Houston
American Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.3#7
Expected Predictive Rating+14.8#24
Pace61.9#335
Improvement+0.5#127

Offense
Total Offense+8.1#17
First Shot+6.4#24
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#85
Layup/Dunks+1.7#111
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#84
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#94
Freethrows+0.3#161
Improvement+0.0#182

Defense
Total Defense+9.2#4
First Shot+7.5#18
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#80
Layups/Dunks+6.1#22
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#273
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#150
Freethrows+1.9#81
Improvement+0.5#131
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.3% 3.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 15.5% 15.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 31.8% 31.9% 14.3%
Top 4 Seed 56.9% 56.9% 28.6%
Top 6 Seed 73.6% 73.6% 57.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.6% 96.6% 71.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.2% 93.3% 60.0%
Average Seed 4.4 4.4 4.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.7% 100.0%
Conference Champion 66.8% 66.8% 71.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.7% 1.7% 0.0%
First Round96.0% 96.0% 71.4%
Second Round78.6% 78.6% 57.1%
Sweet Sixteen50.9% 50.9% 28.6%
Elite Eight29.8% 29.8% 14.3%
Final Four15.9% 15.9% 0.0%
Championship Game8.4% 8.4% 0.0%
National Champion4.1% 4.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern St. (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 22 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 3
Quad 27 - 111 - 5
Quad 39 - 120 - 5
Quad 48 - 028 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 137   Hofstra W 83-75 OT 94%     1 - 0 +7.3 +5.3 +1.9
  Nov 12, 2021 169   Rice W 79-46 96%     2 - 0 +29.8 +6.2 +26.0
  Nov 16, 2021 39   Virginia W 67-47 82%     3 - 0 +27.7 +14.8 +16.9
  Nov 22, 2021 104   Butler W 70-52 88%     4 - 0 +22.4 +7.6 +16.3
  Nov 23, 2021 31   Wisconsin L 63-65 69%     4 - 1 +10.2 +5.6 +4.4
  Nov 24, 2021 56   Oregon W 78-49 80%     5 - 1 +37.3 +11.9 +26.7
  Nov 30, 2021 347   Northwestern St. W 87-53 99.9%   
  Dec 03, 2021 229   Bryant W 85-61 99%    
  Dec 06, 2021 326   Alcorn St. W 80-50 99.8%   
  Dec 11, 2021 18   @ Alabama L 71-72 49%    
  Dec 14, 2021 183   Louisiana W 80-59 98%    
  Dec 18, 2021 34   Oklahoma St. W 68-62 70%    
  Dec 22, 2021 156   Texas St. W 72-52 97%    
  Dec 28, 2021 57   Cincinnati W 70-58 86%    
  Jan 02, 2022 151   @ Temple W 73-60 88%    
  Jan 05, 2022 207   @ South Florida W 65-49 93%    
  Jan 08, 2022 58   Wichita St. W 69-57 86%    
  Jan 15, 2022 135   @ Tulsa W 70-58 85%    
  Jan 18, 2022 207   South Florida W 68-46 98%    
  Jan 22, 2022 177   East Carolina W 77-56 97%    
  Jan 29, 2022 66   @ Central Florida W 69-62 73%    
  Feb 02, 2022 162   Tulane W 74-54 96%    
  Feb 06, 2022 57   @ Cincinnati W 67-61 71%    
  Feb 09, 2022 94   @ SMU W 73-64 80%    
  Feb 12, 2022 22   Memphis W 72-65 72%    
  Feb 17, 2022 66   Central Florida W 72-59 87%    
  Feb 20, 2022 58   @ Wichita St. W 66-60 71%    
  Feb 23, 2022 162   @ Tulane W 71-57 89%    
  Feb 27, 2022 94   SMU W 76-61 91%    
  Mar 03, 2022 151   Temple W 76-57 95%    
  Mar 06, 2022 22   @ Memphis W 69-68 52%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 15 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 5.5 14.0 20.3 17.4 8.1 66.8 1st
2nd 0.2 1.6 5.5 7.5 5.0 1.5 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.9 2.6 0.9 0.0 7.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.1 2.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.5 5.6 9.6 13.9 19.1 21.8 17.4 8.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 8.1    8.1
17-1 100.0% 17.4    16.9 0.5
16-2 93.2% 20.3    17.2 3.1 0.0
15-3 73.5% 14.0    9.2 4.6 0.3
14-4 39.9% 5.5    2.4 2.6 0.5 0.0
13-5 13.6% 1.3    0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 66.8% 66.8 54.2 11.3 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 8.1% 100.0% 71.4% 28.6% 1.5 5.0 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 17.4% 100.0% 62.3% 37.7% 2.0 6.9 6.3 2.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 100.0%
16-2 21.8% 99.9% 57.6% 42.3% 3.0 3.2 5.7 5.4 4.5 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.8%
15-3 19.1% 99.5% 50.2% 49.3% 4.5 0.5 1.7 3.3 4.9 3.6 2.5 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 98.9%
14-4 13.9% 98.6% 42.1% 56.5% 6.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 2.6 2.7 2.4 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.2 97.6%
13-5 9.6% 94.4% 30.7% 63.6% 7.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.5 91.9%
12-6 5.6% 86.7% 27.8% 58.9% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.8 81.5%
11-7 2.5% 74.9% 23.1% 51.8% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.6 67.4%
10-8 1.2% 53.3% 22.5% 30.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 39.8%
9-9 0.6% 29.3% 17.2% 12.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 14.6%
8-10 0.2% 25.0% 10.0% 15.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 16.7%
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13 0.0% 0.0 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 96.6% 50.1% 46.5% 4.4 15.5 16.3 12.5 12.5 9.2 7.5 6.4 5.3 4.6 3.5 2.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 3.4 93.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.9% 100.0% 1.3 73.0 24.6 2.0 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 100.0% 1.3 66.7 31.8 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.5 61.8 32.4 2.9 2.9