Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#172
Expected Predictive Rating-2.9#219
Pace62.5#328
Improvement+0.2#163

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#199
First Shot+1.4#134
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#299
Layup/Dunks-5.9#337
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#104
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#22
Freethrows-1.0#240
Improvement-0.4#237

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#159
First Shot-2.0#243
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#52
Layups/Dunks-0.5#211
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#296
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#243
Freethrows+1.9#82
Improvement+0.6#118
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.0% 11.7% 8.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 45.3% 50.7% 26.9%
.500 or above in Conference 70.8% 73.3% 62.4%
Conference Champion 13.0% 14.2% 8.8%
Last Place in Conference 3.5% 2.9% 5.6%
First Four1.0% 0.8% 1.5%
First Round10.7% 11.5% 7.9%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hartford (Home) - 77.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 65 - 11
Quad 49 - 414 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 111   @ Iona L 53-65 24%     0 - 1 -4.9 -10.2 +4.5
  Nov 12, 2021 124   East Tennessee St. W 69-67 49%     1 - 1 +1.8 +4.4 -2.4
  Nov 18, 2021 198   Charlotte L 66-67 66%     1 - 2 -5.8 -5.3 -0.5
  Nov 22, 2021 160   Delaware L 68-75 46%     1 - 3 -6.5 -1.2 -6.1
  Nov 23, 2021 166   Akron W 57-45 49%     2 - 3 +11.9 -12.1 +24.6
  Nov 24, 2021 107   Vermont L 63-65 32%     2 - 4 +2.3 +6.5 -4.6
  Nov 29, 2021 258   Hartford W 71-63 77%    
  Dec 10, 2021 103   @ Furman L 65-73 23%    
  Dec 16, 2021 4   @ Duke L 58-80 2%    
  Dec 21, 2021 44   @ North Carolina L 67-80 11%    
  Dec 30, 2021 183   Louisiana W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 01, 2022 272   Louisiana Monroe W 73-64 79%    
  Jan 06, 2022 157   @ South Alabama L 63-67 36%    
  Jan 08, 2022 227   @ Troy L 64-65 49%    
  Jan 13, 2022 223   Coastal Carolina W 70-65 68%    
  Jan 15, 2022 223   @ Coastal Carolina L 67-68 48%    
  Jan 20, 2022 145   @ Georgia St. L 68-73 31%    
  Jan 22, 2022 178   @ Georgia Southern L 62-65 40%    
  Jan 27, 2022 245   Arkansas St. W 70-63 72%    
  Jan 29, 2022 283   Arkansas Little Rock W 72-63 79%    
  Feb 03, 2022 156   @ Texas St. L 60-64 37%    
  Feb 05, 2022 263   @ Texas Arlington W 66-64 58%    
  Feb 10, 2022 178   Georgia Southern W 65-62 60%    
  Feb 12, 2022 145   Georgia St. W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 17, 2022 227   Troy W 67-61 69%    
  Feb 19, 2022 157   South Alabama W 66-64 56%    
  Feb 24, 2022 283   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 69-66 61%    
  Feb 25, 2022 245   @ Arkansas St. W 67-66 53%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 2.8 4.0 3.0 1.7 0.6 0.1 13.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 4.1 4.4 2.0 0.5 0.1 12.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 4.9 4.6 1.5 0.3 12.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.1 4.9 1.6 0.2 11.4 4th
5th 0.4 3.1 5.6 1.7 0.1 10.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 5.3 2.1 0.1 9.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 4.3 2.8 0.2 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.0 3.0 0.5 0.0 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.7 0.8 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.1 0.9 0.1 4.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.7 0.1 3.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.7 12th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.4 5.1 7.9 10.4 12.5 13.3 12.7 11.2 8.9 6.2 3.5 1.7 0.6 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6
16-2 96.5% 1.7    1.5 0.1 0.0
15-3 84.9% 3.0    2.5 0.5 0.0
14-4 63.6% 4.0    2.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 31.8% 2.8    1.0 1.1 0.6 0.1
12-6 7.6% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.0% 13.0 7.8 3.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.6% 46.8% 46.8% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.7% 39.8% 39.8% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.0
15-3 3.5% 28.4% 28.4% 13.6 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 2.5
14-4 6.2% 26.4% 26.4% 14.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.0 4.6
13-5 8.9% 23.1% 23.1% 14.4 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.1 6.8
12-6 11.2% 16.0% 16.0% 14.8 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.2 9.4
11-7 12.7% 12.2% 12.2% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 11.2
10-8 13.3% 5.7% 5.7% 15.3 0.0 0.5 0.3 12.5
9-9 12.5% 4.0% 4.0% 15.8 0.1 0.4 12.0
8-10 10.4% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.3 10.0
7-11 7.9% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.2 7.7
6-12 5.1% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 5.0
5-13 3.4% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 3.3
4-14 1.6% 1.6
3-15 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.1 4.0 2.1 89.0 0.0%