Preseason Rankings
Cleveland St.
Horizon
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#215
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.2#136
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#201
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#212
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.1% 23.1% 11.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.7% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.1 14.4
.500 or above 62.6% 89.6% 60.1%
.500 or above in Conference 71.6% 90.1% 69.9%
Conference Champion 14.5% 30.6% 13.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 0.5% 2.8%
First Four1.7% 1.2% 1.7%
First Round11.3% 22.6% 10.3%
Second Round1.1% 3.2% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.8% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cincinnati (Away) - 8.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 53 - 8
Quad 413 - 516 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2022 53   @ Cincinnati L 65-80 8%    
  Nov 12, 2022 144   @ Ohio L 69-75 28%    
  Nov 16, 2022 290   @ Canisius W 74-71 60%    
  Nov 18, 2022 360   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 80-59 97%    
  Nov 23, 2022 362   Chicago St. W 82-59 97%    
  Nov 26, 2022 262   @ Western Michigan W 70-69 51%    
  Dec 01, 2022 214   Oakland W 75-72 60%    
  Dec 03, 2022 229   Detroit Mercy W 74-70 63%    
  Dec 07, 2022 103   @ St. Bonaventure L 65-75 21%    
  Dec 10, 2022 120   Kent St. L 69-71 42%    
  Dec 18, 2022 155   @ Loyola Marymount L 69-75 32%    
  Dec 29, 2022 223   @ Youngstown St. L 73-75 42%    
  Dec 31, 2022 277   @ Robert Morris W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 05, 2023 306   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76-66 78%    
  Jan 07, 2023 347   Green Bay W 75-61 88%    
  Jan 14, 2023 333   @ IUPUI W 70-64 70%    
  Jan 16, 2023 197   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 71-75 38%    
  Jan 19, 2023 195   @ Northern Kentucky L 66-70 37%    
  Jan 21, 2023 171   @ Wright St. L 72-77 35%    
  Jan 27, 2023 197   Purdue Fort Wayne W 74-72 57%    
  Jan 29, 2023 333   IUPUI W 73-61 84%    
  Feb 02, 2023 229   @ Detroit Mercy L 71-73 44%    
  Feb 04, 2023 214   @ Oakland L 72-75 40%    
  Feb 10, 2023 277   Robert Morris W 77-70 72%    
  Feb 12, 2023 223   Youngstown St. W 76-72 61%    
  Feb 17, 2023 171   Wright St. W 75-74 54%    
  Feb 19, 2023 195   Northern Kentucky W 69-67 56%    
  Feb 23, 2023 347   @ Green Bay W 72-64 74%    
  Feb 25, 2023 306   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 73-69 61%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.2 3.9 2.8 1.6 0.5 14.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.6 4.2 2.9 1.0 0.2 13.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.4 3.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.9 3.3 0.9 0.1 12.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 2.6 4.4 2.6 0.6 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 2.8 3.9 2.2 0.3 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.7 3.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 2.4 0.9 0.1 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.7 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.6 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.5 3.6 5.0 6.4 7.7 8.6 9.9 10.3 9.8 9.1 7.7 6.4 4.9 2.9 1.6 0.5 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 1.6    1.5 0.0
18-2 94.8% 2.8    2.5 0.3
17-3 79.1% 3.9    2.8 1.0 0.1 0.0
16-4 50.6% 3.2    1.8 1.2 0.3 0.0
15-5 24.4% 1.9    0.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.8% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.5% 14.5 9.8 3.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 69.6% 65.6% 4.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11.6%
19-1 1.6% 56.2% 54.1% 2.1% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 4.7%
18-2 2.9% 46.1% 45.9% 0.3% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 0.5%
17-3 4.9% 34.2% 34.2% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.2
16-4 6.4% 27.0% 27.0% 14.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 4.6
15-5 7.7% 19.6% 19.6% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 6.2
14-6 9.1% 14.0% 14.0% 14.9 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 7.8
13-7 9.8% 11.7% 11.7% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 8.7
12-8 10.3% 8.2% 8.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 9.5
11-9 9.9% 5.6% 5.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 9.3
10-10 8.6% 4.1% 4.1% 15.9 0.0 0.3 8.2
9-11 7.7% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.4
8-12 6.4% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 6.3
7-13 5.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 5.0
6-14 3.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.6
5-15 2.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.5
4-16 1.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.7
3-17 0.9% 0.9
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.1% 12.0% 0.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.2 2.7 2.8 2.9 87.9 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 6.3 6.6 6.6 13.2 47.4 6.6 13.2 6.6