Preseason Rankings
Missouri St.
Missouri Valley
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.5#131
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.0#187
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#111
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#173
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 1.2% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 2.6% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.5% 23.4% 9.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.8% 9.6% 1.5%
Average Seed 11.7 10.5 12.4
.500 or above 62.0% 86.4% 56.8%
.500 or above in Conference 63.6% 82.3% 59.6%
Conference Champion 10.1% 20.4% 7.9%
Last Place in Conference 3.7% 0.9% 4.2%
First Four1.9% 3.9% 1.5%
First Round10.7% 21.3% 8.4%
Second Round2.6% 7.1% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 2.4% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.8% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: BYU (Away) - 17.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 32 - 6
Quad 35 - 57 - 11
Quad 48 - 215 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 16, 2022 55   @ BYU L 69-79 18%    
  Nov 19, 2022 137   Middle Tennessee W 73-70 62%    
  Nov 25, 2022 179   UNC Wilmington W 73-70 60%    
  Nov 30, 2022 247   @ Illinois-Chicago W 76-73 61%    
  Dec 03, 2022 117   Bradley W 73-71 56%    
  Dec 07, 2022 44   @ St. Mary's L 61-72 18%    
  Dec 10, 2022 197   Purdue Fort Wayne W 77-70 71%    
  Dec 16, 2022 122   @ Oral Roberts L 78-82 37%    
  Dec 18, 2022 263   Central Michigan W 79-68 82%    
  Dec 22, 2022 175   Sam Houston St. W 71-65 68%    
  Dec 28, 2022 132   @ Northern Iowa L 71-74 41%    
  Jan 01, 2023 74   Drake L 70-73 42%    
  Jan 04, 2023 313   Evansville W 75-60 88%    
  Jan 07, 2023 115   @ Belmont L 73-77 37%    
  Jan 11, 2023 180   @ Illinois St. L 73-74 50%    
  Jan 15, 2023 161   Indiana St. W 76-71 66%    
  Jan 18, 2023 74   @ Drake L 67-76 25%    
  Jan 21, 2023 138   Southern Illinois W 67-63 62%    
  Jan 24, 2023 247   Illinois-Chicago W 79-70 76%    
  Jan 28, 2023 114   @ Murray St. L 69-73 37%    
  Feb 01, 2023 212   Valparaiso W 73-66 72%    
  Feb 05, 2023 138   @ Southern Illinois L 64-66 43%    
  Feb 08, 2023 115   Belmont W 76-74 56%    
  Feb 12, 2023 313   @ Evansville W 72-63 75%    
  Feb 15, 2023 117   @ Bradley L 70-74 38%    
  Feb 18, 2023 132   Northern Iowa W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 21, 2023 114   Murray St. W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 26, 2023 161   @ Indiana St. L 73-74 48%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.5 2.6 1.8 1.0 0.2 10.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.8 3.5 2.1 0.8 0.1 10.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.7 3.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 10.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.1 3.3 1.0 0.1 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.0 3.2 0.7 0.1 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.9 2.9 0.7 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.9 2.7 0.6 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.4 2.6 0.6 0.0 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 2.7 1.9 0.5 0.0 7.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 6.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.2 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.4 3.6 5.0 6.3 7.7 9.0 9.3 9.5 9.8 9.0 8.0 6.6 4.9 3.4 2.0 1.0 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
18-2 93.5% 1.8    1.6 0.2
17-3 76.8% 2.6    2.0 0.6 0.1
16-4 50.4% 2.5    1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0
15-5 21.8% 1.4    0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1
14-6 6.0% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.1% 10.1 6.7 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 96.8% 50.6% 46.2% 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.5%
19-1 1.0% 81.6% 41.1% 40.5% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 68.8%
18-2 2.0% 67.1% 36.6% 30.5% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 48.1%
17-3 3.4% 48.9% 30.2% 18.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 26.8%
16-4 4.9% 31.7% 21.6% 10.1% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.4 12.9%
15-5 6.6% 20.4% 16.7% 3.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.2 4.4%
14-6 8.0% 14.6% 13.8% 0.8% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.8 0.9%
13-7 9.0% 10.1% 10.0% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.1 0.2%
12-8 9.8% 8.4% 8.3% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.0 0.1%
11-9 9.5% 5.8% 5.8% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 8.9
10-10 9.3% 4.6% 4.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 8.9
9-11 9.0% 3.4% 3.4% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.6
8-12 7.7% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 7.5
7-13 6.3% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 6.2
6-14 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 5.0
5-15 3.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.6
4-16 2.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.4
3-17 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.3
2-18 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 11.5% 8.9% 2.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.1 2.6 1.7 0.9 0.7 0.9 88.5 2.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.5 23.4 33.6 18.7 18.7 5.6
Lose Out 0.0%