Memphis
American Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.8#22
Expected Predictive Rating+13.2#38
Pace80.4#16
Improvement-2.6#336

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#64
First Shot+2.0#120
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#55
Layup/Dunks+2.3#93
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#242
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#165
Freethrows+0.9#119
Improvement-2.2#340

Defense
Total Defense+9.4#2
First Shot+9.8#7
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#210
Layups/Dunks+6.0#23
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#13
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#90
Freethrows-2.3#299
Improvement-0.4#228
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.8% 0.1%
#1 Seed 4.0% 4.6% 1.3%
Top 2 Seed 10.0% 11.5% 3.3%
Top 4 Seed 26.2% 29.0% 13.3%
Top 6 Seed 43.1% 46.9% 26.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.3% 88.7% 75.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 81.5% 84.4% 69.5%
Average Seed 6.4 6.2 7.5
.500 or above 99.5% 99.7% 98.2%
.500 or above in Conference 97.2% 97.7% 94.7%
Conference Champion 30.1% 31.9% 21.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four4.2% 3.9% 5.5%
First Round84.3% 86.8% 73.0%
Second Round57.6% 60.6% 44.1%
Sweet Sixteen27.3% 29.4% 17.8%
Elite Eight12.7% 14.0% 6.7%
Final Four5.5% 6.1% 2.8%
Championship Game2.3% 2.6% 1.4%
National Champion1.0% 1.1% 0.3%

Next Game: Georgia (Away) - 81.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 22 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 4
Quad 26 - 210 - 7
Quad 39 - 119 - 8
Quad 46 - 024 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 262   Tennessee Tech W 89-65 97%     1 - 0 +15.6 +9.8 +5.4
  Nov 13, 2021 336   NC Central W 90-51 99%     2 - 0 +24.5 -1.5 +20.3
  Nov 16, 2021 60   Saint Louis W 90-74 80%     3 - 0 +20.7 +4.7 +13.5
  Nov 19, 2021 123   Western Kentucky W 74-62 90%     4 - 0 +11.8 -7.3 +17.7
  Nov 24, 2021 28   Virginia Tech W 69-61 53%     5 - 0 +21.0 +3.3 +17.7
  Nov 26, 2021 61   Iowa St. L 59-78 72%     5 - 1 -11.3 -10.6 +0.1
  Dec 01, 2021 154   @ Georgia W 81-71 82%    
  Dec 04, 2021 74   @ Mississippi W 70-66 65%    
  Dec 10, 2021 86   Murray St. W 75-64 84%    
  Dec 14, 2021 18   Alabama W 81-79 59%    
  Dec 18, 2021 23   Tennessee W 74-73 50%    
  Dec 21, 2021 334   Alabama St. W 88-60 99%    
  Dec 29, 2021 162   @ Tulane W 76-65 83%    
  Jan 01, 2022 58   @ Wichita St. W 70-68 58%    
  Jan 04, 2022 135   Tulsa W 78-64 90%    
  Jan 09, 2022 57   Cincinnati W 74-66 78%    
  Jan 12, 2022 66   @ Central Florida W 74-71 61%    
  Jan 15, 2022 177   @ East Carolina W 79-68 85%    
  Jan 20, 2022 94   SMU W 82-71 84%    
  Jan 23, 2022 135   @ Tulsa W 75-67 77%    
  Jan 27, 2022 177   East Carolina W 82-65 93%    
  Feb 03, 2022 57   @ Cincinnati W 71-69 59%    
  Feb 05, 2022 66   Central Florida W 77-68 79%    
  Feb 09, 2022 162   Tulane W 79-62 92%    
  Feb 12, 2022 7   @ Houston L 65-72 28%    
  Feb 20, 2022 94   @ SMU W 79-74 68%    
  Feb 24, 2022 151   Temple W 81-65 91%    
  Feb 27, 2022 58   Wichita St. W 73-65 77%    
  Mar 03, 2022 207   @ South Florida W 68-55 86%    
  Mar 06, 2022 7   Houston L 68-69 48%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 3.8 8.1 9.7 5.7 1.7 30.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.6 9.8 11.9 7.5 1.7 35.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.6 6.5 4.6 1.3 0.0 16.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 8.8 4th
5th 0.2 1.4 2.1 1.0 0.1 4.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.9 5.7 9.0 12.3 15.7 17.1 15.7 11.4 5.7 1.7 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.7    1.7
17-1 100.0% 5.7    5.3 0.5
16-2 85.1% 9.7    7.0 2.7 0.0
15-3 51.9% 8.1    4.4 3.5 0.2
14-4 22.3% 3.8    1.4 2.0 0.4 0.0
13-5 6.0% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.1% 30.1 19.9 9.0 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.7% 100.0% 60.7% 39.3% 1.7 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 5.7% 100.0% 49.9% 50.1% 2.3 1.8 1.9 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 11.4% 99.8% 42.2% 57.7% 3.4 0.9 2.5 3.1 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-3 15.7% 99.6% 34.2% 65.4% 4.9 0.4 0.9 2.4 3.6 2.9 2.4 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
14-4 17.1% 98.1% 26.5% 71.6% 6.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.6 3.0 3.5 2.5 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.3 97.4%
13-5 15.7% 93.2% 22.5% 70.7% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.8 2.5 3.1 2.6 1.9 1.1 0.1 1.1 91.2%
12-6 12.3% 83.8% 16.6% 67.3% 9.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 2.0 2.4 2.3 1.6 0.3 0.0 2.0 80.6%
11-7 9.0% 67.2% 12.6% 54.6% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.7 1.6 0.5 0.0 2.9 62.5%
10-8 5.7% 53.4% 9.5% 43.9% 10.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.6 48.5%
9-9 2.9% 28.9% 7.1% 21.8% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.1 23.4%
8-10 1.6% 15.2% 4.9% 10.4% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.4 10.9%
7-11 0.7% 7.0% 4.2% 2.8% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.9%
6-12 0.3% 3.4% 3.4% 14.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 86.3% 26.1% 60.2% 6.4 4.0 6.0 7.4 8.7 8.4 8.6 9.2 9.4 9.0 7.8 6.0 1.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.7 81.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.3 76.1 21.7 2.2