Preseason Rankings
Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.2#20
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace54.0#362
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.8#60
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+9.3#6
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.5% 1.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 6.2% 6.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 13.0% 13.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 27.0% 27.1% 0.9%
Top 6 Seed 40.1% 40.2% 5.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 65.9% 66.0% 25.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 62.2% 62.3% 23.0%
Average Seed 5.6 5.6 8.7
.500 or above 84.5% 84.6% 40.6%
.500 or above in Conference 76.0% 76.2% 35.8%
Conference Champion 13.3% 13.3% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.8% 11.4%
First Four3.6% 3.6% 2.8%
First Round64.1% 64.2% 23.1%
Second Round46.2% 46.3% 9.9%
Sweet Sixteen25.1% 25.2% 2.0%
Elite Eight12.8% 12.9% 1.1%
Final Four6.3% 6.3% 0.9%
Championship Game3.0% 3.0% 0.0%
National Champion1.4% 1.4% 0.0%

Next Game: NC Central (Home) - 99.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 7
Quad 25 - 29 - 9
Quad 34 - 114 - 10
Quad 45 - 019 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 340   NC Central W 75-45 99.7%   
  Nov 11, 2022 260   Monmouth W 70-48 98%    
  Nov 14, 2022 132   Northern Iowa W 69-54 90%    
  Nov 18, 2022 4   Baylor L 60-64 36%    
  Nov 25, 2022 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 77-39 99.9%   
  Nov 29, 2022 15   @ Michigan L 59-63 38%    
  Dec 03, 2022 42   Florida St. W 65-59 70%    
  Dec 06, 2022 162   James Madison W 73-56 92%    
  Dec 17, 2022 5   Houston L 57-58 46%    
  Dec 20, 2022 32   @ Miami (FL) L 62-63 46%    
  Dec 28, 2022 300   Albany W 70-45 98%    
  Dec 31, 2022 97   @ Georgia Tech W 63-58 67%    
  Jan 03, 2023 109   @ Pittsburgh W 61-54 70%    
  Jan 07, 2023 52   Syracuse W 67-60 72%    
  Jan 10, 2023 2   North Carolina L 64-66 44%    
  Jan 14, 2023 42   @ Florida St. W 62-61 51%    
  Jan 18, 2023 34   Virginia Tech W 60-55 65%    
  Jan 21, 2023 67   @ Wake Forest W 66-63 59%    
  Jan 28, 2023 86   Boston College W 64-54 80%    
  Jan 30, 2023 52   @ Syracuse W 64-63 53%    
  Feb 04, 2023 34   @ Virginia Tech L 57-58 47%    
  Feb 07, 2023 69   North Carolina St. W 67-58 76%    
  Feb 11, 2023 7   Duke L 63-64 49%    
  Feb 15, 2023 73   @ Louisville W 62-59 59%    
  Feb 18, 2023 40   Notre Dame W 64-58 67%    
  Feb 22, 2023 86   @ Boston College W 61-57 63%    
  Feb 25, 2023 2   @ North Carolina L 61-69 27%    
  Feb 28, 2023 65   Clemson W 64-56 74%    
  Mar 04, 2023 73   Louisville W 65-56 76%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.5 3.6 3.3 2.0 0.7 13.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.7 3.9 2.1 0.5 0.0 12.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.3 3.5 1.0 0.1 11.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.1 2.8 0.7 0.1 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.9 2.5 0.5 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.6 2.4 0.5 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.9 2.7 0.6 0.0 7.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.5 0.7 0.0 6.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.1 1.1 0.1 4.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.9 3.0 4.2 5.5 6.9 8.2 9.4 9.8 10.1 9.8 9.0 7.6 5.8 3.8 2.0 0.7 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
19-1 98.5% 2.0    1.9 0.1
18-2 86.6% 3.3    2.5 0.7 0.0
17-3 61.6% 3.6    2.1 1.2 0.2 0.0
16-4 33.5% 2.5    1.0 1.2 0.3 0.0
15-5 12.0% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.3% 13.3 8.4 3.7 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.7% 100.0% 39.9% 60.1% 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.0% 100.0% 29.9% 70.1% 1.4 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.8% 100.0% 24.8% 75.2% 1.7 1.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 5.8% 100.0% 19.5% 80.5% 2.3 1.5 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 7.6% 99.9% 17.3% 82.6% 3.3 0.7 1.7 2.2 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 9.0% 99.5% 12.8% 86.7% 4.4 0.2 0.8 2.0 2.2 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
14-6 9.8% 97.8% 11.5% 86.3% 5.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 2.0 1.9 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 97.5%
13-7 10.1% 92.7% 9.2% 83.6% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.7 92.0%
12-8 9.8% 81.6% 6.5% 75.1% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.1 1.8 80.3%
11-9 9.4% 61.4% 5.9% 55.6% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.6 59.0%
10-10 8.2% 36.8% 5.3% 31.5% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.2 33.3%
9-11 6.9% 13.8% 3.8% 10.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 10.3%
8-12 5.5% 4.9% 3.4% 1.5% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.2 1.5%
7-13 4.2% 2.1% 2.0% 0.1% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 0.1%
6-14 3.0% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 3.0
5-15 1.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.9
4-16 1.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-17 0.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.7
2-18 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 65.9% 9.7% 56.2% 5.6 6.2 6.8 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.4 6.2 5.8 4.8 4.1 3.5 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 34.1 62.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 92.3 7.7