Davidson
Atlantic 10
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.0#73
Expected Predictive Rating+6.2#96
Pace63.2#318
Improvement-0.8#239

Offense
Total Offense+5.4#44
First Shot+6.1#27
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#228
Layup/Dunks+0.3#156
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#169
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#41
Freethrows+0.4#157
Improvement+0.1#167

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#117
First Shot+1.5#123
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#172
Layups/Dunks+4.1#45
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#252
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#265
Freethrows+0.5#164
Improvement-0.9#262
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.9% 18.1% 10.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.0% 7.1% 3.0%
Average Seed 10.8 10.8 12.0
.500 or above 96.3% 96.6% 85.1%
.500 or above in Conference 88.8% 89.1% 78.5%
Conference Champion 16.7% 16.9% 10.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
First Four3.3% 3.3% 2.8%
First Round16.4% 16.5% 10.4%
Second Round5.7% 5.8% 2.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 1.7% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: William & Mary (Home) - 97.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 23 - 34 - 6
Quad 38 - 311 - 9
Quad 49 - 121 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 161   Delaware W 93-71 82%     1 - 0 +19.4 +16.8 +3.0
  Nov 13, 2021 49   @ San Francisco L 60-65 30%     1 - 1 +7.3 -5.6 +12.8
  Nov 18, 2021 102   New Mexico St. L 64-75 60%     1 - 2 -6.7 -2.6 -5.1
  Nov 19, 2021 189   Penn W 72-60 78%     2 - 2 +10.7 +8.5 +4.0
  Nov 21, 2021 178   East Carolina W 76-67 77%     3 - 2 +8.1 +6.1 +2.5
  Nov 27, 2021 290   Robert Morris W 88-70 93%     4 - 2 +8.0 +9.1 -1.1
  Nov 30, 2021 223   @ Charlotte W 75-58 74%     5 - 2 +17.3 +8.6 +10.3
  Dec 04, 2021 332   William & Mary W 79-58 98%    
  Dec 12, 2021 148   @ Northeastern W 64-61 60%    
  Dec 18, 2021 248   Radford W 72-57 92%    
  Dec 22, 2021 33   Loyola Chicago L 64-66 43%    
  Dec 30, 2021 194   Duquesne W 75-64 85%    
  Jan 02, 2022 85   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 60-63 41%    
  Jan 05, 2022 220   @ Saint Joseph's W 77-71 72%    
  Jan 08, 2022 78   Rhode Island W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 11, 2022 116   Massachusetts W 81-74 72%    
  Jan 14, 2022 83   @ Richmond L 71-74 41%    
  Jan 22, 2022 246   @ Fordham W 70-61 78%    
  Jan 26, 2022 85   Virginia Commonwealth W 63-60 62%    
  Jan 29, 2022 244   La Salle W 75-61 90%    
  Feb 01, 2022 39   @ St. Bonaventure L 62-69 28%    
  Feb 05, 2022 262   @ George Washington W 72-62 81%    
  Feb 09, 2022 220   Saint Joseph's W 80-68 85%    
  Feb 12, 2022 78   @ Rhode Island L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 19, 2022 56   Saint Louis W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 23, 2022 194   @ Duquesne W 72-67 69%    
  Feb 26, 2022 246   Fordham W 73-58 90%    
  Mar 02, 2022 115   George Mason W 73-66 72%    
  Mar 05, 2022 113   @ Dayton W 66-65 52%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 4.4 5.5 3.2 1.6 0.2 16.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 2.1 5.8 6.6 2.5 0.4 0.0 17.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 5.7 5.6 1.6 0.1 14.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.3 5.8 1.5 0.1 12.6 4th
5th 0.4 3.0 5.2 1.8 0.1 10.5 5th
6th 0.2 1.5 4.9 2.2 0.2 8.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 3.5 2.3 0.2 6.8 7th
8th 0.5 2.1 1.8 0.4 4.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 2.0 0.5 4.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.0 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 3.3 5.6 7.7 11.7 13.0 15.6 14.7 12.7 8.1 3.6 1.6 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 98.5% 1.6    1.5 0.1
16-2 87.8% 3.2    2.5 0.7 0.0
15-3 68.5% 5.5    3.4 1.8 0.4
14-4 34.6% 4.4    1.2 2.1 1.0 0.1
13-5 11.7% 1.7    0.2 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.7% 16.7 9.0 5.3 2.0 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 79.4% 20.6% 58.9% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 74.1%
17-1 1.6% 89.1% 36.2% 53.0% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 83.0%
16-2 3.6% 67.1% 32.3% 34.8% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.2 51.5%
15-3 8.1% 46.7% 25.1% 21.6% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 0.9 0.1 4.3 28.8%
14-4 12.7% 31.4% 21.1% 10.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 8.7 13.2%
13-5 14.7% 17.0% 12.5% 4.4% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.1 0.0 12.2 5.1%
12-6 15.6% 11.8% 10.7% 1.1% 12.1 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 13.7 1.3%
11-7 13.0% 7.7% 7.5% 0.2% 12.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 12.0 0.2%
10-8 11.7% 4.8% 4.7% 0.0% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 11.1 0.0%
9-9 7.7% 0.7% 0.7% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6
8-10 5.6% 1.5% 1.5% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.5
7-11 3.3% 0.6% 0.6% 14.0 0.0 3.3
6-12 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 15.0 0.0 1.3
5-13 0.7% 0.7
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.9% 11.7% 6.2% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.1 5.1 5.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 82.1 7.0%