Alabama
Southeastern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.5#18
Expected Predictive Rating+11.8#50
Pace80.5#14
Improvement-1.9#310

Offense
Total Offense+8.1#16
First Shot+3.4#78
After Offensive Rebound+4.7#5
Layup/Dunks+2.5#89
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#310
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#81
Freethrows+0.3#159
Improvement-1.6#319

Defense
Total Defense+6.4#35
First Shot+6.8#21
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#209
Layups/Dunks+5.5#32
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#329
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#67
Freethrows+0.9#137
Improvement-0.3#220
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.4% 2.7% 1.0%
#1 Seed 10.2% 11.4% 4.2%
Top 2 Seed 23.0% 25.2% 12.2%
Top 4 Seed 46.9% 50.0% 31.6%
Top 6 Seed 65.8% 69.0% 49.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 87.7% 89.7% 77.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 85.8% 88.0% 75.3%
Average Seed 4.7 4.6 5.7
.500 or above 92.6% 94.5% 83.1%
.500 or above in Conference 84.9% 86.4% 77.3%
Conference Champion 15.9% 16.9% 11.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 0.7%
First Four3.6% 3.2% 5.4%
First Round85.9% 88.1% 75.0%
Second Round65.2% 67.4% 54.0%
Sweet Sixteen36.5% 38.4% 27.0%
Elite Eight17.8% 18.9% 12.3%
Final Four8.6% 9.1% 5.6%
Championship Game3.8% 4.1% 2.6%
National Champion1.7% 1.8% 1.0%

Next Game: Miami (FL) (Neutral) - 83.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 28 - 9
Quad 26 - 213 - 11
Quad 36 - 120 - 12
Quad 42 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 112   Louisiana Tech W 93-64 89%     1 - 0 +29.9 +16.1 +13.0
  Nov 12, 2021 59   South Dakota St. W 104-88 82%     2 - 0 +20.8 +15.5 +3.1
  Nov 16, 2021 157   South Alabama W 73-68 93%     3 - 0 +2.7 -9.8 +11.8
  Nov 19, 2021 125   Oakland W 86-59 91%     4 - 0 +26.8 +12.9 +13.3
  Nov 25, 2021 111   Iona L 68-72 83%     4 - 1 +0.1 -5.0 +5.4
  Nov 26, 2021 54   Drake W 80-71 71%     5 - 1 +17.6 +7.2 +10.0
  Nov 28, 2021 106   Miami (FL) W 84-74 83%    
  Dec 03, 2021 1   Gonzaga L 82-91 21%    
  Dec 11, 2021 7   Houston W 72-71 51%    
  Dec 14, 2021 22   @ Memphis L 79-81 41%    
  Dec 18, 2021 150   Jacksonville St. W 82-66 93%    
  Dec 20, 2021 41   Colorado St. W 84-80 65%    
  Dec 29, 2021 23   Tennessee W 79-75 63%    
  Jan 05, 2022 15   @ Florida L 75-78 39%    
  Jan 08, 2022 127   @ Missouri W 79-70 79%    
  Jan 11, 2022 20   Auburn W 83-80 62%    
  Jan 15, 2022 37   @ Mississippi St. W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 19, 2022 10   LSU W 80-79 55%    
  Jan 22, 2022 127   Missouri W 82-67 90%    
  Jan 25, 2022 154   @ Georgia W 85-74 83%    
  Jan 29, 2022 3   Baylor L 78-79 46%    
  Feb 01, 2022 20   @ Auburn L 80-83 42%    
  Feb 05, 2022 12   Kentucky W 80-78 57%    
  Feb 09, 2022 74   @ Mississippi W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 12, 2022 25   Arkansas W 85-81 64%    
  Feb 16, 2022 37   Mississippi St. W 77-70 72%    
  Feb 19, 2022 12   @ Kentucky L 77-81 36%    
  Feb 22, 2022 80   @ Vanderbilt W 78-73 67%    
  Feb 26, 2022 92   South Carolina W 88-76 85%    
  Mar 02, 2022 81   Texas A&M W 77-66 83%    
  Mar 05, 2022 10   @ LSU L 77-82 34%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.7 4.4 5.0 3.4 1.1 0.2 15.9 1st
2nd 0.2 2.0 5.4 4.8 1.5 0.1 13.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 5.1 4.6 1.0 0.0 12.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 5.1 4.7 1.0 0.1 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.4 5.4 1.3 0.1 10.7 5th
6th 0.2 2.4 5.1 2.4 0.1 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 4.1 2.6 0.1 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.7 0.5 0.0 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.2 0.7 0.0 4.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.7 0.0 3.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.1 4.4 6.9 10.3 12.4 14.5 13.5 12.7 10.3 6.5 3.5 1.1 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 97.4% 3.4    2.9 0.5
15-3 76.9% 5.0    3.3 1.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 42.7% 4.4    1.5 2.0 0.9 0.1
13-5 13.2% 1.7    0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.9% 15.9 9.2 4.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 0.2 0.0
17-1 1.1% 100.0% 43.0% 57.0% 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.5% 100.0% 40.5% 59.5% 1.4 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 6.5% 100.0% 30.1% 69.9% 1.8 2.9 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 10.3% 100.0% 24.8% 75.2% 2.4 2.3 3.8 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.7% 99.9% 18.5% 81.4% 3.1 1.2 3.3 3.6 2.8 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 13.5% 99.9% 12.6% 87.3% 4.2 0.3 1.4 2.9 3.5 2.6 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-7 14.5% 99.3% 7.2% 92.1% 5.3 0.0 0.5 1.3 2.9 3.4 2.8 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.3%
10-8 12.4% 96.1% 4.9% 91.3% 6.6 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 2.3 2.1 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.5 95.9%
9-9 10.3% 84.3% 3.7% 80.6% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 1.6 83.7%
8-10 6.9% 52.7% 3.2% 49.5% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.1 3.3 51.1%
7-11 4.4% 27.4% 1.4% 26.0% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 3.2 26.4%
6-12 2.1% 7.5% 0.5% 7.0% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.0 7.0%
5-13 1.0% 1.0
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 87.7% 12.8% 74.8% 4.7 10.2 12.8 12.0 11.9 10.8 8.1 6.6 4.6 3.4 2.7 2.4 2.0 0.3 12.4 85.8%