Preseason Rankings
Central Florida
American Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.1#92
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.9#153
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#104
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#92
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.7% 2.0% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 3.7% 4.3% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.0% 20.3% 5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12.9% 14.8% 2.4%
Average Seed 9.1 9.0 11.6
.500 or above 60.7% 66.5% 29.2%
.500 or above in Conference 51.7% 55.9% 28.5%
Conference Champion 4.4% 5.1% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 8.1% 6.4% 17.1%
First Four3.3% 3.6% 1.7%
First Round16.4% 18.5% 4.8%
Second Round7.6% 8.8% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen2.7% 3.1% 0.3%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Home) - 84.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 6
Quad 23 - 44 - 10
Quad 35 - 39 - 12
Quad 47 - 116 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 211   UNC Asheville W 78-67 84%    
  Nov 11, 2022 42   Florida St. L 71-73 43%    
  Nov 14, 2022 288   Western Illinois W 84-67 93%    
  Nov 18, 2022 38   Oklahoma St. L 68-74 31%    
  Nov 23, 2022 313   Evansville W 75-57 94%    
  Nov 27, 2022 32   Miami (FL) L 71-74 40%    
  Dec 04, 2022 172   Samford W 81-72 78%    
  Dec 11, 2022 245   Tarleton St. W 71-58 85%    
  Dec 14, 2022 58   @ Mississippi L 66-72 30%    
  Dec 16, 2022 70   Missouri L 69-71 43%    
  Dec 21, 2022 292   Stetson W 78-61 92%    
  Dec 28, 2022 94   Wichita St. W 72-69 59%    
  Dec 31, 2022 5   @ Houston L 59-74 11%    
  Jan 04, 2023 192   @ East Carolina W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 08, 2023 95   SMU W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 11, 2023 35   Memphis L 72-75 41%    
  Jan 14, 2023 82   @ Tulane L 71-75 38%    
  Jan 21, 2023 142   @ South Florida W 67-65 55%    
  Jan 25, 2023 5   Houston L 62-71 24%    
  Jan 28, 2023 93   Temple W 71-68 59%    
  Feb 04, 2023 53   @ Cincinnati L 68-75 30%    
  Feb 08, 2023 94   @ Wichita St. L 69-72 41%    
  Feb 11, 2023 136   Tulsa W 73-66 71%    
  Feb 16, 2023 35   @ Memphis L 69-78 24%    
  Feb 19, 2023 53   Cincinnati L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 22, 2023 142   South Florida W 70-62 72%    
  Feb 26, 2023 136   @ Tulsa W 70-69 53%    
  Mar 02, 2023 93   @ Temple L 68-71 41%    
  Mar 05, 2023 192   East Carolina W 76-66 78%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.1 4.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.8 2.4 1.0 0.2 8.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.0 3.8 2.2 0.5 0.0 10.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.7 4.3 1.8 0.2 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 4.3 4.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.3 4.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 4.4 4.1 1.1 0.1 11.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.0 3.7 1.0 0.1 10.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.4 3.0 0.7 0.0 8.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.7 1.9 0.5 0.0 7.4 10th
11th 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.8 11th
Total 0.2 0.9 1.8 3.5 5.1 7.0 8.8 10.3 10.8 11.0 10.2 9.4 7.4 5.7 4.0 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.4 0.0
16-2 85.4% 1.0    0.8 0.2
15-3 55.2% 1.3    0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 25.5% 1.0    0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 9.0% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.4% 4.4 2.5 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 42.2% 57.8% 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.5% 99.0% 26.5% 72.5% 3.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.6%
16-2 1.1% 96.8% 24.2% 72.7% 4.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.8%
15-3 2.3% 89.9% 20.5% 69.4% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 87.3%
14-4 4.0% 78.6% 17.0% 61.6% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 74.2%
13-5 5.7% 60.8% 13.0% 47.8% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.2 55.0%
12-6 7.4% 37.7% 9.4% 28.3% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.6 31.2%
11-7 9.4% 21.8% 8.3% 13.5% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.3 14.8%
10-8 10.2% 10.7% 5.6% 5.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.1 5.4%
9-9 11.0% 6.8% 5.2% 1.6% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.2 1.6%
8-10 10.8% 3.4% 3.2% 0.3% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.4 0.3%
7-11 10.3% 2.4% 2.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.0
6-12 8.8% 2.3% 2.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.6
5-13 7.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 7.0
4-14 5.1% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 5.1
3-15 3.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.5
2-16 1.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.8
1-17 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 18.0% 5.9% 12.1% 9.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.6 2.2 2.6 3.5 1.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 82.0 12.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 50.8 49.2