Preseason Rankings
Cal Poly
Big West
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#273
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.3#317
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#306
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#204
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 7.9% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 13.7 14.9
.500 or above 23.3% 56.1% 20.9%
.500 or above in Conference 31.7% 58.3% 29.8%
Conference Champion 2.6% 8.6% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 18.5% 5.9% 19.5%
First Four1.0% 0.8% 1.0%
First Round2.8% 7.4% 2.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Francisco (Away) - 6.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 73 - 13
Quad 49 - 712 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2022 83   @ San Francisco L 60-76 7%    
  Nov 18, 2022 57   @ Stanford L 55-74 5%    
  Nov 20, 2022 267   Mount St. Mary's W 62-59 59%    
  Nov 23, 2022 342   Idaho W 74-64 80%    
  Nov 28, 2022 228   @ Pacific L 64-70 31%    
  Nov 30, 2022 194   @ Pepperdine L 66-74 25%    
  Dec 03, 2022 193   California Baptist L 66-68 43%    
  Dec 10, 2022 278   Portland St. W 70-67 61%    
  Dec 13, 2022 89   @ Washington L 60-76 10%    
  Dec 16, 2022 208   Weber St. L 69-70 45%    
  Dec 20, 2022 210   @ San Jose St. L 62-69 27%    
  Dec 29, 2022 311   Cal St. Northridge W 68-62 68%    
  Dec 31, 2022 157   @ Hawaii L 59-69 22%    
  Jan 05, 2023 284   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 61-63 44%    
  Jan 07, 2023 129   UC Santa Barbara L 63-69 32%    
  Jan 11, 2023 188   @ Long Beach St. L 67-75 25%    
  Jan 16, 2023 207   @ UC Riverside L 60-67 28%    
  Jan 19, 2023 264   UC San Diego W 69-67 58%    
  Jan 21, 2023 232   @ UC Davis L 62-68 32%    
  Jan 26, 2023 188   Long Beach St. L 70-72 42%    
  Jan 28, 2023 191   Cal St. Fullerton L 64-66 43%    
  Feb 02, 2023 129   @ UC Santa Barbara L 60-72 17%    
  Feb 04, 2023 157   Hawaii L 62-66 38%    
  Feb 09, 2023 143   @ UC Irvine L 57-68 20%    
  Feb 11, 2023 311   @ Cal St. Northridge W 65-64 50%    
  Feb 15, 2023 284   Cal St. Bakersfield W 64-60 62%    
  Feb 18, 2023 191   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 61-69 26%    
  Feb 20, 2023 143   UC Irvine L 60-65 36%    
  Feb 25, 2023 232   UC Davis W 65-64 50%    
  Mar 02, 2023 264   @ UC San Diego L 66-70 39%    
  Mar 04, 2023 207   UC Riverside L 63-64 45%    
Projected Record 12 - 19 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.5 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.0 5.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.0 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 6.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.8 3.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.5 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.0 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.6 4.6 3.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 12.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.6 4.8 2.8 0.8 0.1 13.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 2.4 4.2 4.0 2.0 0.5 0.0 14.0 10th
11th 0.7 2.0 3.4 3.5 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 12.8 11th
Total 0.7 2.1 4.1 6.0 7.8 9.1 9.9 9.9 9.7 9.0 8.2 6.6 5.4 4.1 2.9 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 97.7% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 81.1% 0.6    0.4 0.1 0.0
16-4 54.7% 0.7    0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 27.3% 0.6    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 8.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 50.0% 37.5% 12.5% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0%
19-1 0.1% 45.7% 35.5% 10.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15.8%
18-2 0.3% 35.8% 35.0% 0.8% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2%
17-3 0.7% 34.0% 34.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-4 1.2% 22.3% 22.3% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.1%
15-5 2.1% 15.6% 15.6% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.8
14-6 2.9% 11.7% 11.7% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.5
13-7 4.1% 8.6% 8.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.8
12-8 5.4% 7.1% 7.1% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 5.0
11-9 6.6% 5.4% 5.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 6.3
10-10 8.2% 3.3% 3.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 7.9
9-11 9.0% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 8.8
8-12 9.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 9.6
7-13 9.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 9.8
6-14 9.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 9.8
5-15 9.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.0
4-16 7.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.8
3-17 6.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.0
2-18 4.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.1
1-19 2.1% 2.1
0-20 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.3 96.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%