Preseason Rankings
Purdue Fort Wayne
Horizon
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.1#197
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.2#112
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#176
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#217
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 1.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.7% 31.0% 14.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 1.7% 0.1%
Average Seed 14.0 12.4 14.1
.500 or above 74.5% 95.8% 73.6%
.500 or above in Conference 76.5% 93.9% 75.8%
Conference Champion 18.3% 42.0% 17.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.1% 1.8%
First Four1.4% 1.3% 1.4%
First Round14.0% 30.6% 13.4%
Second Round1.3% 6.5% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 1.9% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Michigan (Away) - 3.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 43 - 7
Quad 414 - 417 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 15   @ Michigan L 64-83 4%    
  Nov 12, 2022 326   SIU Edwardsville W 79-67 87%    
  Nov 22, 2022 226   Eastern Michigan W 77-75 56%    
  Nov 25, 2022 85   @ Northwestern L 67-78 18%    
  Dec 01, 2022 229   Detroit Mercy W 75-70 66%    
  Dec 03, 2022 214   Oakland W 77-73 62%    
  Dec 07, 2022 281   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 81-78 59%    
  Dec 10, 2022 131   @ Missouri St. L 70-77 29%    
  Dec 19, 2022 343   Texas A&M - Commerce W 79-64 89%    
  Dec 20, 2022 339   Southern Indiana W 79-65 88%    
  Dec 29, 2022 277   @ Robert Morris W 75-73 57%    
  Dec 31, 2022 223   @ Youngstown St. L 74-76 45%    
  Jan 05, 2023 347   Green Bay W 77-62 89%    
  Jan 07, 2023 306   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 77-67 80%    
  Jan 12, 2023 333   @ IUPUI W 72-65 72%    
  Jan 16, 2023 215   Cleveland St. W 75-71 62%    
  Jan 19, 2023 171   @ Wright St. L 74-78 37%    
  Jan 21, 2023 195   @ Northern Kentucky L 67-70 40%    
  Jan 25, 2023 333   IUPUI W 75-62 85%    
  Jan 27, 2023 215   @ Cleveland St. L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 02, 2023 214   @ Oakland L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 04, 2023 229   @ Detroit Mercy L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 10, 2023 223   Youngstown St. W 77-73 64%    
  Feb 12, 2023 277   Robert Morris W 78-70 74%    
  Feb 17, 2023 195   Northern Kentucky W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 19, 2023 171   Wright St. W 77-75 56%    
  Feb 23, 2023 306   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 25, 2023 347   @ Green Bay W 74-65 77%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.2 4.1 4.6 3.8 2.1 0.7 18.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.0 4.7 3.3 1.2 0.2 15.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.6 4.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.4 3.4 1.1 0.1 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.4 4.1 2.7 0.6 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 3.5 2.0 0.4 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 2.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.9 2.9 4.0 5.9 6.8 7.8 9.1 9.9 10.4 10.2 8.9 7.7 5.8 4.0 2.1 0.7 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
19-1 100.0% 2.1    2.1 0.1
18-2 95.6% 3.8    3.4 0.4 0.0
17-3 79.7% 4.6    3.4 1.2 0.1 0.0
16-4 52.9% 4.1    2.3 1.5 0.3 0.0
15-5 25.1% 2.2    0.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.6% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.3% 18.3 12.7 4.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.7% 69.7% 63.5% 6.2% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 17.0%
19-1 2.1% 60.0% 58.1% 1.9% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 4.6%
18-2 4.0% 45.5% 44.8% 0.8% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.2 1.4%
17-3 5.8% 37.3% 37.2% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.7 0.1%
16-4 7.7% 28.2% 28.2% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 5.5
15-5 8.9% 20.7% 20.7% 14.4 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.2 7.1
14-6 10.2% 15.6% 15.6% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 8.6
13-7 10.4% 11.8% 11.8% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 9.1
12-8 9.9% 8.0% 8.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 9.1
11-9 9.1% 6.0% 6.0% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 8.5
10-10 7.8% 4.3% 4.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 7.4
9-11 6.8% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 6.6
8-12 5.9% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 5.8
7-13 4.0% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 3.9
6-14 2.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.8
5-15 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.9
4-16 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18 0.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.7% 14.6% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.1 3.6 3.3 2.6 85.3 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 93.9% 5.2 5.1 5.1 25.5 25.5 17.3 10.2 5.1