Murray St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.1#86
Expected Predictive Rating+6.0#95
Pace65.0#282
Improvement-0.2#206

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#107
First Shot+2.7#102
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#202
Layup/Dunks+4.2#55
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#37
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#200
Freethrows-4.1#349
Improvement-0.2#212

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#72
First Shot+5.0#44
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#259
Layups/Dunks+1.7#122
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#297
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#70
Freethrows+2.0#72
Improvement+0.0#190
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.1% 37.7% 28.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.2% 1.4% 0.2%
Average Seed 12.7 12.6 13.3
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 99.3%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.7% 99.6%
Conference Champion 42.7% 44.6% 33.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.1%
First Round35.9% 37.4% 27.9%
Second Round8.3% 8.9% 5.3%
Sweet Sixteen2.5% 2.7% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Home) - 83.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 34 - 26 - 6
Quad 416 - 122 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 175   Bellarmine W 78-59 82%     1 - 0 +15.5 +5.0 +11.4
  Nov 16, 2021 243   @ Illinois St. W 77-65 76%     2 - 0 +10.9 +3.6 +7.6
  Nov 22, 2021 124   East Tennessee St. L 58-66 63%     2 - 1 -5.2 -10.2 +4.6
  Nov 23, 2021 288   Long Beach St. W 80-43 89%     3 - 1 +29.9 +3.1 +27.1
  Nov 24, 2021 165   James Madison W 74-62 72%     4 - 1 +11.9 +5.1 +7.3
  Dec 04, 2021 185   Middle Tennessee W 71-61 84%    
  Dec 10, 2021 22   @ Memphis L 64-75 16%    
  Dec 18, 2021 110   Chattanooga W 64-59 67%    
  Dec 22, 2021 20   @ Auburn L 66-77 16%    
  Dec 30, 2021 307   Southeast Missouri St. W 80-63 94%    
  Jan 01, 2022 262   Tennessee Tech W 77-62 91%    
  Jan 06, 2022 341   @ Eastern Illinois W 74-58 92%    
  Jan 08, 2022 328   @ SIU Edwardsville W 74-60 89%    
  Jan 13, 2022 313   Tennessee St. W 79-61 94%    
  Jan 15, 2022 63   @ Belmont L 70-74 34%    
  Jan 20, 2022 341   Eastern Illinois W 77-55 97%    
  Jan 22, 2022 345   Tennessee Martin W 80-58 98%    
  Jan 27, 2022 262   @ Tennessee Tech W 74-65 78%    
  Jan 29, 2022 138   Morehead St. W 68-61 74%    
  Feb 03, 2022 259   @ Austin Peay W 71-63 77%    
  Feb 05, 2022 328   SIU Edwardsville W 77-57 96%    
  Feb 10, 2022 313   @ Tennessee St. W 76-64 84%    
  Feb 12, 2022 138   @ Morehead St. W 65-64 54%    
  Feb 17, 2022 259   Austin Peay W 74-60 90%    
  Feb 19, 2022 345   @ Tennessee Martin W 77-61 92%    
  Feb 24, 2022 63   Belmont W 73-71 55%    
  Feb 26, 2022 307   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 77-66 84%    
Projected Record 21 - 6 15 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.8 7.8 14.6 13.2 5.1 42.7 1st
2nd 0.2 1.1 5.4 11.3 12.6 5.2 35.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.7 4.1 5.6 3.8 0.5 16.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.6 6.4 11.6 16.8 20.9 19.8 13.2 5.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 5.1    5.1
17-1 100.0% 13.2    11.6 1.6
16-2 73.6% 14.6    9.0 5.4 0.2
15-3 37.3% 7.8    3.2 3.9 0.8
14-4 10.5% 1.8    0.5 0.9 0.4 0.0
13-5 2.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 42.7% 42.7 29.4 11.9 1.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 5.1% 70.0% 62.5% 7.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.5 20.0%
17-1 13.2% 58.3% 55.9% 2.4% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.3 3.0 2.3 0.4 5.5 5.5%
16-2 19.8% 44.6% 44.2% 0.4% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.1 4.0 1.1 0.1 11.0 0.7%
15-3 20.9% 35.3% 35.3% 13.2 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.1 2.2 0.4 0.0 13.6
14-4 16.8% 27.7% 27.7% 13.6 0.5 1.7 1.8 0.6 0.0 12.2
13-5 11.6% 19.8% 19.8% 14.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.0 9.3
12-6 6.4% 17.8% 17.8% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 5.2
11-7 3.6% 11.3% 11.3% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 3.2
10-8 1.6% 5.2% 5.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.5
9-9 0.7% 7.0% 7.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.7
8-10 0.3% 0.3
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 36.1% 35.3% 0.8% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 2.7 9.3 12.1 7.4 2.4 0.2 63.9 1.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 4.3 4.2 4.2 8.3 50.0 12.5 12.5 8.3