Preseason Rankings
Toledo
Mid-American
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.5#108
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.7#85
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#70
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#163
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.6% 2.0% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.9% 25.6% 11.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.9% 4.8% 0.6%
Average Seed 11.6 11.4 13.4
.500 or above 84.3% 89.4% 63.2%
.500 or above in Conference 87.1% 90.3% 73.7%
Conference Champion 28.2% 31.7% 13.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.5% 2.3%
First Four1.9% 2.0% 1.6%
First Round22.0% 24.6% 11.0%
Second Round5.9% 7.0% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.8% 2.2% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.7% 0.0%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Home) - 80.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 32 - 4
Quad 35 - 47 - 8
Quad 411 - 218 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 212   Valparaiso W 77-68 81%    
  Nov 11, 2022 60   UAB L 76-81 34%    
  Nov 16, 2022 214   Oakland W 81-72 79%    
  Nov 21, 2022 289   UMKC W 79-67 85%    
  Nov 30, 2022 88   Richmond W 74-73 53%    
  Dec 03, 2022 123   @ George Mason L 71-73 44%    
  Dec 06, 2022 132   @ Northern Iowa L 74-75 47%    
  Dec 10, 2022 290   Canisius W 83-68 90%    
  Dec 17, 2022 159   @ Marshall W 83-82 54%    
  Dec 20, 2022 104   @ Vermont L 71-74 39%    
  Jan 03, 2023 200   Ball St. W 84-75 76%    
  Jan 06, 2023 262   Western Michigan W 78-65 85%    
  Jan 10, 2023 120   @ Kent St. L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 14, 2023 294   @ Northern Illinois W 78-69 78%    
  Jan 17, 2023 144   Ohio W 78-72 68%    
  Jan 21, 2023 133   @ Buffalo L 80-81 48%    
  Jan 24, 2023 226   Eastern Michigan W 83-73 80%    
  Jan 28, 2023 234   Bowling Green W 89-78 80%    
  Jan 31, 2023 269   @ Miami (OH) W 80-73 72%    
  Feb 04, 2023 263   Central Michigan W 82-69 85%    
  Feb 07, 2023 119   @ Akron L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 11, 2023 226   @ Eastern Michigan W 80-76 64%    
  Feb 14, 2023 269   Miami (OH) W 83-70 85%    
  Feb 18, 2023 234   @ Bowling Green W 86-81 64%    
  Feb 21, 2023 119   Akron W 71-67 62%    
  Feb 25, 2023 133   Buffalo W 83-78 66%    
  Feb 28, 2023 263   @ Central Michigan W 79-72 71%    
  Mar 03, 2023 200   @ Ball St. W 81-78 59%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.4 7.1 7.6 5.4 2.2 28.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.5 6.3 3.5 1.0 0.1 19.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.4 4.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.3 2.1 4.5 3.2 0.7 0.0 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.3 4.8 6.7 8.0 9.9 11.6 11.8 12.1 10.7 8.6 5.4 2.2 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.2    2.2
17-1 98.9% 5.4    5.0 0.3
16-2 88.7% 7.6    6.0 1.6 0.0
15-3 66.2% 7.1    4.3 2.4 0.3 0.0
14-4 36.1% 4.4    1.8 1.9 0.7 0.0 0.0
13-5 10.8% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 28.2% 28.2 19.6 6.8 1.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.2% 86.7% 61.7% 24.9% 6.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 65.2%
17-1 5.4% 69.5% 48.9% 20.6% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.7 40.3%
16-2 8.6% 49.3% 39.3% 10.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.4 16.5%
15-3 10.7% 35.0% 30.9% 4.1% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.0 5.9%
14-4 12.1% 24.5% 23.6% 0.9% 12.6 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 9.2 1.2%
13-5 11.8% 18.9% 18.6% 0.3% 13.1 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 9.6 0.4%
12-6 11.6% 14.1% 14.1% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 9.9 0.0%
11-7 9.9% 11.1% 11.0% 0.0% 14.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 8.8 0.0%
10-8 8.0% 7.4% 7.4% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 7.4
9-9 6.7% 5.5% 5.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 6.3
8-10 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 15.8 0.0 0.2 4.6
7-11 3.3% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.2
6-12 2.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.3
5-13 1.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.3
4-14 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-15 0.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-16 0.1% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 22.9% 19.8% 3.1% 11.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.4 3.8 5.6 4.2 2.5 1.3 0.9 77.1 3.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 98.8% 3.5 11.1 15.3 23.7 23.5 17.1 4.4 2.4 0.6 0.6