Preseason Rankings
Oklahoma St.
Big 12
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.9#38
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.9#117
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#64
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.1#22
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.2% 3.3% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 7.4% 7.6% 0.6%
Top 4 Seed 17.3% 17.9% 2.4%
Top 6 Seed 28.1% 29.0% 5.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 49.1% 50.4% 17.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 45.4% 46.7% 15.0%
Average Seed 6.1 6.0 8.2
.500 or above 70.8% 72.4% 31.0%
.500 or above in Conference 44.0% 45.1% 17.3%
Conference Champion 5.7% 5.9% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 13.8% 12.9% 34.7%
First Four3.9% 3.9% 3.3%
First Round47.3% 48.6% 15.7%
Second Round31.9% 32.8% 9.3%
Sweet Sixteen16.0% 16.5% 3.3%
Elite Eight7.4% 7.6% 1.0%
Final Four3.4% 3.5% 0.6%
Championship Game1.5% 1.6% 0.1%
National Champion0.6% 0.7% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Home) - 96.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 9
Quad 24 - 38 - 12
Quad 34 - 113 - 13
Quad 45 - 017 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 248   Texas Arlington W 77-58 96%    
  Nov 10, 2022 138   Southern Illinois W 70-57 88%    
  Nov 13, 2022 214   @ Oakland W 78-67 83%    
  Nov 18, 2022 92   Central Florida W 74-68 69%    
  Nov 25, 2022 136   Tulsa W 76-63 86%    
  Nov 27, 2022 285   Prairie View W 85-63 97%    
  Dec 01, 2022 31   @ Connecticut L 67-71 38%    
  Dec 06, 2022 175   Sam Houston St. W 73-58 89%    
  Dec 11, 2022 34   Virginia Tech L 66-67 49%    
  Dec 17, 2022 94   @ Wichita St. W 71-68 59%    
  Dec 20, 2022 344   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 86-58 99%    
  Dec 31, 2022 6   @ Kansas L 69-78 23%    
  Jan 02, 2023 56   West Virginia W 74-69 66%    
  Jan 07, 2023 9   Texas L 65-67 43%    
  Jan 10, 2023 68   @ Kansas St. W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 14, 2023 4   @ Baylor L 67-77 22%    
  Jan 18, 2023 33   Oklahoma W 70-67 59%    
  Jan 21, 2023 51   Iowa St. W 70-65 65%    
  Jan 24, 2023 9   @ Texas L 62-70 26%    
  Jan 28, 2023 58   Mississippi W 71-66 66%    
  Feb 01, 2023 33   @ Oklahoma L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 04, 2023 19   TCU W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 08, 2023 17   Texas Tech W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 11, 2023 51   @ Iowa St. L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 14, 2023 6   Kansas L 72-75 41%    
  Feb 18, 2023 19   @ TCU L 66-71 33%    
  Feb 20, 2023 56   @ West Virginia L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 25, 2023 68   Kansas St. W 73-66 69%    
  Feb 27, 2023 4   Baylor L 70-74 39%    
  Mar 04, 2023 17   @ Texas Tech L 64-70 32%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 5.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 2.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 7.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.3 2.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 9.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.2 3.1 0.8 0.1 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.5 2.8 0.7 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.2 5.1 2.7 0.5 0.0 12.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.5 4.9 2.4 0.3 0.0 12.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.0 4.2 2.0 0.2 0.0 12.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.1 3.9 3.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 11.1 9th
10th 0.4 1.5 2.4 2.5 1.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 8.9 10th
Total 0.4 1.5 3.0 4.9 6.9 8.7 9.4 10.6 10.5 9.7 9.0 7.7 6.1 4.7 3.2 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 92.9% 1.0    0.8 0.1
15-3 74.5% 1.5    1.1 0.4 0.0
14-4 46.0% 1.5    0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 19.1% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.7% 5.7 3.4 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 34.0% 66.0% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 30.9% 69.1% 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.0% 100.0% 28.9% 71.1% 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.0% 100.0% 20.4% 79.6% 1.8 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.2% 100.0% 17.6% 82.4% 2.5 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 4.7% 99.9% 15.0% 84.9% 3.3 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 6.1% 99.3% 12.4% 86.9% 4.4 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
11-7 7.7% 97.5% 9.6% 87.9% 5.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 97.2%
10-8 9.0% 91.2% 7.4% 83.9% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.8 90.5%
9-9 9.7% 76.6% 6.6% 69.9% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.3 74.9%
8-10 10.5% 47.6% 5.4% 42.2% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5 44.6%
7-11 10.6% 21.2% 4.5% 16.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.4 17.5%
6-12 9.4% 7.0% 2.8% 4.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.8 4.3%
5-13 8.7% 2.5% 2.1% 0.4% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.5 0.4%
4-14 6.9% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.8 0.0%
3-15 4.9% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 4.8
2-16 3.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 2.9
1-17 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.5
0-18 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
Total 100% 49.1% 6.7% 42.4% 6.1 3.2 4.2 5.0 5.0 5.3 5.5 4.9 4.3 3.6 3.1 3.1 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 50.9 45.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 74.6 25.4