UC Riverside
Big West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#132
Expected Predictive Rating+7.4#82
Pace66.0#264
Improvement+1.0#84

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#259
First Shot+0.4#168
After Offensive Rebound-3.1#332
Layup/Dunks-4.7#325
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#18
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#100
Freethrows-2.0#293
Improvement-1.4#306

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#51
First Shot+5.8#33
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#225
Layups/Dunks+5.3#35
2 Pt Jumpshots-9.2#358
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.4#9
Freethrows+2.3#57
Improvement+2.4#13
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.8% 20.2% 12.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 1.2% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.4 12.5 13.6
.500 or above 85.8% 95.8% 84.0%
.500 or above in Conference 85.8% 92.2% 84.6%
Conference Champion 15.0% 21.8% 13.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
First Round13.6% 19.9% 12.5%
Second Round1.9% 4.0% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 1.2% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Away) - 15.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 3
Quad 22 - 32 - 6
Quad 35 - 47 - 10
Quad 413 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 50   @ San Diego St. L 53-66 18%     0 - 1 -0.9 -8.8 +7.4
  Nov 11, 2021 96   @ Arizona St. W 66-65 28%     1 - 1 +9.3 -0.4 +9.8
  Nov 17, 2021 142   @ San Diego L 62-74 40%     1 - 2 -7.0 -7.9 +1.2
  Nov 22, 2021 159   @ UTEP W 52-40 46%     2 - 2 +15.5 -12.6 +29.0
  Nov 26, 2021 306   Florida A&M W 60-49 89%     3 - 2 +0.0 -12.6 +13.1
  Nov 29, 2021 43   @ St. Mary's L 53-64 16%    
  Dec 01, 2021 56   @ Oregon L 60-69 20%    
  Dec 12, 2021 215   California Baptist W 72-64 76%    
  Dec 19, 2021 284   Sacramento St. W 69-57 87%    
  Dec 22, 2021 350   Idaho W 76-56 97%    
  Dec 28, 2021 214   @ UC Davis W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 02, 2022 186   @ Hawaii W 67-66 53%    
  Jan 06, 2022 187   UC San Diego W 69-62 72%    
  Jan 08, 2022 70   UC Irvine L 60-62 45%    
  Jan 13, 2022 315   @ Cal Poly W 66-58 76%    
  Jan 15, 2022 203   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 61-60 55%    
  Jan 20, 2022 95   @ UC Santa Barbara L 61-67 31%    
  Jan 22, 2022 297   @ Cal St. Northridge W 67-60 74%    
  Jan 27, 2022 288   Long Beach St. W 77-65 86%    
  Jan 29, 2022 192   Cal St. Fullerton W 68-61 73%    
  Feb 01, 2022 214   UC Davis W 71-63 75%    
  Feb 03, 2022 186   Hawaii W 70-63 72%    
  Feb 10, 2022 70   @ UC Irvine L 57-65 25%    
  Feb 12, 2022 187   @ UC San Diego W 66-65 52%    
  Feb 17, 2022 203   Cal St. Bakersfield W 64-57 74%    
  Feb 19, 2022 315   Cal Poly W 69-55 89%    
  Feb 24, 2022 297   Cal St. Northridge W 70-57 87%    
  Feb 26, 2022 95   UC Santa Barbara L 63-64 49%    
  Mar 03, 2022 192   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 65-64 53%    
  Mar 05, 2022 288   @ Long Beach St. W 74-68 72%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 13 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.2 4.2 4.1 2.5 0.9 0.2 15.0 1st
2nd 0.3 2.1 5.5 6.3 3.7 1.3 0.1 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 3.6 6.9 6.0 2.5 0.5 0.0 20.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.8 5.6 3.7 0.8 0.0 15.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.5 2.3 0.3 0.1 11.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.4 3.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.1 1.0 0.1 5.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.1 3.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.1 3.8 5.9 8.5 10.4 12.0 13.3 13.0 11.1 8.4 5.4 2.7 0.9 0.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
18-2 95.1% 2.5    2.1 0.4
17-3 76.1% 4.1    2.9 1.2 0.1
16-4 50.1% 4.2    2.1 1.8 0.3
15-5 20.2% 2.2    0.7 1.0 0.4 0.1
14-6 5.1% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1
13-7 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 15.0% 15.0 9.0 4.7 1.1 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.9% 59.8% 48.9% 10.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 21.3%
18-2 2.7% 39.3% 37.1% 2.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.6 3.6%
17-3 5.4% 29.5% 28.5% 0.9% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.8 1.3%
16-4 8.4% 26.2% 26.1% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.1 6.2 0.2%
15-5 11.1% 22.1% 22.1% 13.4 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.3 8.6
14-6 13.0% 15.7% 15.7% 13.8 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.0 11.0
13-7 13.3% 10.5% 10.5% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 11.9
12-8 12.0% 8.4% 8.4% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 11.0
11-9 10.4% 7.2% 7.2% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 9.7
10-10 8.5% 3.5% 3.5% 15.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 8.2
9-11 5.9% 3.2% 3.2% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.7
8-12 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.1 3.7
7-13 2.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.1
6-14 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.3
5-15 0.7% 0.7
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 13.8% 13.6% 0.3% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 2.4 4.1 3.7 2.3 0.6 86.2 0.3%