Preseason Rankings
George Mason
Atlantic 10
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.4#123
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.0#295
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#141
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#122
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 2.5% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 5.4% 0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.4% 25.1% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.8% 19.1% 3.4%
Average Seed 10.3 8.9 10.9
.500 or above 57.5% 87.3% 54.3%
.500 or above in Conference 47.9% 74.2% 45.1%
Conference Champion 3.4% 9.4% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 6.9% 1.7% 7.4%
First Four2.0% 4.5% 1.7%
First Round7.4% 22.9% 5.7%
Second Round2.8% 11.0% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 3.7% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.3% 1.1% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Auburn (Away) - 9.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 5
Quad 22 - 42 - 8
Quad 35 - 47 - 12
Quad 48 - 115 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 21   @ Auburn L 65-79 10%    
  Nov 11, 2022 152   Longwood W 71-65 69%    
  Nov 13, 2022 312   American W 73-57 92%    
  Nov 18, 2022 86   Boston College L 65-68 39%    
  Nov 26, 2022 321   Queens W 78-62 92%    
  Nov 30, 2022 141   Hofstra W 75-70 65%    
  Dec 03, 2022 108   Toledo W 73-71 56%    
  Dec 06, 2022 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 79-51 99%    
  Dec 17, 2022 82   Tulane L 69-73 38%    
  Dec 21, 2022 186   @ Old Dominion W 65-64 53%    
  Dec 23, 2022 336   Coppin St. W 82-64 93%    
  Dec 31, 2022 88   Richmond L 67-68 49%    
  Jan 04, 2023 103   @ St. Bonaventure L 65-69 36%    
  Jan 07, 2023 54   Loyola Chicago L 63-66 39%    
  Jan 11, 2023 45   @ Saint Louis L 65-75 20%    
  Jan 14, 2023 81   Davidson L 67-68 48%    
  Jan 16, 2023 196   George Washington W 74-67 73%    
  Jan 21, 2023 112   @ Rhode Island L 66-69 40%    
  Jan 25, 2023 75   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 63-71 27%    
  Jan 29, 2023 149   Saint Joseph's W 71-66 67%    
  Feb 01, 2023 124   Massachusetts W 76-73 59%    
  Feb 04, 2023 54   @ Loyola Chicago L 60-69 23%    
  Feb 08, 2023 178   @ Duquesne W 68-67 52%    
  Feb 11, 2023 112   Rhode Island W 69-66 58%    
  Feb 15, 2023 196   @ George Washington W 71-70 55%    
  Feb 18, 2023 182   La Salle W 72-65 70%    
  Feb 25, 2023 28   @ Dayton L 58-70 17%    
  Mar 01, 2023 202   Fordham W 69-61 73%    
  Mar 04, 2023 88   @ Richmond L 65-71 32%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 3.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.1 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 6.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.5 1.2 0.1 7.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 3.8 1.7 0.1 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 3.9 2.6 0.3 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.2 3.5 0.7 0.0 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.3 1.3 0.1 8.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.7 4.3 2.1 0.1 8.3 10th
11th 0.1 1.1 3.9 2.7 0.4 0.0 8.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.9 3.1 2.8 0.6 0.0 7.5 12th
13th 0.1 0.8 2.5 2.6 0.8 0.0 6.7 13th
14th 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.0 0.7 0.0 5.5 14th
15th 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 3.8 15th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.2 3.8 5.8 7.6 9.6 10.8 11.1 10.9 10.0 8.6 6.8 4.9 3.4 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 97.5% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 83.8% 0.9    0.6 0.2 0.0
15-3 55.9% 1.0    0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 24.4% 0.8    0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 5.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 25.3% 74.7% 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.3% 95.6% 25.9% 69.7% 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.1%
16-2 1.0% 88.0% 16.9% 71.1% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 85.6%
15-3 1.9% 70.7% 16.5% 54.2% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 64.9%
14-4 3.4% 45.2% 11.5% 33.7% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.9 38.0%
13-5 4.9% 25.4% 7.5% 17.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.7 19.3%
12-6 6.8% 14.2% 7.5% 6.7% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.9 7.2%
11-7 8.6% 6.9% 5.6% 1.3% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.0 1.4%
10-8 10.0% 3.9% 3.8% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.6 0.2%
9-9 10.9% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.6 0.0%
8-10 11.1% 2.3% 2.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.9
7-11 10.8% 1.6% 1.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.6
6-12 9.6% 1.1% 1.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.5
5-13 7.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 7.6
4-14 5.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 5.8
3-15 3.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.8
2-16 2.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.1
1-17 0.9% 0.9
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 8.4% 3.7% 4.6% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.1 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 91.7 4.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.1 35.1 38.6 17.5 8.8