Oregon
Pac-12
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.3#56
Expected Predictive Rating+4.9#111
Pace67.4#232
Improvement-3.4#348

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#55
First Shot+2.4#108
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#48
Layup/Dunks+3.1#73
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#322
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#128
Freethrows+1.2#98
Improvement-3.9#355

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#79
First Shot-1.2#219
After Offensive Rebounds+4.6#4
Layups/Dunks-0.9#225
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#258
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#255
Freethrows+2.7#36
Improvement+0.5#129
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.4% 1.6% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 4.0% 4.4% 1.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.0% 26.0% 11.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 21.8% 23.6% 10.9%
Average Seed 8.8 8.8 9.4
.500 or above 62.2% 65.8% 39.5%
.500 or above in Conference 57.5% 59.7% 43.8%
Conference Champion 2.0% 2.2% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 3.1% 5.3%
First Four4.6% 4.9% 2.5%
First Round21.7% 23.5% 10.7%
Second Round10.6% 11.6% 4.5%
Sweet Sixteen3.5% 3.8% 1.5%
Elite Eight1.4% 1.5% 0.6%
Final Four0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.0% 0.1%

Next Game: Montana (Home) - 86.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 10
Quad 23 - 36 - 13
Quad 36 - 212 - 15
Quad 45 - 017 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 201   Texas Southern W 83-66 89%     1 - 0 +12.2 +15.7 -2.1
  Nov 12, 2021 94   SMU W 86-63 71%     2 - 0 +25.5 +12.2 +13.1
  Nov 16, 2021 26   BYU L 49-81 32%     2 - 1 -18.7 -14.6 -6.2
  Nov 23, 2021 43   St. Mary's L 50-62 43%     2 - 2 -1.9 -10.1 +7.1
  Nov 24, 2021 7   Houston L 49-78 20%     2 - 3 -11.7 -12.5 -0.4
  Nov 29, 2021 170   Montana W 75-63 86%    
  Dec 01, 2021 132   UC Riverside W 69-60 80%    
  Dec 05, 2021 96   Arizona St. W 76-70 71%    
  Dec 12, 2021 97   @ Stanford W 70-69 51%    
  Dec 15, 2021 254   Portland W 80-63 94%    
  Dec 18, 2021 3   Baylor L 68-75 24%    
  Dec 21, 2021 235   Pepperdine W 78-63 92%    
  Dec 30, 2021 75   Colorado W 72-67 66%    
  Jan 01, 2022 51   Utah W 71-69 58%    
  Jan 08, 2022 128   @ Oregon St. W 69-66 60%    
  Jan 13, 2022 5   @ UCLA L 66-78 13%    
  Jan 15, 2022 14   @ USC L 63-73 20%    
  Jan 20, 2022 48   Washington St. W 72-70 56%    
  Jan 23, 2022 131   Washington W 76-67 78%    
  Jan 29, 2022 128   Oregon St. W 72-63 78%    
  Feb 03, 2022 75   @ Colorado L 69-70 45%    
  Feb 05, 2022 51   @ Utah L 68-72 38%    
  Feb 10, 2022 97   Stanford W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 12, 2022 129   California W 70-61 78%    
  Feb 17, 2022 96   @ Arizona St. L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 19, 2022 6   @ Arizona L 67-79 15%    
  Feb 24, 2022 5   UCLA L 69-75 29%    
  Feb 26, 2022 14   USC L 66-70 38%    
  Mar 03, 2022 131   @ Washington W 73-70 60%    
  Mar 05, 2022 48   @ Washington St. L 69-73 36%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.4 1.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 5.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.9 2.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 9.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.9 3.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 14.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.1 6.1 4.0 1.0 0.1 16.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.5 5.8 2.9 0.5 14.6 6th
7th 0.7 3.9 5.1 2.1 0.4 0.0 12.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.2 1.8 0.2 9.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.1 1.3 0.2 6.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.2 1.0 0.1 5.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.1 3.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.0 3.3 5.2 8.0 10.4 12.5 12.8 12.7 10.8 8.3 5.9 3.6 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 93.3% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 60.8% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.0
16-4 29.3% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1
15-5 10.7% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.3% 100.0% 26.7% 73.3% 3.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.0% 100.0% 25.8% 74.2% 4.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.2% 98.1% 12.6% 85.6% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.9%
15-5 3.6% 97.0% 8.8% 88.2% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 96.7%
14-6 5.9% 80.5% 8.2% 72.2% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.2 78.7%
13-7 8.3% 63.7% 5.8% 57.9% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.0 61.4%
12-8 10.8% 36.7% 2.6% 34.1% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 6.8 35.0%
11-9 12.7% 16.1% 2.1% 14.1% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1 10.6 14.4%
10-10 12.8% 5.3% 1.3% 4.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 12.1 4.1%
9-11 12.5% 1.3% 0.8% 0.5% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.3 0.5%
8-12 10.4% 0.7% 0.7% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.4
7-13 8.0% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0
6-14 5.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.2
5-15 3.3% 0.6% 0.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 3.3
4-16 2.0% 2.0
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 24.0% 2.9% 21.2% 8.8 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.5 2.3 3.2 3.6 3.9 4.5 2.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 76.0 21.8%