Preseason Rankings
Horizon
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
171 Wright St. 17.5%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 13 - 7 -0.1      +1.4 146 -1.5 222 71.8 80 0.0 1 0.0 1
195 Northern Kentucky 15.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 12 - 8 -1.0      -1.0 214 0.0 172 62.2 335 0.0 1 0.0 1
197 Purdue Fort Wayne 14.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 12 - 8 -1.1      +0.2 176 -1.3 217 70.2 112 0.0 1 0.0 1
214 Oakland 12.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 12 - 8 -1.9      +0.7 167 -2.6 256 69.1 143 0.0 1 0.0 1
215 Cleveland St. 12.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 12 - 8 -1.9      -0.7 201 -1.2 212 69.2 136 0.0 1 0.0 1
223 Youngstown St. 10.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 9 -2.5      +1.7 134 -4.2 301 67.0 214 0.0 1 0.0 1
229 Detroit Mercy 9.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 11 - 9 -2.9      +1.0 157 -4.0 292 63.9 301 0.0 1 0.0 1
277 Robert Morris 4.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 9 - 11 -6.2      -1.3 226 -5.0 313 67.5 201 0.0 1 0.0 1
306 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 2.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 8 - 12 -8.5      -4.8 303 -3.7 290 67.6 199 0.0 1 0.0 1
333 IUPUI 1.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 20 6 - 14 -11.3      -5.0 311 -6.3 338 59.3 350 0.0 1 0.0 1
347 Green Bay 0.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 23 5 - 15 -13.3      -7.4 343 -5.9 332 63.0 320 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Wright St. 3.8 23.1 16.8 13.9 11.7 10.1 7.9 6.3 4.7 3.1 1.7 0.7
Northern Kentucky 4.2 18.6 15.5 13.4 11.9 10.6 9.0 7.4 6.1 4.1 2.4 1.0
Purdue Fort Wayne 4.2 18.3 15.3 13.7 11.9 10.5 9.2 7.6 6.0 4.2 2.4 1.0
Oakland 4.6 15.0 13.5 12.9 11.7 11.0 10.4 8.6 7.3 5.0 3.2 1.4
Cleveland St. 4.6 14.5 13.4 12.9 12.4 10.9 10.1 8.6 7.2 5.2 3.2 1.6
Youngstown St. 4.8 12.8 12.5 12.3 11.5 11.2 10.4 9.9 7.9 6.2 3.7 1.7
Detroit Mercy 5.0 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.6 11.4 10.8 10.2 8.6 6.7 4.3 2.1
Robert Morris 6.5 4.3 5.7 7.0 8.4 9.8 11.3 12.2 12.8 12.8 9.8 5.8
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 7.5 2.1 3.2 4.5 5.8 7.4 9.5 11.5 13.7 16.1 14.9 11.5
IUPUI 8.6 0.7 1.3 2.0 3.0 4.5 6.0 8.6 11.8 17.0 22.3 22.8
Green Bay 9.3 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.7 4.1 6.2 9.3 15.1 23.6 35.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Wright St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.2 4.3 5.7 7.2 8.7 9.7 10.5 10.4 10.1 8.8 7.5 5.1 3.0 1.0
Northern Kentucky 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.8 4.1 5.6 6.7 8.0 9.3 9.8 10.2 9.6 9.2 7.8 6.1 4.0 2.2 0.7
Purdue Fort Wayne 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.9 2.9 4.0 5.9 6.8 7.8 9.1 9.9 10.4 10.2 8.9 7.7 5.8 4.0 2.1 0.7
Oakland 12 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.3 3.7 5.0 6.3 7.8 8.8 9.6 10.1 9.9 8.9 8.3 6.5 4.9 2.9 1.6 0.5
Cleveland St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.5 3.6 5.0 6.4 7.7 8.6 9.9 10.3 9.8 9.1 7.7 6.4 4.9 2.9 1.6 0.5
Youngstown St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.9 2.9 4.3 5.7 7.3 8.2 9.1 9.6 9.8 9.4 8.7 7.3 6.0 3.9 2.6 1.2 0.3
Detroit Mercy 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.2 3.4 4.9 6.0 7.3 8.8 9.6 9.8 9.7 9.1 8.1 6.7 5.1 3.6 2.3 1.0 0.3
Robert Morris 9 - 11 0.3 1.0 2.0 3.8 5.5 7.1 8.4 9.3 9.7 9.9 9.4 8.5 7.3 5.9 4.4 3.3 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 8 - 12 0.8 2.3 4.3 6.5 8.4 9.4 10.2 10.4 9.7 9.1 7.8 6.3 5.0 3.6 2.6 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
IUPUI 6 - 14 2.3 5.7 8.8 10.8 11.5 11.8 11.0 9.5 7.8 6.2 4.7 3.5 2.7 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 5 - 15 5.0 9.6 12.1 13.3 13.1 11.3 9.6 7.6 5.9 4.3 3.1 2.0 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Wright St. 23.1% 16.5 5.2 1.2 0.2 0.0
Northern Kentucky 18.6% 12.9 4.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Purdue Fort Wayne 18.3% 12.7 4.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oakland 15.0% 10.2 3.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Cleveland St. 14.5% 9.8 3.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
Youngstown St. 12.8% 8.4 3.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Detroit Mercy 11.4% 7.4 3.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Robert Morris 4.3% 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 2.1% 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
IUPUI 0.7% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 0.3% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Wright St. 17.5% 17.3% 0.3% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.6 3.9 4.0 3.1 2.7 82.5 0.3%
Northern Kentucky 15.2% 15.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 2.0 3.3 3.6 3.0 2.3 84.8 0.2%
Purdue Fort Wayne 14.7% 14.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.1 3.6 3.3 2.6 85.3 0.1%
Oakland 12.7% 12.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.4 2.9 2.7 2.6 87.3 0.1%
Cleveland St. 12.1% 12.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.2 2.7 2.8 2.9 87.9 0.1%
Youngstown St. 10.6% 10.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 2.6 2.4 2.4 89.4 0.1%
Detroit Mercy 9.8% 9.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.6 90.2 0.1%
Robert Morris 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.6 95.7 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.2 97.6 0.0%
IUPUI 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 99.0 0.0%
Green Bay 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.4 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Wright St. 17.5% 1.7% 16.7% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 15.2% 1.5% 14.5% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 14.7% 1.4% 14.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland 12.7% 1.8% 11.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 12.1% 1.7% 11.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Youngstown St. 10.6% 1.4% 9.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 9.8% 1.9% 8.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Morris 4.3% 1.1% 3.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 2.4% 0.8% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
IUPUI 1.0% 0.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Green Bay 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.1 0.9 0.0
1st Round 93.2% 0.9 6.8 92.6 0.6 0.0
2nd Round 8.9% 0.1 91.1 8.8 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.9% 0.0 98.1 1.9
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0