BYU
West Coast
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.3#26
Expected Predictive Rating+17.6#10
Pace68.8#194
Improvement+0.6#118

Offense
Total Offense+7.3#23
First Shot+3.9#66
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#22
Layup/Dunks+0.6#148
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#42
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#279
Freethrows+3.9#12
Improvement+0.1#163

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#41
First Shot+4.1#62
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#72
Layups/Dunks+3.7#59
2 Pt Jumpshots-6.4#356
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#15
Freethrows+0.0#188
Improvement+0.5#135
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 1.0% 0.2%
#1 Seed 3.9% 5.6% 1.9%
Top 2 Seed 9.0% 12.2% 5.1%
Top 4 Seed 24.0% 31.1% 15.1%
Top 6 Seed 40.8% 50.4% 29.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 84.5% 91.2% 76.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 82.2% 89.7% 73.4%
Average Seed 6.6 6.1 7.4
.500 or above 98.8% 99.7% 97.7%
.500 or above in Conference 95.8% 97.2% 94.1%
Conference Champion 12.5% 14.4% 10.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four6.6% 4.8% 8.7%
First Round81.4% 88.9% 72.3%
Second Round53.4% 60.6% 44.5%
Sweet Sixteen25.2% 29.7% 19.8%
Elite Eight11.4% 13.7% 8.5%
Final Four4.9% 6.0% 3.4%
Championship Game2.0% 2.5% 1.4%
National Champion0.8% 1.0% 0.4%

Next Game: Utah (Away) - 55.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 4
Quad 26 - 29 - 6
Quad 37 - 116 - 7
Quad 46 - 022 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 163   Cleveland St. W 69-59 93%     1 - 0 +7.0 +1.9 +6.1
  Nov 12, 2021 50   San Diego St. W 66-60 75%     2 - 0 +12.1 +2.2 +10.1
  Nov 16, 2021 56   Oregon W 81-49 68%     3 - 0 +40.3 +16.9 +25.5
  Nov 24, 2021 201   Texas Southern W 81-64 94%     4 - 0 +12.2 +4.3 +7.4
  Nov 27, 2021 51   @ Utah W 71-70 55%    
  Dec 01, 2021 153   @ Utah Valley W 74-65 81%    
  Dec 04, 2021 90   @ Missouri St. W 76-72 66%    
  Dec 08, 2021 47   Utah St. W 75-68 72%    
  Dec 11, 2021 87   Creighton W 75-68 75%    
  Dec 18, 2021 102   @ Weber St. W 76-70 70%    
  Dec 22, 2021 207   South Florida W 68-53 92%    
  Jan 01, 2022 254   @ Portland W 80-64 92%    
  Jan 06, 2022 188   Pacific W 77-59 94%    
  Jan 08, 2022 43   St. Mary's W 67-61 71%    
  Jan 13, 2022 1   @ Gonzaga L 73-86 13%    
  Jan 15, 2022 49   @ San Francisco W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 20, 2022 142   @ San Diego W 75-67 77%    
  Jan 22, 2022 254   Portland W 83-61 97%    
  Jan 27, 2022 77   @ Santa Clara W 77-73 62%    
  Jan 29, 2022 188   @ Pacific W 74-62 84%    
  Feb 03, 2022 49   San Francisco W 74-67 74%    
  Feb 05, 2022 1   Gonzaga L 76-83 27%    
  Feb 10, 2022 108   @ Loyola Marymount W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 12, 2022 235   @ Pepperdine W 79-65 88%    
  Feb 19, 2022 43   @ St. Mary's W 65-64 51%    
  Feb 24, 2022 108   Loyola Marymount W 76-64 85%    
  Feb 26, 2022 235   Pepperdine W 82-62 96%    
Projected Record 20 - 7 11 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.2 5.0 3.8 0.8 12.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 8.0 15.7 13.8 5.1 44.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 7.2 8.5 3.4 0.3 21.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 4.5 4.1 1.0 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 2.7 2.1 0.5 0.0 6.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.2 2.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.3 5.1 8.9 13.6 17.5 19.7 16.3 10.2 3.8 0.8 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
15-1 100.0% 3.8    2.7 1.1
14-2 49.5% 5.0    2.1 2.9 0.1
13-3 13.7% 2.2    0.5 1.4 0.3 0.0
12-4 2.9% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1
11-5 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 12.5% 12.5 6.1 5.7 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.8% 100.0% 39.0% 61.0% 1.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 100.0%
15-1 3.8% 100.0% 36.8% 63.2% 2.1 1.5 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-2 10.2% 99.9% 26.7% 73.2% 3.1 1.5 2.2 2.6 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-3 16.3% 99.8% 18.1% 81.7% 4.8 0.4 1.2 2.5 3.7 3.1 2.3 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-4 19.7% 97.7% 12.2% 85.4% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 3.2 3.7 3.2 2.8 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 97.3%
11-5 17.5% 91.7% 9.4% 82.3% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 2.4 2.8 3.2 2.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 1.5 90.8%
10-6 13.6% 78.9% 6.8% 72.2% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.4 2.9 2.2 0.7 0.0 2.9 77.4%
9-7 8.9% 58.9% 4.4% 54.5% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.7 0.9 0.1 3.7 57.0%
8-8 5.1% 38.2% 2.2% 36.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1 3.1 36.8%
7-9 2.3% 14.2% 2.6% 11.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.0 11.9%
6-10 1.2% 2.5% 2.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 1.2 2.5%
5-11 0.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-12 0.2% 0.2
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 84.5% 12.9% 71.6% 6.6 3.9 5.1 6.4 8.6 8.2 8.6 8.4 8.0 9.0 8.7 7.0 2.6 0.2 0.0 15.5 82.2%