North Texas
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.5#115
Expected Predictive Rating-4.7#241
Pace59.8#350
Improvement-1.3#285

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#182
First Shot+0.9#151
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#252
Layup/Dunks-2.9#280
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#234
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#33
Freethrows-0.8#229
Improvement-0.4#233

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#74
First Shot-0.1#182
After Offensive Rebounds+3.8#15
Layups/Dunks+2.4#102
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#300
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#123
Freethrows-1.9#283
Improvement-0.9#279
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.0% 14.3% 9.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 1.1% 0.3%
Average Seed 13.0 12.5 13.3
.500 or above 64.1% 80.4% 56.7%
.500 or above in Conference 81.2% 87.6% 78.4%
Conference Champion 13.2% 17.5% 11.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.5% 1.2%
First Four0.6% 0.8% 0.5%
First Round10.7% 13.9% 9.3%
Second Round1.9% 2.4% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Neutral) - 31.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 22 - 42 - 7
Quad 36 - 68 - 12
Quad 48 - 216 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2021 71   Buffalo L 66-69 48%     0 - 1 +1.0 -3.1 +3.9
  Nov 18, 2021 263   Texas Arlington W 64-36 87%     1 - 1 +19.4 -3.3 +26.1
  Nov 25, 2021 9   Kansas L 59-71 11%     1 - 2 +4.8 -6.2 +10.9
  Nov 26, 2021 106   Miami (FL) L 63-69 47%     1 - 3 -1.7 -1.6 -0.8
  Nov 28, 2021 54   Drake L 60-65 31%    
  Dec 04, 2021 88   Nevada W 68-67 52%    
  Dec 11, 2021 119   Massachusetts W 72-71 52%    
  Dec 14, 2021 216   Sam Houston St. W 67-58 80%    
  Dec 18, 2021 58   @ Wichita St. L 56-64 24%    
  Dec 21, 2021 135   Tulsa W 62-61 54%    
  Jan 01, 2022 169   Rice W 72-65 73%    
  Jan 06, 2022 52   UAB L 62-64 42%    
  Jan 08, 2022 185   Middle Tennessee W 66-58 76%    
  Jan 13, 2022 116   @ Marshall L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 15, 2022 123   @ Western Kentucky L 63-65 42%    
  Jan 20, 2022 198   Charlotte W 64-56 77%    
  Jan 22, 2022 233   Old Dominion W 64-54 82%    
  Jan 27, 2022 247   @ Southern Miss W 63-58 68%    
  Jan 29, 2022 112   @ Louisiana Tech L 65-68 38%    
  Feb 03, 2022 159   UTEP W 63-57 69%    
  Feb 05, 2022 296   Texas San Antonio W 74-60 89%    
  Feb 12, 2022 169   @ Rice W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 17, 2022 200   @ Florida Atlantic W 66-64 59%    
  Feb 19, 2022 52   @ UAB L 59-67 23%    
  Feb 24, 2022 247   Southern Miss W 66-55 83%    
  Feb 26, 2022 112   Louisiana Tech W 68-65 59%    
  Mar 03, 2022 296   @ Texas San Antonio W 71-63 76%    
  Mar 05, 2022 159   @ UTEP W 61-60 50%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.5 3.5 4.1 2.7 1.1 0.2 13.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.5 4.7 1.6 0.1 14.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.4 4.0 0.9 0.1 13.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.7 5.6 4.4 0.8 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.7 4.1 0.8 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.4 3.2 4.0 1.2 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 4.0 1.8 0.1 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.9 1.9 0.2 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.1 0.5 4.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 1.8 0.6 3.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.7 0.0 2.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.2 5.1 7.6 10.5 12.7 13.6 13.5 11.9 9.1 5.8 2.8 1.1 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.0 0.1
16-2 96.0% 2.7    2.3 0.4
15-3 70.8% 4.1    2.5 1.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 37.9% 3.5    1.3 1.6 0.5 0.1
13-5 12.7% 1.5    0.3 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.2% 13.2 7.6 3.9 1.4 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.1% 51.9% 34.3% 17.6% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 26.8%
16-2 2.8% 32.9% 26.7% 6.1% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.9 8.4%
15-3 5.8% 25.6% 24.6% 1.0% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 4.3 1.4%
14-4 9.1% 23.0% 22.9% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 7.0 0.1%
13-5 11.9% 17.9% 17.9% 13.2 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 9.8
12-6 13.5% 11.5% 11.5% 13.7 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 12.0
11-7 13.6% 7.6% 7.6% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 12.6
10-8 12.7% 4.6% 4.6% 14.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 12.1
9-9 10.5% 2.8% 2.8% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.3
8-10 7.6% 2.1% 2.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 7.5
7-11 5.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.0
6-12 3.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.2
5-13 1.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.7
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.0% 10.5% 0.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.3 3.5 2.3 1.2 0.4 89.0 0.5%