St. W 66-46 86%     4 - 0 +19.2 +2.5 +19.5
  Nov 25, 2021 36   Louisville L 58-72 48%     4 - 1 -2.5 -8.5 +6.5
  Nov 27, 2021 76   Richmond W 82-71 OT 66%     5 - 1 +17.7 +8.0 +9.6
  Dec 02, 2021 318   Lamar W 81-58 98%    
  Dec 05, 2021 82   Minnesota W 71-63 76%    
  Dec 11, 2021 41   Colorado St. W 72-71 52%    
  Dec 14, 2021 145   Georgia St. W 78-66 87%    
  Dec 17, 2021 103   Furman W 75-66 81%    
  Dec 20, 2021 161   Winthrop W 79-69 83%    
  Dec 29, 2021 25   Arkansas W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 05, 2022 127   @ Missouri W 68-63 68%    
  Jan 08, 2022 74   @ Mississippi W 64-63 55%    
  Jan 12, 2022 154   Georgia W 76-63 88%    
  Jan 15, 2022 18   Alabama L 73-74 49%    
  Jan 19, 2022 15   @ Florida L 64-71 26%    
  Jan 22, 2022 74   Mississippi W 67-60 74%    
  Jan 25, 2022 12   @ Kentucky L 65-73 24%    
  Jan 29, 2022 17   @ Texas Tech L 63-70 28%    
  Feb 01, 2022 92   South Carolina W 75-67 76%    
  Feb 05, 2022 25   @ Arkansas L 69-75 31%    
  Feb 09, 2022 23   Tennessee W 68-67 49%    
  Feb 12, 2022 10   @ LSU L 66-74 23%    
  Feb 16, 2022 18   @ Alabama L 70-77 28%    
  Feb 19, 2022 127   Missouri W 71-60 84%    
  Feb 23, 2022 92   @ South Carolina W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 26, 2022 80   Vanderbilt W 70-63 73%    
  Mar 02, 2022 20   Auburn L 71-72 50%    
  Mar 05, 2022 81   @ Texas A&M W 64-63 55%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 2.8 2.0 0.5 0.0 6.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 4.1 2.9 0.4 8.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.2 3.7 0.8 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.7 5.0 1.1 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.2 2.7 5.7 2.1 0.1 10.9 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 5.8 3.3 0.3 11.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 4.6 3.9 0.6 0.0 10.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.4 4.2 0.8 0.0 9.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.5 1.0 0.0 6.8 10th
11th 0.2 1.1 2.3 1.1 0.1 4.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.9 1.7 0.9 0.2 3.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 14th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.6 2.1 3.7 5.9 9.7 12.0 13.8 14.1 12.8 10.6 7.3 4.1 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 95.1% 0.8    0.7 0.1
15-3 76.3% 1.6    1.0 0.5 0.1
14-4 40.7% 1.7    0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0
13-5 11.1% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.2% 5.2 2.7 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.8% 100.0% 31.7% 68.3% 2.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.1% 100.0% 21.3% 78.7% 2.9 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 100.0%
14-4 4.1% 100.0% 11.2% 88.8% 4.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 7.3% 99.6% 9.6% 90.0% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
12-6 10.6% 97.5% 8.2% 89.3% 6.6 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.4 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 97.3%
11-7 12.8% 92.3% 5.9% 86.5% 7.9 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.1 1.0 91.8%
10-8 14.1% 79.0% 2.8% 76.2% 9.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 2.0 2.8 2.3 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.0 78.4%
9-9 13.8% 57.7% 1.7% 56.0% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.6 1.9 2.2 0.8 0.0 5.8 57.0%
8-10 12.0% 27.3% 1.0% 26.3% 10.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.3 0.8 0.1 8.7 26.6%
7-11 9.7% 8.5% 0.5% 8.0% 11.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 8.8 8.0%
6-12 5.9% 2.0% 0.2% 1.9% 11.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.8 1.9%
5-13 3.7% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 3.7
4-14 2.1% 2.1
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 59.9% 4.4% 55.6% 7.5 0.9 1.4 2.9 4.2 5.4 6.2 7.5 7.4 8.1 6.7 6.4 2.6 0.2 0.0 40.1 58.1%