IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.9	#294
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.1	#185
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.2	#315

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.7	#261

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.1%	3.6%	1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.1	14.2	15.3

.500 or above	11.3%	39.7%	9.8%
.500 or above in Conference	19.3%	44.9%	17.9%
Conference Champion	0.9%	3.5%	0.7%
Last Place in Conference	30.5%	11.2%	31.5%

First Four	0.5%	0.7%	0.5%
First Round	0.8%	3.4%	0.7%
Second Round	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern (Away) - 5.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 4	0 - 6
Quad 3	2 - 7	2 - 14
Quad 4	6 - 6	8 - 20

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 11, 2022	85	@ Northwestern	L	60-78	5%
Nov 17, 2022	97	@ Georgia Tech	L	61-78	7%
Nov 22, 2022	175	Sam Houston St.	L	61-69	26%
Nov 26, 2022	132	@ Northern Iowa	L	63-76	13%
Nov 30, 2022	330	@ Eastern Illinois	L	67-68	50%
Dec 02, 2022	342	@ Idaho	W	74-72	56%
Dec 12, 2022	1	@ Gonzaga	L	63-95	0.4%
Dec 17, 2022	75	@ Virginia Commonwealth	L	59-78	6%
Dec 20, 2022	300	Albany	W	67-64	60%
Dec 22, 2022	161	@ Indiana St.	L	66-77	18%
Jan 03, 2023	119	@ Akron	L	57-72	12%
Jan 07, 2023	133	@ Buffalo	L	69-82	15%
Jan 10, 2023	263	Central Michigan	W	71-70	52%
Jan 14, 2023	108	Toledo	L	69-78	22%
Jan 17, 2023	269	@ Miami (OH)	L	69-74	34%
Jan 21, 2023	226	@ Eastern Michigan	L	69-77	26%
Jan 24, 2023	120	Kent St.	L	64-72	25%
Jan 28, 2023	200	Ball St.	L	72-76	38%
Jan 31, 2023	262	@ Western Michigan	L	64-70	33%
Feb 04, 2023	234	@ Bowling Green	L	74-82	27%
Feb 07, 2023	144	Ohio	L	67-73	31%
Feb 11, 2023	262	Western Michigan	W	68-67	51%
Feb 14, 2023	200	@ Ball St.	L	69-79	22%
Feb 18, 2023	269	Miami (OH)	W	72-71	52%
Feb 21, 2023	144	@ Ohio	L	64-76	17%
Feb 25, 2023	263	@ Central Michigan	L	68-73	33%
Feb 28, 2023	133	Buffalo	L	72-79	29%
Mar 03, 2023	226	Eastern Michigan	L	72-74	44%
Projected Record						8 - 20	6 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mid-American Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.9	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0				1.7	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.2	0.8	1.0	0.5	0.1	0.0					2.6	3rd
4th									0.0	0.3	1.1	1.5	0.7	0.1	0.0						3.6	4th
5th								0.0	0.2	1.5	2.0	0.9	0.1	0.0							4.7	5th
6th							0.0	0.3	1.8	2.8	1.2	0.1	0.0								6.2	6th
7th						0.0	0.3	2.2	3.3	1.5	0.2	0.0									7.6	7th
8th					0.0	0.3	2.2	4.2	2.0	0.2	0.0										9.0	8th
9th				0.0	0.5	2.8	5.0	2.7	0.4												11.5	9th
10th			0.1	1.0	3.7	5.5	3.0	0.5	0.0												13.8	10th
11th		0.3	2.2	5.2	6.1	2.9	0.4	0.0													17.1	11th
12th	2.5	5.7	6.6	4.7	1.7	0.3	0.0														21.5	12th

Total	2.5	5.9	8.8	10.9	12.0	11.8	11.1	9.9	7.8	6.4	4.6	3.4	2.2	1.3	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0			Total

Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.0	0.0
16-2	87.8%	0.1		0.1	0.0
15-3	63.9%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0
14-4	34.6%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-5	11.3%	0.1		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-6	1.7%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0				0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.9%	0.9		0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%										0.0													0.0
17-1	0.1%		19.4%	19.4%		12.3												0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0
16-2	0.1%		23.0%	21.3%	1.7%	12.5										0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1		2.2%
15-3	0.4%		11.3%	11.3%		13.2												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.3
14-4	0.7%		10.0%	10.0%		13.7													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.7
13-5	1.3%		8.2%	8.2%		14.5													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.2
12-6	2.2%		5.6%	5.6%		14.8														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.1
11-7	3.4%		3.9%	3.9%		15.2														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	3.3
10-8	4.6%		2.1%	2.1%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.1	4.5
9-9	6.4%		1.6%	1.6%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.1	6.3
8-10	7.8%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.1	7.7
7-11	9.9%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.1	9.8
6-12	11.1%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	11.1
5-13	11.8%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	11.8
4-14	12.0%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	12.0
3-15	10.9%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	10.9
2-16	8.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	8.8
1-17	5.9%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	5.9
0-18	2.5%																							2.5

Total	100%		1.1%	1.1%	0.0%	15.1					0.0					0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.6	98.9		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.9%