Preseason Rankings
Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.9#229
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.9#301
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#157
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#292
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.8% 17.9% 8.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Average Seed 14.3 13.4 14.5
.500 or above 44.8% 76.5% 40.4%
.500 or above in Conference 65.3% 84.9% 62.5%
Conference Champion 11.4% 23.5% 9.7%
Last Place in Conference 3.5% 1.0% 3.8%
First Four1.9% 1.5% 1.9%
First Round8.9% 17.3% 7.8%
Second Round0.8% 1.9% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boston College (Away) - 12.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 31 - 5
Quad 33 - 63 - 11
Quad 411 - 514 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 86   @ Boston College L 62-75 12%    
  Nov 16, 2022 144   Ohio L 71-72 45%    
  Nov 19, 2022 125   @ Florida Atlantic L 67-76 22%    
  Nov 21, 2022 163   Bryant L 78-81 40%    
  Nov 23, 2022 164   Charlotte L 70-71 50%    
  Nov 25, 2022 71   @ Washington St. L 62-76 12%    
  Dec 01, 2022 197   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 70-75 34%    
  Dec 03, 2022 215   @ Cleveland St. L 70-74 37%    
  Dec 07, 2022 136   @ Tulsa L 66-74 25%    
  Dec 10, 2022 164   @ Charlotte L 67-73 31%    
  Dec 18, 2022 226   @ Eastern Michigan L 73-76 40%    
  Dec 21, 2022 53   @ Cincinnati L 64-80 10%    
  Dec 29, 2022 347   Green Bay W 74-61 86%    
  Dec 31, 2022 306   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 75-66 75%    
  Jan 06, 2023 171   @ Wright St. L 71-77 32%    
  Jan 08, 2023 195   @ Northern Kentucky L 65-70 35%    
  Jan 12, 2023 223   Youngstown St. W 75-72 58%    
  Jan 14, 2023 277   Robert Morris W 75-69 70%    
  Jan 21, 2023 333   @ IUPUI W 69-64 67%    
  Jan 23, 2023 214   Oakland W 74-72 56%    
  Jan 27, 2023 277   @ Robert Morris W 73-72 51%    
  Jan 29, 2023 223   @ Youngstown St. L 72-75 40%    
  Feb 02, 2023 215   Cleveland St. W 73-71 56%    
  Feb 04, 2023 197   Purdue Fort Wayne W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 09, 2023 306   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 72-69 58%    
  Feb 11, 2023 347   @ Green Bay W 71-64 72%    
  Feb 17, 2023 214   @ Oakland L 71-75 38%    
  Feb 19, 2023 333   IUPUI W 72-61 81%    
  Feb 23, 2023 195   Northern Kentucky W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 25, 2023 171   Wright St. W 75-74 50%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.7 2.9 2.2 1.0 0.3 11.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.2 3.7 2.2 0.7 0.1 11.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.0 3.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 11.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.4 3.1 0.9 0.1 11.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 2.9 4.5 2.6 0.5 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.1 4.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.2 3.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.9 2.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.4 1.7 0.5 0.1 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.2 3.4 4.9 6.0 7.3 8.8 9.6 9.8 9.7 9.1 8.1 6.7 5.1 3.6 2.3 1.0 0.3 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
18-2 95.5% 2.2    1.9 0.3 0.0
17-3 80.1% 2.9    2.1 0.7 0.0
16-4 52.7% 2.7    1.5 1.0 0.2 0.0
15-5 25.3% 1.7    0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.9% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.4% 11.4 7.4 3.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 75.0% 65.3% 9.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 28.2%
19-1 1.0% 51.9% 48.9% 3.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 5.9%
18-2 2.3% 46.1% 45.0% 1.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.2 2.0%
17-3 3.6% 31.6% 31.4% 0.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.4 0.4%
16-4 5.1% 25.6% 25.6% 13.9 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 3.8
15-5 6.7% 19.6% 19.6% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 5.4 0.0%
14-6 8.1% 15.2% 15.2% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 6.9
13-7 9.1% 10.9% 10.9% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 8.1
12-8 9.7% 7.3% 7.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 9.0
11-9 9.8% 5.7% 5.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 9.2
10-10 9.6% 3.7% 3.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 9.2
9-11 8.8% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.2 8.6
8-12 7.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 7.2
7-13 6.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 6.0
6-14 4.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.8
5-15 3.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.4
4-16 2.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.2
3-17 1.3% 1.3
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.8% 9.8% 0.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.6 90.2 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%