Preseason Rankings
Southwestern Athletic
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
241 Texas Southern 36.5%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 14 - 4 -3.3      -3.4 279 +0.1 170 69.8 122 0.0 1 0.0 1
279 Southern 19.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 12 - 6 -6.3      -5.1 312 -1.3 215 74.5 42 0.0 1 0.0 1
285 Prairie View 15.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 12 - 6 -7.3      -4.2 295 -3.1 274 75.6 27 0.0 1 0.0 1
308 Jackson St. 10.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 18 11 - 7 -8.8      -7.9 349 -0.9 199 62.3 333 0.0 1 0.0 1
318 Grambling St. 9.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 10 - 8 -9.5      -6.1 329 -3.3 276 72.0 76 0.0 1 0.0 1
341 Alabama A&M 3.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 10 - 8 -12.5      -10.4 355 -2.1 243 67.0 216 0.0 1 0.0 1
350 Alcorn St. 1.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 22 8 - 10 -14.5      -7.6 347 -6.9 345 68.8 157 0.0 1 0.0 1
351 Florida A&M 1.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 19 8 - 10 -15.4      -10.2 354 -5.2 318 64.5 280 0.0 1 0.0 1
353 Bethune-Cookman 1.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 20 7 - 11 -16.4      -8.9 351 -7.5 350 65.8 248 0.0 1 0.0 1
354 Alabama St. 1.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 22 8 - 10 -16.4      -10.9 356 -5.5 326 73.5 53 0.0 1 0.0 1
360 Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 22 5 - 13 -20.3      -12.9 360 -7.5 351 69.0 149 0.0 1 0.0 1
363 Mississippi Valley 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 28 3 - 15 -24.4      -12.3 359 -12.1 363 76.0 26 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Texas Southern 2.6 41.0 21.2 13.4 9.0 5.9 4.1 2.7 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Southern 3.4 25.4 19.6 15.2 11.5 9.0 6.7 4.9 3.4 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.2
Prairie View 4.0 18.0 16.8 14.9 13.1 11.2 8.7 7.0 4.6 2.8 1.8 0.8 0.3
Jackson St. 4.2 13.8 15.9 15.8 14.0 11.7 9.2 7.3 5.2 3.5 2.1 1.1 0.4
Grambling St. 5.0 10.6 12.1 12.6 12.4 11.9 10.9 9.3 7.6 5.7 4.0 2.2 0.8
Alabama A&M 5.7 6.4 9.2 10.7 11.6 12.1 11.6 10.6 9.3 7.7 5.5 3.5 1.6
Alcorn St. 6.8 2.6 4.8 7.1 8.9 10.2 11.8 12.6 12.3 11.3 8.9 6.4 3.3
Florida A&M 7.4 1.7 3.6 5.2 6.9 8.3 10.5 12.1 12.6 12.9 12.6 9.7 4.0
Bethune-Cookman 7.9 1.0 2.2 3.7 5.5 7.3 9.0 11.1 12.7 14.3 14.9 12.4 5.9
Alabama St. 7.4 1.8 3.5 5.1 6.7 8.6 10.2 12.0 12.5 12.6 11.6 9.7 5.6
Arkansas Pine Bluff 9.3 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.3 3.5 5.0 7.1 9.8 13.5 17.8 21.1 17.5
Mississippi Valley 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 3.2 4.9 8.3 13.6 23.1 42.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Texas Southern 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.1 3.2 5.1 7.2 9.6 12.2 14.2 14.5 13.9 10.4 5.2
Southern 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.9 4.4 5.9 7.9 10.0 11.4 12.7 12.4 11.4 9.0 5.8 2.2
Prairie View 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.7 4.1 6.0 7.8 10.1 11.3 12.3 11.8 11.2 9.0 6.2 3.5 1.1
Jackson St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.1 4.9 6.6 8.5 10.4 11.7 12.8 11.7 10.5 7.9 5.0 2.5 0.7
Grambling St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.1 3.6 5.3 6.4 8.7 10.1 11.0 11.3 11.0 9.5 7.9 5.7 3.6 1.6 0.5
Alabama A&M 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.1 4.9 6.9 8.6 10.0 10.8 11.2 10.9 9.3 7.9 5.9 4.0 2.3 0.9 0.3
Alcorn St. 8 - 10 0.2 0.9 2.0 3.5 5.9 7.7 9.9 11.2 11.5 11.3 10.3 8.5 6.8 4.8 2.7 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.0
Florida A&M 8 - 10 0.3 1.6 3.2 5.6 8.1 9.6 11.2 11.8 11.2 10.2 8.5 6.7 4.9 3.3 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 7 - 11 0.6 2.1 4.7 7.4 9.7 11.4 12.2 11.6 10.8 9.1 7.2 5.2 3.8 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Alabama St. 8 - 10 0.5 1.6 3.4 5.8 7.9 9.9 10.9 11.5 11.1 10.1 8.4 6.5 4.9 3.5 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 5 - 13 2.7 6.6 10.6 12.8 13.7 12.8 11.4 9.2 6.9 4.9 3.5 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Mississippi Valley 3 - 15 10.4 16.5 18.0 15.5 12.5 9.6 6.7 4.4 3.0 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Texas Southern 41.0% 30.2 8.8 1.7 0.3 0.0
Southern 25.4% 17.2 6.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Prairie View 18.0% 11.6 5.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Jackson St. 13.8% 8.4 4.1 1.0 0.2 0.0
Grambling St. 10.6% 6.4 3.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Alabama A&M 6.4% 3.5 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Alcorn St. 2.6% 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida A&M 1.7% 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 1.0% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Alabama St. 1.8% 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Texas Southern 36.5% 36.5% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 5.0 9.6 19.3 63.5 0.0%
Southern 19.1% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.5 12.0 80.9 0.0%
Prairie View 15.4% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.6 11.4 84.6 0.0%
Jackson St. 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 8.5 89.4 0.0%
Grambling St. 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 6.9 90.9 0.0%
Alabama A&M 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 3.1 96.3 0.0%
Alcorn St. 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7 98.1 0.0%
Florida A&M 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 98.6 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 1.0 99.0 0.0%
Alabama St. 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 1.0 99.0 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Texas Southern 36.5% 11.5% 30.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern 19.1% 7.8% 14.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prairie View 15.4% 8.1% 10.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 10.6% 6.6% 7.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grambling St. 9.1% 4.9% 6.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama A&M 3.7% 2.4% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alcorn St. 1.9% 1.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida A&M 1.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 73.9% 0.7 26.1 73.9 0.0
2nd Round 2.3% 0.0 97.7 2.3
Sweet Sixteen 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0