Preseason Rankings
Maryland Baltimore Co.
America East
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.2#236
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.7#105
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#191
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#267
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.5% 20.9% 9.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 13.7 14.7
.500 or above 68.1% 92.9% 65.3%
.500 or above in Conference 72.9% 90.8% 70.8%
Conference Champion 12.5% 25.9% 10.9%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 0.7% 4.0%
First Four1.6% 1.2% 1.7%
First Round9.7% 20.3% 8.4%
Second Round0.7% 2.4% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulane (Away) - 10.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 42 - 7
Quad 415 - 617 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 82   @ Tulane L 69-82 10%    
  Nov 14, 2022 165   Princeton L 75-76 49%    
  Nov 18, 2022 271   Lafayette W 75-69 68%    
  Nov 20, 2022 349   Central Connecticut St. W 78-64 88%    
  Nov 22, 2022 139   @ UNC Greensboro L 63-71 24%    
  Nov 26, 2022 102   @ Georgetown L 73-84 17%    
  Nov 30, 2022 336   Coppin St. W 84-73 83%    
  Dec 03, 2022 282   @ Lehigh W 76-75 52%    
  Dec 06, 2022 315   @ Columbia W 78-75 60%    
  Dec 10, 2022 287   Morgan St. W 81-74 73%    
  Dec 13, 2022 297   @ Loyola Maryland W 70-68 56%    
  Dec 18, 2022 295   William & Mary W 79-71 73%    
  Dec 29, 2022 48   @ Maryland L 65-82 9%    
  Jan 01, 2023 104   Vermont L 69-74 34%    
  Jan 05, 2023 300   Albany W 73-65 74%    
  Jan 08, 2023 163   @ Bryant L 79-85 30%    
  Jan 14, 2023 337   Maine W 74-63 82%    
  Jan 16, 2023 327   Hartford W 78-68 79%    
  Jan 19, 2023 238   @ Umass Lowell L 72-75 40%    
  Jan 22, 2023 329   New Hampshire W 72-61 80%    
  Jan 25, 2023 325   @ NJIT W 73-69 62%    
  Jan 28, 2023 104   @ Vermont L 66-77 19%    
  Feb 01, 2023 323   Binghamton W 79-69 78%    
  Feb 04, 2023 337   @ Maine W 71-66 67%    
  Feb 08, 2023 325   NJIT W 76-66 78%    
  Feb 11, 2023 163   Bryant L 82-83 49%    
  Feb 15, 2023 300   @ Albany W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 18, 2023 329   @ New Hampshire W 69-64 64%    
  Feb 22, 2023 238   Umass Lowell W 75-72 59%    
  Feb 28, 2023 323   @ Binghamton W 76-72 62%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.4 3.8 2.3 0.7 12.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.8 6.4 4.0 0.9 18.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.5 6.8 5.9 2.0 0.2 19.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 4.9 6.6 3.6 0.8 0.0 17.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 4.5 4.6 1.8 0.2 0.0 12.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.7 3.0 0.8 0.1 9.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 0.9 0.2 3.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 1.9 9th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.2 5.0 7.1 9.0 11.0 12.2 12.4 11.9 10.1 7.6 4.7 2.3 0.7 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
15-1 100.0% 2.3    2.2 0.2
14-2 81.7% 3.8    2.6 1.2 0.0
13-3 44.7% 3.4    1.6 1.5 0.3
12-4 16.9% 1.7    0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0
11-5 3.6% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 12.5% 12.5 7.7 3.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.7% 60.7% 57.4% 3.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 7.9%
15-1 2.3% 47.0% 46.2% 0.7% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 1.4%
14-2 4.7% 36.0% 35.9% 0.1% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 3.0 0.2%
13-3 7.6% 25.6% 25.6% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 5.6 0.1%
12-4 10.1% 17.1% 17.1% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.5 8.4
11-5 11.9% 11.3% 11.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 10.5
10-6 12.4% 8.3% 8.3% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 11.4
9-7 12.2% 4.5% 4.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 11.6
8-8 11.0% 3.4% 3.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 10.6
7-9 9.0% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 8.8
6-10 7.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 7.0
5-11 5.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.9
4-12 3.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.2
3-13 1.8% 1.8
2-14 0.8% 0.8
1-15 0.3% 0.3
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.5 2.7 3.0 89.5 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 77.8% 6.7 22.2 11.1 11.1 11.1 22.2