South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#157
Expected Predictive Rating+7.2#83
Pace68.6#201
Improvement+0.0#183

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#192
First Shot+1.1#142
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#281
Layup/Dunks+9.4#8
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#278
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#284
Freethrows-2.7#320
Improvement+0.6#102

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#123
First Shot+1.6#119
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#207
Layups/Dunks-1.9#255
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#122
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#215
Freethrows+3.3#15
Improvement-0.6#254
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.8% 16.1% 10.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.4
.500 or above 75.8% 80.4% 60.0%
.500 or above in Conference 76.2% 78.8% 67.3%
Conference Champion 19.1% 21.0% 12.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 2.3% 3.4%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.8%
First Round14.6% 15.9% 10.0%
Second Round1.8% 2.0% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Miss (Home) - 77.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 36 - 56 - 9
Quad 411 - 317 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 58   @ Wichita St. L 58-64 16%     0 - 1 +5.3 -4.5 +9.7
  Nov 16, 2021 18   @ Alabama L 68-73 7%     0 - 2 +12.5 -6.0 +19.2
  Nov 25, 2021 142   San Diego W 68-67 45%     1 - 2 +3.0 -2.6 +5.7
  Nov 26, 2021 186   Hawaii W 72-69 57%     2 - 2 +1.8 -2.0 +3.9
  Dec 01, 2021 247   Southern Miss W 70-62 77%    
  Dec 04, 2021 150   @ Jacksonville St. L 65-69 36%    
  Dec 14, 2021 180   Tarleton St. W 65-61 66%    
  Dec 17, 2021 180   @ Tarleton St. L 62-64 44%    
  Dec 21, 2021 328   SIU Edwardsville W 76-62 90%    
  Dec 30, 2021 263   @ Texas Arlington W 70-67 62%    
  Jan 01, 2022 156   @ Texas St. L 63-66 38%    
  Jan 06, 2022 172   Appalachian St. W 67-63 64%    
  Jan 08, 2022 223   Coastal Carolina W 74-67 72%    
  Jan 13, 2022 145   Georgia St. W 75-73 57%    
  Jan 15, 2022 178   Georgia Southern W 68-64 66%    
  Jan 20, 2022 183   @ Louisiana L 73-74 45%    
  Jan 22, 2022 272   @ Louisiana Monroe W 74-70 63%    
  Jan 27, 2022 227   Troy W 71-64 72%    
  Jan 29, 2022 227   @ Troy W 68-67 54%    
  Feb 03, 2022 178   @ Georgia Southern L 65-67 45%    
  Feb 05, 2022 145   @ Georgia St. L 72-76 36%    
  Feb 10, 2022 283   Arkansas Little Rock W 75-65 82%    
  Feb 12, 2022 245   Arkansas St. W 73-65 76%    
  Feb 17, 2022 223   @ Coastal Carolina W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 19, 2022 172   @ Appalachian St. L 64-66 44%    
  Feb 24, 2022 156   Texas St. W 66-63 60%    
  Feb 26, 2022 263   Texas Arlington W 73-64 78%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 3.5 5.3 4.7 3.0 1.1 0.3 19.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 4.4 5.4 2.3 0.5 0.0 14.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 4.6 5.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.0 4.9 1.6 0.1 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.3 2.7 4.8 1.4 0.1 9.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 4.6 2.0 0.1 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.3 2.5 0.4 7.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.5 2.5 0.5 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.2 0.5 0.0 4.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.5 0.6 0.1 3.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.1 2.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.2 12th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.7 4.1 6.4 8.6 10.8 12.3 12.6 12.1 11.0 7.8 5.3 3.1 1.1 0.3 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1
16-2 98.7% 3.0    2.8 0.2
15-3 89.5% 4.7    3.9 0.8 0.0
14-4 67.4% 5.3    3.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-5 32.1% 3.5    1.1 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 8.8% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.1% 19.1 12.5 4.6 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 76.9% 73.1% 3.8% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14.3%
17-1 1.1% 51.3% 48.7% 2.7% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 5.2%
16-2 3.1% 45.0% 44.6% 0.3% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.7 0.6%
15-3 5.3% 34.0% 34.0% 13.2 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 3.5
14-4 7.8% 30.9% 30.9% 13.8 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.4 5.4
13-5 11.0% 23.3% 23.3% 14.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.8 0.0 8.4
12-6 12.1% 17.4% 17.4% 14.4 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.1 10.0
11-7 12.6% 12.9% 12.9% 14.6 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.2 11.0
10-8 12.3% 8.9% 8.9% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 11.2
9-9 10.8% 5.4% 5.4% 15.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 10.2
8-10 8.6% 3.3% 3.3% 15.7 0.1 0.2 8.3
7-11 6.4% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.3
6-12 4.1% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 4.1
5-13 2.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.7
4-14 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.2% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 14.8% 14.7% 0.1% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.2 4.9 4.0 1.2 85.2 0.1%