Xavier
Big East
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.6#40
Expected Predictive Rating+14.4#25
Pace70.2#155
Improvement+1.4#60

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#65
First Shot+4.4#48
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#176
Layup/Dunks+4.4#53
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#259
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#95
Freethrows-1.0#244
Improvement+1.9#28

Defense
Total Defense+6.2#38
First Shot+9.2#8
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#326
Layups/Dunks+0.1#194
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#4
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#136
Freethrows+3.4#14
Improvement-0.4#240
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.9% 3.0% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 11.2% 11.4% 3.1%
Top 6 Seed 25.2% 25.6% 10.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 67.8% 68.5% 39.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 64.8% 65.5% 36.0%
Average Seed 7.3 7.3 8.2
.500 or above 91.1% 91.5% 70.2%
.500 or above in Conference 72.0% 72.5% 50.4%
Conference Champion 7.7% 7.7% 4.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 2.1% 7.0%
First Four4.9% 4.9% 6.6%
First Round65.1% 65.8% 36.0%
Second Round36.7% 37.2% 16.7%
Sweet Sixteen13.7% 13.9% 4.8%
Elite Eight5.1% 5.2% 1.8%
Final Four1.8% 1.8% 0.9%
Championship Game0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Michigan (Home) - 97.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 7
Quad 26 - 311 - 11
Quad 36 - 116 - 12
Quad 45 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 224   Niagara W 63-60 93%     1 - 0 -3.1 -11.8 +8.8
  Nov 12, 2021 143   Kent St. W 73-59 86%     2 - 0 +13.0 +1.8 +11.8
  Nov 18, 2021 29   Ohio St. W 71-65 54%     3 - 0 +15.5 +1.4 +14.2
  Nov 21, 2021 257   Norfolk St. W 88-48 95%     4 - 0 +31.7 +4.2 +23.9
  Nov 24, 2021 61   Iowa St. L 70-82 61%     4 - 1 -4.3 +2.0 -6.2
  Nov 26, 2021 28   Virginia Tech W 59-58 41%     5 - 1 +14.0 +1.1 +13.0
  Dec 01, 2021 299   Central Michigan W 86-65 98%    
  Dec 05, 2021 34   @ Oklahoma St. L 68-72 35%    
  Dec 08, 2021 212   Ball St. W 82-66 93%    
  Dec 11, 2021 57   Cincinnati W 70-65 70%    
  Dec 15, 2021 138   Morehead St. W 72-61 85%    
  Dec 18, 2021 69   Marquette W 77-71 72%    
  Dec 21, 2021 8   @ Villanova L 65-74 19%    
  Dec 28, 2021 13   Connecticut L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 04, 2022 139   @ Georgetown W 74-69 68%    
  Jan 07, 2022 104   @ Butler W 66-63 62%    
  Jan 12, 2022 8   Villanova L 68-71 39%    
  Jan 15, 2022 87   Creighton W 75-67 75%    
  Jan 19, 2022 100   @ DePaul W 75-72 58%    
  Jan 23, 2022 69   @ Marquette W 75-74 51%    
  Jan 26, 2022 55   Providence W 72-67 68%    
  Jan 29, 2022 87   @ Creighton W 72-70 55%    
  Feb 02, 2022 104   Butler W 69-60 80%    
  Feb 05, 2022 100   DePaul W 78-69 77%    
  Feb 09, 2022 27   @ Seton Hall L 67-73 31%    
  Feb 16, 2022 62   St. John's W 79-73 70%    
  Feb 19, 2022 13   @ Connecticut L 67-74 26%    
  Feb 23, 2022 55   @ Providence L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 26, 2022 27   Seton Hall W 71-70 52%    
  Mar 02, 2022 62   @ St. John's L 76-77 50%    
  Mar 05, 2022 139   Georgetown W 77-66 84%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 2.2 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 7.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.0 4.2 4.2 1.9 0.4 0.1 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.8 5.9 4.1 1.3 0.2 16.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.4 5.0 5.8 3.5 0.5 0.1 16.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 4.8 4.9 2.1 0.3 0.0 13.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 4.0 3.9 1.3 0.1 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.5 2.9 0.9 0.1 8.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 2.4 2.4 0.6 0.1 6.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.7 3.1 5.2 7.6 9.4 11.2 12.3 12.3 11.8 9.6 7.3 4.2 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 93.3% 0.8    0.8 0.1
17-3 79.6% 1.6    1.2 0.4 0.0
16-4 50.9% 2.2    1.2 0.9 0.1
15-5 23.8% 1.7    0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0
14-6 7.9% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.7% 7.7 4.2 2.6 0.7 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 0.1 0.0
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 34.4% 65.6% 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.9% 100.0% 33.3% 66.7% 2.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.1% 100.0% 27.2% 72.8% 2.7 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.2% 100.0% 24.8% 75.2% 3.7 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 7.3% 100.0% 20.4% 79.6% 4.9 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 1.9 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 9.6% 99.4% 15.6% 83.8% 6.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.9 2.5 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
13-7 11.8% 97.9% 11.4% 86.5% 7.3 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.1 3.1 2.5 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.3 97.6%
12-8 12.3% 94.2% 7.2% 87.1% 8.4 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 2.9 2.8 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.7 93.8%
11-9 12.3% 82.2% 5.6% 76.6% 9.2 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.7 2.6 2.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 2.2 81.1%
10-10 11.2% 61.1% 3.8% 57.3% 10.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.9 1.9 0.6 0.0 4.4 59.6%
9-11 9.4% 29.4% 1.9% 27.5% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 6.6 28.0%
8-12 7.6% 7.4% 1.3% 6.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 7.0 6.2%
7-13 5.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 0.6%
6-14 3.1% 0.3% 0.3% 13.0 0.0 3.1
5-15 1.7% 1.7
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 67.8% 8.7% 59.2% 7.3 1.1 1.9 3.5 4.8 6.1 7.9 8.7 9.1 9.2 7.7 5.9 1.9 0.1 0.0 32.2 64.8%