Preseason Rankings
Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.3#132
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.2#178
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#142
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#148
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.9% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 1.8% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.7% 19.7% 7.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.3% 6.7% 1.0%
Average Seed 11.8 10.8 12.7
.500 or above 57.1% 80.7% 49.3%
.500 or above in Conference 63.1% 80.3% 57.4%
Conference Champion 10.0% 18.6% 7.2%
Last Place in Conference 3.8% 1.0% 4.7%
First Four1.6% 2.7% 1.2%
First Round9.9% 18.3% 7.1%
Second Round2.4% 5.5% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 1.7% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Richmond (Away) - 24.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 42 - 6
Quad 35 - 57 - 12
Quad 48 - 215 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 88   @ Richmond L 67-74 25%    
  Nov 14, 2022 20   @ Virginia L 54-69 10%    
  Nov 21, 2022 83   San Francisco L 71-76 34%    
  Nov 26, 2022 294   Northern Illinois W 76-63 87%    
  Nov 30, 2022 117   @ Bradley L 69-73 36%    
  Dec 03, 2022 313   Evansville W 74-59 88%    
  Dec 06, 2022 108   Toledo W 75-74 53%    
  Dec 09, 2022 331   McNeese St. W 83-67 91%    
  Dec 12, 2022 142   South Florida W 68-64 62%    
  Dec 17, 2022 118   Towson L 69-70 46%    
  Dec 22, 2022 103   St. Bonaventure W 70-69 52%    
  Dec 28, 2022 131   Missouri St. W 74-71 59%    
  Dec 31, 2022 180   @ Illinois St. L 72-73 49%    
  Jan 04, 2023 212   @ Valparaiso W 70-69 54%    
  Jan 07, 2023 138   Southern Illinois W 66-62 61%    
  Jan 10, 2023 114   Murray St. W 71-69 55%    
  Jan 14, 2023 115   @ Belmont L 72-76 36%    
  Jan 18, 2023 180   Illinois St. W 76-70 67%    
  Jan 21, 2023 247   @ Illinois-Chicago W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 25, 2023 212   Valparaiso W 73-66 71%    
  Jan 28, 2023 161   @ Indiana St. L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 01, 2023 74   @ Drake L 67-76 24%    
  Feb 04, 2023 117   Bradley W 72-70 55%    
  Feb 08, 2023 313   @ Evansville W 71-62 75%    
  Feb 11, 2023 161   Indiana St. W 76-71 65%    
  Feb 15, 2023 74   Drake L 70-73 41%    
  Feb 18, 2023 131   @ Missouri St. L 71-74 40%    
  Feb 22, 2023 138   @ Southern Illinois L 63-65 42%    
  Feb 26, 2023 115   Belmont W 75-73 55%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.5 2.5 1.9 0.9 0.3 10.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.8 3.4 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 10.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.6 3.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 10.6 3rd
4th 0.2 1.9 4.1 3.2 1.0 0.1 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.1 2.9 0.8 0.1 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.0 2.9 0.6 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.8 2.7 0.6 0.0 9.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.4 2.5 0.6 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.0 2.0 0.5 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 6.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.2 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.4 3.8 4.9 6.6 7.7 8.8 9.5 9.7 9.4 8.9 7.8 6.5 4.9 3.3 2.1 0.9 0.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 99.7% 0.9    0.8 0.0
18-2 92.5% 1.9    1.7 0.3 0.0
17-3 75.4% 2.5    1.8 0.6 0.1
16-4 51.4% 2.5    1.3 0.9 0.3 0.0
15-5 22.4% 1.5    0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0
14-6 5.7% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.0% 10.0 6.5 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 92.6% 60.1% 32.5% 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.4%
19-1 0.9% 81.4% 48.4% 32.9% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 63.9%
18-2 2.1% 61.3% 32.0% 29.3% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 43.0%
17-3 3.3% 45.4% 27.9% 17.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 24.3%
16-4 4.9% 28.5% 21.7% 6.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.5 8.7%
15-5 6.5% 19.2% 17.0% 2.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.3 2.8%
14-6 7.8% 14.0% 13.1% 0.9% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.7 1.0%
13-7 8.9% 9.9% 9.7% 0.2% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.0 0.2%
12-8 9.4% 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 8.7 0.0%
11-9 9.7% 5.9% 5.9% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.1
10-10 9.5% 4.1% 4.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.1
9-11 8.8% 3.0% 3.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.6
8-12 7.7% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 7.6
7-13 6.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.5
6-14 4.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 4.9
5-15 3.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.8
4-16 2.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.4
3-17 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 10.7% 8.5% 2.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.9 2.4 1.7 0.9 0.7 0.8 89.3 2.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.2 22.6 49.5 10.8 17.2
Lose Out 0.0%