Preseason Rankings
Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.8#138
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace58.8#355
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#213
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#103
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.7% 9.8% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.3% 1.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.1 14.2
.500 or above 71.2% 77.1% 42.2%
.500 or above in Conference 60.3% 64.8% 38.0%
Conference Champion 8.8% 10.0% 2.5%
Last Place in Conference 4.4% 3.3% 9.7%
First Four0.9% 1.0% 0.8%
First Round8.3% 9.3% 3.0%
Second Round1.9% 2.3% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Home) - 83.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 34 - 56 - 10
Quad 412 - 217 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 261   Arkansas Little Rock W 69-59 83%    
  Nov 10, 2022 38   @ Oklahoma St. L 57-70 12%    
  Nov 13, 2022 339   @ Southern Indiana W 69-58 84%    
  Nov 17, 2022 276   Tennessee St. W 70-59 83%    
  Nov 22, 2022 105   UNLV L 61-64 40%    
  Nov 30, 2022 313   @ Evansville W 64-56 75%    
  Dec 03, 2022 45   @ Saint Louis L 60-72 16%    
  Dec 07, 2022 161   Indiana St. W 67-63 64%    
  Dec 10, 2022 350   Alcorn St. W 73-54 94%    
  Dec 16, 2022 362   Chicago St. W 76-49 98%    
  Dec 19, 2022 341   Alabama A&M W 68-51 92%    
  Dec 21, 2022 281   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 73-67 68%    
  Dec 29, 2022 114   @ Murray St. L 60-65 34%    
  Jan 01, 2023 115   Belmont W 67-66 54%    
  Jan 04, 2023 74   Drake L 62-65 39%    
  Jan 07, 2023 132   @ Northern Iowa L 62-66 39%    
  Jan 11, 2023 161   @ Indiana St. L 64-66 45%    
  Jan 14, 2023 180   Illinois St. W 68-63 66%    
  Jan 17, 2023 313   Evansville W 67-53 87%    
  Jan 21, 2023 131   @ Missouri St. L 63-67 38%    
  Jan 24, 2023 114   Murray St. W 63-62 53%    
  Jan 29, 2023 180   @ Illinois St. L 65-66 47%    
  Feb 01, 2023 117   @ Bradley L 61-66 36%    
  Feb 05, 2023 131   Missouri St. W 66-64 57%    
  Feb 08, 2023 247   Illinois-Chicago W 70-61 75%    
  Feb 11, 2023 74   @ Drake L 59-68 23%    
  Feb 14, 2023 212   @ Valparaiso W 63-62 52%    
  Feb 19, 2023 117   Bradley W 64-63 53%    
  Feb 22, 2023 132   Northern Iowa W 65-63 58%    
  Feb 26, 2023 247   @ Illinois-Chicago W 67-64 58%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.0 2.4 1.5 0.7 0.3 8.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.7 3.2 2.0 0.6 0.1 9.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.5 3.3 1.3 0.2 10.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.8 3.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.2 3.0 0.7 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.1 2.9 0.6 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.8 2.7 0.6 0.0 9.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.7 2.6 0.5 0.0 9.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.9 3.1 2.2 0.4 0.0 8.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 6.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.0 2.6 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 2.8 4.1 5.4 7.0 8.4 9.0 9.6 9.8 9.2 8.4 7.3 6.0 4.3 3.0 1.6 0.7 0.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
18-2 93.9% 1.5    1.3 0.2 0.0
17-3 79.4% 2.4    1.7 0.6 0.0 0.0
16-4 47.2% 2.0    1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 23.3% 1.4    0.5 0.6 0.2 0.1
14-6 5.3% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.8% 8.8 5.5 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 88.6% 50.6% 38.0% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 76.9%
19-1 0.7% 76.5% 45.7% 30.8% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 56.7%
18-2 1.6% 54.9% 32.9% 22.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 32.8%
17-3 3.0% 37.5% 28.2% 9.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.9 12.9%
16-4 4.3% 24.4% 20.6% 3.8% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.3 4.8%
15-5 6.0% 16.4% 15.7% 0.7% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.0 0.9%
14-6 7.3% 12.8% 12.6% 0.1% 12.9 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 6.4 0.2%
13-7 8.4% 9.1% 9.1% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.6
12-8 9.2% 6.8% 6.8% 13.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.6
11-9 9.8% 4.9% 4.9% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.3
10-10 9.6% 4.1% 4.1% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.2
9-11 9.0% 2.6% 2.6% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.8
8-12 8.4% 2.0% 2.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 8.3
7-13 7.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.9
6-14 5.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 5.4
5-15 4.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.0
4-16 2.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.7
3-17 1.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.7
2-18 0.8% 0.8
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 8.7% 7.5% 1.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.2 1.9 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.6 91.3 1.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.8 21.0 25.0 27.0 12.0 10.0 5.0