Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#156
Expected Predictive Rating+4.2#120
Pace60.4#345
Improvement+0.3#146

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#154
First Shot+2.2#112
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#268
Layup/Dunks+0.2#160
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#29
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#270
Freethrows+1.2#95
Improvement-0.3#223

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#174
First Shot-1.5#233
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#92
Layups/Dunks+4.0#48
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#61
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#322
Freethrows-3.2#326
Improvement+0.7#106
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.9% 18.7% 12.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.0 14.6
.500 or above 83.1% 91.6% 76.9%
.500 or above in Conference 82.0% 87.2% 78.2%
Conference Champion 22.3% 27.9% 18.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.2% 2.2%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round14.8% 18.6% 12.1%
Second Round1.5% 1.9% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rice (Away) - 42.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 34 - 44 - 8
Quad 413 - 318 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 349   @ Incarnate Word W 75-57 87%     1 - 0 +6.4 +4.4 +4.5
  Nov 12, 2021 10   @ LSU L 59-84 5%     1 - 1 -5.8 -1.1 -6.1
  Nov 14, 2021 80   @ Vanderbilt L 60-79 20%     1 - 2 -9.4 -3.5 -6.9
  Nov 19, 2021 301   Dixie St. W 85-65 79%     2 - 2 +12.2 +7.1 +5.1
  Nov 20, 2021 237   Eastern Washington W 81-74 67%     3 - 2 +3.2 +3.0 +0.0
  Nov 30, 2021 169   @ Rice L 70-72 42%    
  Dec 05, 2021 324   Denver W 72-58 90%    
  Dec 15, 2021 318   Lamar W 74-61 87%    
  Dec 22, 2021 7   @ Houston L 52-72 3%    
  Dec 30, 2021 227   Troy W 68-61 74%    
  Jan 01, 2022 157   South Alabama W 66-63 62%    
  Jan 06, 2022 178   @ Georgia Southern L 62-64 44%    
  Jan 08, 2022 145   @ Georgia St. L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 13, 2022 272   Louisiana Monroe W 73-63 81%    
  Jan 15, 2022 183   Louisiana W 72-67 67%    
  Jan 20, 2022 283   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 69-65 65%    
  Jan 22, 2022 245   @ Arkansas St. W 67-65 57%    
  Jan 27, 2022 263   @ Texas Arlington W 67-64 61%    
  Jan 29, 2022 263   Texas Arlington W 70-61 79%    
  Feb 03, 2022 172   Appalachian St. W 64-60 63%    
  Feb 05, 2022 223   Coastal Carolina W 71-64 72%    
  Feb 10, 2022 183   @ Louisiana L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 12, 2022 272   @ Louisiana Monroe W 70-66 62%    
  Feb 17, 2022 245   Arkansas St. W 70-62 76%    
  Feb 19, 2022 283   Arkansas Little Rock W 72-62 81%    
  Feb 24, 2022 157   @ South Alabama L 63-66 40%    
  Feb 26, 2022 227   @ Troy W 65-64 52%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 3.7 6.2 5.6 3.4 1.6 0.4 22.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 5.1 6.2 3.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 17.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 4.4 5.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.8 5.3 1.5 0.2 11.3 4th
5th 0.2 2.6 4.4 1.9 0.1 9.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.0 1.7 0.2 7.3 6th
7th 0.7 3.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.2 1.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 4.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 1.9 0.6 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.6 0.1 2.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.0 5.2 7.1 9.7 11.5 13.3 13.5 11.9 10.0 6.6 3.5 1.6 0.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 98.8% 1.6    1.6 0.0
16-2 96.9% 3.4    3.1 0.3 0.0
15-3 85.2% 5.6    4.2 1.4 0.0
14-4 61.5% 6.2    3.5 2.1 0.5 0.0
13-5 31.3% 3.7    1.1 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 9.1% 1.2    0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.3% 22.3 14.1 6.0 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 43.2% 40.9% 2.3% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 3.8%
17-1 1.6% 48.8% 48.8% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.8
16-2 3.5% 37.6% 37.6% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 2.2
15-3 6.6% 32.3% 32.3% 13.7 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.0 4.5
14-4 10.0% 25.8% 25.8% 14.1 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.8 0.0 7.4
13-5 11.9% 23.0% 23.0% 14.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.1 9.1
12-6 13.5% 13.8% 13.8% 14.8 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.3 11.6
11-7 13.3% 11.6% 11.6% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.4 11.7
10-8 11.5% 9.0% 9.0% 15.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 10.5
9-9 9.7% 4.7% 4.7% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 9.2
8-10 7.1% 2.5% 2.5% 15.8 0.0 0.2 6.9
7-11 5.2% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.1
6-12 3.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.0
5-13 1.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.7
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.9% 14.9% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 4.6 5.2 1.8 85.1 0.0%