Preseason Rankings
Marshall
Sun Belt
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#159
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace79.6#6
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#133
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#219
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.1% 12.9% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.9% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.1 12.9 14.3
.500 or above 72.5% 80.6% 48.2%
.500 or above in Conference 66.6% 72.8% 47.9%
Conference Champion 12.5% 15.1% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 4.0% 2.8% 7.8%
First Four1.0% 1.0% 1.1%
First Round10.6% 12.4% 5.1%
Second Round1.6% 2.0% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Queens (Away) - 75.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 65 - 9
Quad 413 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 321   @ Queens W 83-76 75%    
  Nov 14, 2022 305   Tennessee Tech W 88-76 86%    
  Nov 17, 2022 269   @ Miami (OH) W 82-79 61%    
  Nov 19, 2022 336   Coppin St. W 91-76 90%    
  Nov 21, 2022 362   Chicago St. W 89-64 98%    
  Nov 26, 2022 187   Morehead St. W 75-71 63%    
  Nov 30, 2022 119   Akron L 71-72 49%    
  Dec 03, 2022 144   Ohio W 79-77 56%    
  Dec 08, 2022 178   @ Duquesne L 76-78 43%    
  Dec 10, 2022 277   @ Robert Morris W 81-77 62%    
  Dec 13, 2022 139   @ UNC Greensboro L 69-73 36%    
  Dec 17, 2022 108   Toledo L 82-83 46%    
  Dec 29, 2022 183   Appalachian St. W 75-71 62%    
  Dec 31, 2022 162   James Madison W 84-81 60%    
  Jan 05, 2023 251   @ Georgia Southern W 76-75 54%    
  Jan 07, 2023 184   Coastal Carolina W 79-75 62%    
  Jan 12, 2023 299   Southern Miss W 84-72 82%    
  Jan 14, 2023 186   Old Dominion W 75-71 62%    
  Jan 19, 2023 168   @ Texas St. L 71-74 42%    
  Jan 21, 2023 230   @ Arkansas St. W 79-78 51%    
  Jan 26, 2023 259   Louisiana Monroe W 85-76 75%    
  Jan 28, 2023 169   Georgia St. W 79-76 61%    
  Feb 02, 2023 183   @ Appalachian St. L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 04, 2023 158   @ Louisiana L 71-74 40%    
  Feb 09, 2023 184   @ Coastal Carolina L 76-78 43%    
  Feb 11, 2023 169   @ Georgia St. L 76-79 41%    
  Feb 16, 2023 251   Georgia Southern W 79-72 72%    
  Feb 18, 2023 235   Troy W 80-73 69%    
  Feb 22, 2023 162   @ James Madison L 81-84 41%    
  Feb 24, 2023 186   @ Old Dominion L 72-74 44%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.2 2.7 3.4 2.9 1.6 0.5 12.5 1st
2nd 0.2 1.7 3.6 3.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 10.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.0 3.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.9 3.2 0.7 0.1 9.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.4 3.6 0.9 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.5 3.8 1.2 0.1 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.8 1.6 0.1 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.5 2.8 0.6 0.0 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.8 0.9 0.0 5.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.8 1.1 0.1 4.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.1 3.6 13th
14th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.2 14th
Total 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.1 4.6 6.0 7.4 9.2 9.7 10.5 10.6 10.0 8.6 6.9 4.9 3.2 1.6 0.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 99.0% 1.6    1.5 0.1
16-2 90.1% 2.9    2.3 0.6 0.0
15-3 69.3% 3.4    2.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 39.3% 2.7    1.0 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.0
13-5 13.5% 1.2    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.5% 12.5 7.7 3.5 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 77.2% 51.6% 25.6% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 52.8%
17-1 1.6% 56.7% 44.7% 12.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 21.6%
16-2 3.2% 41.3% 36.3% 5.0% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.9 7.9%
15-3 4.9% 29.1% 27.6% 1.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.5 2.1%
14-4 6.9% 22.7% 22.5% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.3 0.2%
13-5 8.6% 16.8% 16.8% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 7.1
12-6 10.0% 12.7% 12.7% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 8.8
11-7 10.6% 8.8% 8.8% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 9.7
10-8 10.5% 6.4% 6.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 9.8
9-9 9.7% 4.5% 4.5% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 9.3
8-10 9.2% 3.9% 3.9% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.8
7-11 7.4% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 7.3
6-12 6.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.9
5-13 4.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 4.5
4-14 3.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.1
3-15 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.7
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 11.1% 10.5% 0.6% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.1 2.6 2.1 1.5 1.1 88.9 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 90.5% 4.9 7.9 13.0 22.8 16.5 16.1 4.7 4.7 3.2 1.6