Tennessee
Southeastern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.7#23
Expected Predictive Rating+14.3#26
Pace71.0#132
Improvement-1.4#288

Offense
Total Offense+6.1#33
First Shot-0.7#196
After Offensive Rebound+6.9#1
Layup/Dunks+3.8#62
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#266
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#222
Freethrows-1.2#256
Improvement-1.5#314

Defense
Total Defense+7.6#20
First Shot+5.9#31
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#87
Layups/Dunks+3.6#62
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#140
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#79
Freethrows-1.0#238
Improvement+0.1#173
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.6% 1.6% 0.8%
#1 Seed 6.4% 6.4% 1.6%
Top 2 Seed 15.3% 15.4% 6.5%
Top 4 Seed 35.7% 35.9% 17.9%
Top 6 Seed 55.1% 55.4% 31.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.2% 81.5% 63.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 79.0% 79.2% 60.2%
Average Seed 5.3 5.3 6.4
.500 or above 91.7% 91.9% 76.4%
.500 or above in Conference 80.2% 80.4% 63.4%
Conference Champion 13.8% 13.9% 8.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.6% 0.8%
First Four3.7% 3.7% 3.3%
First Round79.7% 79.9% 63.4%
Second Round57.7% 58.0% 39.0%
Sweet Sixteen30.6% 30.8% 17.9%
Elite Eight14.1% 14.3% 2.4%
Final Four6.5% 6.6% 0.0%
Championship Game2.7% 2.7% 0.0%
National Champion1.2% 1.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Presbyterian (Home) - 98.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 10
Quad 25 - 212 - 11
Quad 34 - 017 - 12
Quad 45 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 345   Tennessee Martin W 90-62 99%     1 - 0 +11.7 +7.0 +4.4
  Nov 14, 2021 124   East Tennessee St. W 94-62 90%     2 - 0 +31.8 +14.4 +15.0
  Nov 20, 2021 8   Villanova L 53-71 38%     2 - 1 -1.0 -13.6 +12.1
  Nov 21, 2021 44   North Carolina W 89-72 64%     3 - 1 +27.1 +12.8 +13.4
  Nov 26, 2021 262   Tennessee Tech W 80-69 97%     4 - 1 +2.6 +2.4 +0.2
  Nov 30, 2021 281   Presbyterian W 77-54 99%    
  Dec 04, 2021 75   @ Colorado W 71-67 64%    
  Dec 07, 2021 17   Texas Tech L 68-69 47%    
  Dec 11, 2021 171   UNC Greensboro W 72-55 95%    
  Dec 14, 2021 337   South Carolina Upstate W 86-58 99.6%   
  Dec 18, 2021 22   Memphis L 73-74 50%    
  Dec 22, 2021 6   Arizona L 73-74 48%    
  Dec 29, 2021 18   @ Alabama L 75-79 37%    
  Jan 05, 2022 74   Mississippi W 71-61 82%    
  Jan 08, 2022 10   @ LSU L 71-76 31%    
  Jan 11, 2022 92   South Carolina W 80-69 84%    
  Jan 15, 2022 12   @ Kentucky L 70-75 33%    
  Jan 18, 2022 80   @ Vanderbilt W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 22, 2022 10   LSU W 74-73 52%    
  Jan 26, 2022 15   Florida W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 29, 2022 11   @ Texas L 63-68 32%    
  Feb 01, 2022 81   Texas A&M W 71-61 82%    
  Feb 05, 2022 92   @ South Carolina W 77-72 68%    
  Feb 09, 2022 37   @ Mississippi St. L 67-68 51%    
  Feb 12, 2022 80   Vanderbilt W 75-65 81%    
  Feb 15, 2022 12   Kentucky W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 19, 2022 25   @ Arkansas L 74-77 41%    
  Feb 22, 2022 127   @ Missouri W 73-65 77%    
  Feb 26, 2022 20   Auburn W 76-73 59%    
  Mar 01, 2022 154   @ Georgia W 78-68 80%    
  Mar 05, 2022 25   Arkansas W 77-74 61%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.3 3.9 4.2 3.0 1.0 0.2 13.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 5.0 4.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 12.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 5.0 4.1 0.9 0.1 11.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.7 4.8 0.9 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.7 5.0 1.5 0.1 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.0 2.1 0.1 9.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 4.4 2.4 0.2 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.3 2.9 0.5 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.5 0.6 5.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 2.1 0.7 0.1 4.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.7 3.0 5.5 8.2 10.6 12.4 13.4 13.4 11.3 9.1 5.6 3.2 1.0 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
16-2 94.4% 3.0    2.6 0.4
15-3 75.0% 4.2    2.7 1.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 43.0% 3.9    1.3 1.7 0.8 0.1
13-5 11.2% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.8% 13.8 8.0 4.0 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 45.5% 54.5% 1.3 0.2 0.1 100.0%
17-1 1.0% 100.0% 38.6% 61.4% 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 100.0%
16-2 3.2% 100.0% 32.7% 67.3% 1.6 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.1 100.0%
15-3 5.6% 100.0% 25.4% 74.6% 2.0 1.8 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 9.1% 100.0% 22.4% 77.6% 2.8 1.4 2.7 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 11.3% 99.9% 19.5% 80.4% 3.8 0.5 1.8 3.0 2.8 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 13.4% 99.7% 10.6% 89.1% 4.9 0.1 0.6 2.2 3.1 3.1 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
11-7 13.4% 97.6% 7.8% 89.8% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.6 2.8 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 97.4%
10-8 12.4% 91.3% 4.5% 86.7% 7.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.5 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.1 90.9%
9-9 10.6% 75.8% 3.0% 72.8% 8.5 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.6 75.1%
8-10 8.2% 46.8% 2.1% 44.7% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.4 45.6%
7-11 5.5% 19.7% 1.3% 18.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 4.4 18.7%
6-12 3.0% 4.3% 0.3% 4.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.9 4.0%
5-13 1.7% 0.6% 0.6% 12.0 0.0 1.7
4-14 1.0% 1.0
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 81.2% 10.8% 70.4% 5.3 6.4 8.9 10.2 10.2 10.1 9.3 7.5 5.9 4.4 3.3 3.2 1.7 0.2 0.0 18.8 79.0%