UC Irvine
Big West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.1#70
Expected Predictive Rating+11.6#52
Pace66.3#251
Improvement+2.8#25

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#157
First Shot+0.9#150
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#193
Layup/Dunks+1.8#106
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#306
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#129
Freethrows+0.6#142
Improvement+2.8#9

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#33
First Shot+4.0#63
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#46
Layups/Dunks-1.3#238
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#21
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#17
Freethrows-4.2#342
Improvement+0.1#178
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 1.3% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 2.2% 3.5% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.1% 47.8% 37.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.7% 9.7% 3.5%
Average Seed 11.5 11.1 12.2
.500 or above 97.3% 98.9% 95.3%
.500 or above in Conference 98.1% 98.7% 97.4%
Conference Champion 50.8% 56.2% 44.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.2% 2.7% 1.5%
First Round42.1% 46.5% 36.7%
Second Round12.5% 15.3% 9.2%
Sweet Sixteen4.1% 5.0% 3.0%
Elite Eight1.2% 1.4% 0.8%
Final Four0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Away) - 54.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 22 - 23 - 4
Quad 37 - 310 - 7
Quad 412 - 122 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 93   @ New Mexico St. L 51-62 44%     0 - 1 -2.3 -14.8 +11.6
  Nov 13, 2021 67   Boise St. W 58-50 61%     1 - 1 +12.3 -5.9 +18.8
  Nov 20, 2021 235   Pepperdine W 82-48 90%     2 - 1 +27.3 +11.2 +18.0
  Nov 27, 2021 77   @ Santa Clara W 69-64 40%     3 - 1 +14.7 +2.2 +12.8
  Dec 11, 2021 121   @ Fresno St. W 63-62 55%    
  Dec 15, 2021 14   @ USC L 58-69 16%    
  Dec 19, 2021 193   Duquesne W 70-61 78%    
  Dec 21, 2021 71   @ Buffalo L 72-75 40%    
  Dec 30, 2021 297   Cal St. Northridge W 74-56 94%    
  Jan 01, 2022 95   UC Santa Barbara W 67-62 66%    
  Jan 06, 2022 214   @ UC Davis W 72-66 72%    
  Jan 08, 2022 132   @ UC Riverside W 62-60 55%    
  Jan 11, 2022 187   UC San Diego W 72-61 84%    
  Jan 14, 2022 186   @ Hawaii W 70-65 69%    
  Jan 20, 2022 192   Cal St. Fullerton W 71-59 85%    
  Jan 22, 2022 288   @ Long Beach St. W 78-67 85%    
  Jan 27, 2022 203   Cal St. Bakersfield W 68-56 86%    
  Jan 29, 2022 315   Cal Poly W 72-53 95%    
  Feb 03, 2022 95   @ UC Santa Barbara L 64-65 46%    
  Feb 05, 2022 297   @ Cal St. Northridge W 71-59 85%    
  Feb 10, 2022 132   UC Riverside W 65-57 75%    
  Feb 12, 2022 214   UC Davis W 75-63 86%    
  Feb 15, 2022 187   @ UC San Diego W 69-64 67%    
  Feb 19, 2022 186   Hawaii W 73-62 84%    
  Feb 24, 2022 192   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 68-62 69%    
  Feb 26, 2022 288   Long Beach St. W 81-64 94%    
  Mar 03, 2022 315   @ Cal Poly W 69-56 86%    
  Mar 05, 2022 203   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 65-59 70%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 16 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.1 9.3 12.5 12.4 8.1 3.1 50.8 1st
2nd 0.3 1.7 5.2 7.7 6.0 2.7 0.5 24.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.0 3.7 2.1 0.3 0.0 12.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.4 1.9 0.5 0.1 6.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.1 2.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 2.0 3.3 5.3 8.1 10.5 14.0 15.6 15.2 12.9 8.1 3.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 3.1    3.1
19-1 100.0% 8.1    8.0 0.1
18-2 96.5% 12.4    11.2 1.3
17-3 82.3% 12.5    9.6 2.8 0.1
16-4 59.4% 9.3    5.5 3.4 0.4
15-5 29.3% 4.1    1.6 1.9 0.5 0.1
14-6 10.3% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 50.8% 50.8 39.2 9.9 1.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 3.1% 87.0% 68.7% 18.2% 7.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 58.3%
19-1 8.1% 77.9% 62.9% 15.0% 9.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.6 0.9 0.2 1.8 40.3%
18-2 12.9% 65.0% 54.5% 10.5% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.5 2.9 0.7 0.1 4.5 23.0%
17-3 15.2% 53.3% 48.8% 4.5% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 4.0 1.6 0.2 7.1 8.8%
16-4 15.6% 41.5% 40.4% 1.2% 12.4 0.1 0.4 3.1 2.3 0.6 0.0 9.1 1.9%
15-5 14.0% 34.3% 33.6% 0.7% 12.8 0.1 1.8 2.0 0.9 0.0 9.2 1.1%
14-6 10.5% 26.9% 26.9% 13.2 0.1 0.4 1.3 0.9 0.2 7.7
13-7 8.1% 23.6% 23.6% 13.5 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.2
12-8 5.3% 17.2% 17.2% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 4.4
11-9 3.3% 12.1% 12.1% 14.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.9
10-10 2.0% 8.4% 8.4% 14.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.9
9-11 0.9% 8.6% 8.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9
8-12 0.6% 8.3% 8.3% 16.0 0.1 0.6
7-13 0.2% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
6-14 0.1% 0.0 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 43.1% 39.0% 4.1% 11.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 2.1 2.7 6.8 13.6 9.0 4.1 0.8 0.2 56.9 6.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 3.3 9.7 19.4 25.8 22.6 19.4 3.2