Preseason Rankings
Baylor
Big 12
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+18.5#4
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.1#140
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+10.6#5
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.9#14
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 6.2% 6.2% n/a
#1 Seed 20.2% 20.2% n/a
Top 2 Seed 35.4% 35.4% n/a
Top 4 Seed 55.9% 55.9% n/a
Top 6 Seed 69.5% 69.5% n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 85.8% 85.8% n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 82.4% 82.4% n/a
Average Seed 3.9 3.9 n/a
.500 or above 95.2% 95.2% n/a
.500 or above in Conference 83.9% 83.9% n/a
Conference Champion 29.6% 29.6% n/a
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 1.7% n/a
First Four2.0% 2.0% n/a
First Round84.9% 84.9% n/a
Second Round71.7% 71.7% n/a
Sweet Sixteen47.9% 47.9% n/a
Elite Eight29.5% 29.5% n/a
Final Four17.4% 17.4% n/a
Championship Game9.8% 9.8% n/a
National Champion5.3% 5.3% n/a

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Home) - 100.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 7
Quad 25 - 113 - 8
Quad 33 - 016 - 8
Quad 46 - 022 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 363   Mississippi Valley W 100-54 99.9%   
  Nov 11, 2022 190   Norfolk St. W 82-60 98%    
  Nov 14, 2022 213   Northern Colorado W 90-67 98%    
  Nov 18, 2022 20   Virginia W 64-60 64%    
  Nov 23, 2022 331   McNeese St. W 93-61 99.7%   
  Nov 29, 2022 63   @ Marquette W 80-74 70%    
  Dec 02, 2022 1   Gonzaga L 81-84 41%    
  Dec 06, 2022 245   Tarleton St. W 79-54 98%    
  Dec 18, 2022 71   Washington St. W 76-66 80%    
  Dec 20, 2022 338   Northwestern St. W 95-62 99.6%   
  Dec 28, 2022 220   Nicholls St. W 88-64 97%    
  Dec 31, 2022 51   @ Iowa St. W 72-67 67%    
  Jan 04, 2023 19   TCU W 74-67 72%    
  Jan 07, 2023 68   Kansas St. W 78-65 85%    
  Jan 11, 2023 56   @ West Virginia W 77-71 68%    
  Jan 14, 2023 38   Oklahoma St. W 77-67 78%    
  Jan 17, 2023 17   @ Texas Tech W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 21, 2023 33   @ Oklahoma W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 23, 2023 6   Kansas W 78-74 61%    
  Jan 28, 2023 11   Arkansas W 78-73 65%    
  Jan 30, 2023 9   @ Texas L 67-68 45%    
  Feb 04, 2023 17   Texas Tech W 73-66 70%    
  Feb 08, 2023 33   Oklahoma W 75-66 77%    
  Feb 11, 2023 19   @ TCU W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 13, 2023 56   West Virginia W 80-68 82%    
  Feb 18, 2023 6   @ Kansas L 75-77 42%    
  Feb 21, 2023 68   @ Kansas St. W 75-68 71%    
  Feb 25, 2023 9   Texas W 70-65 64%    
  Feb 27, 2023 38   @ Oklahoma St. W 74-70 61%    
  Mar 04, 2023 51   Iowa St. W 75-64 81%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 2.5 5.1 7.6 7.2 4.7 2.0 29.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.1 6.2 5.4 2.3 0.5 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.3 5.1 2.9 0.6 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.9 3.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.2 1.3 3.4 2.7 0.7 0.1 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.9 4.1 5.4 7.2 8.4 10.0 11.1 11.8 11.1 9.9 7.7 4.7 2.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.0    2.0
17-1 100.0% 4.7    4.5 0.1
16-2 93.2% 7.2    6.1 1.1 0.0
15-3 76.1% 7.6    5.4 2.0 0.1
14-4 45.8% 5.1    2.6 2.1 0.4 0.0
13-5 21.0% 2.5    0.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.0% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.6% 29.6 21.4 6.7 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.0% 100.0% 49.7% 50.3% 1.1 1.8 0.2 100.0%
17-1 4.7% 100.0% 41.5% 58.5% 1.2 3.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 7.7% 100.0% 35.3% 64.7% 1.4 5.2 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 9.9% 100.0% 27.9% 72.1% 1.7 4.8 3.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 11.1% 100.0% 23.4% 76.6% 2.3 2.9 4.1 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 11.8% 99.9% 19.9% 80.0% 3.1 1.2 3.0 3.5 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 11.1% 99.5% 15.5% 84.0% 4.2 0.3 1.2 2.7 2.6 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.4%
11-7 10.0% 98.0% 13.8% 84.3% 5.4 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.7%
10-8 8.4% 92.2% 10.8% 81.4% 6.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.7 91.2%
9-9 7.2% 78.5% 9.5% 69.0% 7.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 76.2%
8-10 5.4% 52.7% 7.7% 44.9% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 48.7%
7-11 4.1% 26.4% 5.8% 20.6% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 21.9%
6-12 2.9% 8.6% 4.3% 4.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 4.5%
5-13 1.7% 4.8% 3.8% 1.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.1%
4-14 1.1% 2.6% 2.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.1
3-15 0.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-16 0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 85.8% 19.0% 66.8% 3.9 20.2 15.2 11.7 8.9 7.5 6.1 5.0 3.8 2.7 2.3 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 14.2 82.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 1.1 92.4 7.6