UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.5#95
Expected Predictive Rating-2.9#218
Pace64.2#300
Improvement+0.3#150

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#75
First Shot+4.1#61
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#187
Layup/Dunks+10.3#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#351
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#276
Freethrows+1.9#70
Improvement+0.3#144

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#117
First Shot+1.9#110
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#208
Layups/Dunks-11.9#358
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#20
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.1#3
Freethrows+1.5#99
Improvement+0.0#186
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.3% 28.1% 18.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 14.0
.500 or above 96.9% 97.6% 90.1%
.500 or above in Conference 94.9% 95.5% 89.7%
Conference Champion 34.8% 36.0% 23.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.5%
First Round27.1% 28.0% 18.4%
Second Round6.2% 6.5% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen2.0% 2.1% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Home) - 90.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 37 - 7
Quad 416 - 223 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2021 48   @ Washington St. L 65-73 25%     0 - 1 +4.4 -0.1 +4.1
  Nov 20, 2021 355   Chicago St. W 81-50 98%     1 - 1 +9.8 -0.2 +10.7
  Nov 24, 2021 357   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 86-58 99%     2 - 1 +5.4 +4.0 +1.6
  Nov 29, 2021 263   Texas Arlington W 75-61 90%    
  Dec 03, 2021 235   Pepperdine W 76-64 87%    
  Dec 11, 2021 43   @ St. Mary's L 59-67 24%    
  Dec 14, 2021 188   @ Pacific W 68-64 63%    
  Dec 19, 2021 306   Florida A&M W 74-58 93%    
  Dec 22, 2021 308   Idaho St. W 73-56 93%    
  Dec 30, 2021 187   @ UC San Diego W 71-67 62%    
  Jan 01, 2022 70   @ UC Irvine L 62-67 34%    
  Jan 06, 2022 315   Cal Poly W 74-57 94%    
  Jan 08, 2022 203   Cal St. Bakersfield W 70-60 82%    
  Jan 13, 2022 288   @ Long Beach St. W 80-70 80%    
  Jan 15, 2022 192   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 70-66 63%    
  Jan 20, 2022 132   UC Riverside W 67-61 69%    
  Jan 22, 2022 214   UC Davis W 77-66 82%    
  Jan 25, 2022 297   @ Cal St. Northridge W 72-62 81%    
  Jan 30, 2022 186   @ Hawaii W 72-68 62%    
  Feb 03, 2022 70   UC Irvine W 65-64 54%    
  Feb 05, 2022 187   UC San Diego W 74-64 79%    
  Feb 10, 2022 203   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 67-63 65%    
  Feb 12, 2022 315   @ Cal Poly W 71-60 83%    
  Feb 17, 2022 192   Cal St. Fullerton W 73-63 81%    
  Feb 19, 2022 288   Long Beach St. W 83-67 91%    
  Feb 24, 2022 214   @ UC Davis W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 26, 2022 132   @ UC Riverside W 64-63 51%    
  Mar 01, 2022 297   Cal St. Northridge W 75-59 91%    
  Mar 04, 2022 186   Hawaii W 75-65 80%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 15 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.6 7.4 8.8 7.9 4.7 1.4 34.8 1st
2nd 0.4 2.1 5.8 8.2 6.4 2.6 0.5 25.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.5 5.3 2.2 0.4 0.0 16.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.5 2.4 0.7 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.3 1.4 2.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.9 6th
7th 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.5 3.9 5.8 7.9 10.5 12.8 14.0 14.1 11.4 8.3 4.7 1.4 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.4    1.4
19-1 100.0% 4.7    4.6 0.2
18-2 94.2% 7.9    6.9 1.0
17-3 76.8% 8.8    6.5 2.1 0.1
16-4 52.4% 7.4    4.0 2.9 0.4
15-5 25.7% 3.6    1.5 1.6 0.5 0.1
14-6 7.3% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1
13-7 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 34.8% 34.8 25.1 8.2 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.4% 81.0% 67.2% 13.9% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 42.2%
19-1 4.7% 56.1% 51.8% 4.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.1 2.1 8.8%
18-2 8.3% 51.3% 50.8% 0.5% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 4.1 1.0%
17-3 11.4% 40.5% 40.5% 12.9 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.0 1.1 0.1 6.8
16-4 14.1% 32.9% 32.9% 13.4 0.6 1.8 1.8 0.4 9.5
15-5 14.0% 27.9% 27.9% 13.8 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.6 0.9 0.1 10.1
14-6 12.8% 18.2% 18.2% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.1 10.5
13-7 10.5% 16.7% 16.7% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.2 8.8
12-8 7.9% 13.0% 13.0% 14.9 0.3 0.5 0.2 6.8
11-9 5.8% 9.2% 9.2% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 5.3
10-10 3.9% 5.8% 5.8% 15.7 0.1 0.2 3.7
9-11 2.5% 5.3% 5.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 2.3
8-12 1.2% 3.3% 3.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.2
7-13 0.7% 0.7
6-14 0.4% 0.4
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 27.3% 26.8% 0.4% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.4 5.0 7.5 6.8 4.1 1.0 72.8 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 5.0 3.6 10.7 32.1 21.4 14.3 10.7 7.1