Preseason Rankings
USC
Pac-12
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.9#37
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.3#234
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#42
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#34
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.7% 2.8% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 6.1% 6.4% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 14.9% 15.8% 1.9%
Top 6 Seed 24.5% 25.8% 3.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 53.2% 55.4% 21.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 47.8% 49.9% 17.7%
Average Seed 6.8 6.7 8.9
.500 or above 84.1% 86.2% 52.1%
.500 or above in Conference 74.2% 76.1% 46.4%
Conference Champion 12.0% 12.6% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.5% 7.1%
First Four4.8% 4.8% 3.5%
First Round51.0% 53.1% 19.6%
Second Round32.8% 34.3% 9.1%
Sweet Sixteen15.5% 16.3% 3.0%
Elite Eight7.1% 7.5% 1.1%
Final Four3.2% 3.3% 0.5%
Championship Game1.3% 1.4% 0.2%
National Champion0.5% 0.6% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Gulf Coast (Home) - 93.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 6
Quad 24 - 37 - 8
Quad 36 - 113 - 10
Quad 46 - 019 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 203   Florida Gulf Coast W 83-67 94%    
  Nov 10, 2022 354   Alabama St. W 85-54 99.8%   
  Nov 15, 2022 104   Vermont W 72-62 81%    
  Nov 18, 2022 267   Mount St. Mary's W 74-53 96%    
  Nov 23, 2022 55   BYU W 72-70 58%    
  Nov 30, 2022 128   @ California W 67-61 69%    
  Dec 04, 2022 204   Oregon St. W 79-63 91%    
  Dec 07, 2022 191   Cal St. Fullerton W 76-60 90%    
  Dec 14, 2022 188   Long Beach St. W 83-67 90%    
  Dec 18, 2022 21   Auburn W 73-72 53%    
  Dec 21, 2022 78   Colorado St. W 71-67 64%    
  Dec 30, 2022 89   @ Washington W 73-71 58%    
  Jan 01, 2023 71   @ Washington St. W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 05, 2023 8   @ UCLA L 65-73 26%    
  Jan 12, 2023 59   Colorado W 72-66 67%    
  Jan 14, 2023 84   Utah W 73-65 74%    
  Jan 19, 2023 12   @ Arizona L 73-80 29%    
  Jan 21, 2023 61   @ Arizona St. L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 26, 2023 8   UCLA L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 02, 2023 71   Washington St. W 71-64 70%    
  Feb 04, 2023 89   Washington W 76-68 75%    
  Feb 09, 2023 26   @ Oregon L 70-74 37%    
  Feb 11, 2023 204   @ Oregon St. W 76-66 79%    
  Feb 16, 2023 128   California W 70-58 82%    
  Feb 18, 2023 57   Stanford W 70-65 66%    
  Feb 23, 2023 59   @ Colorado L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 25, 2023 84   @ Utah W 70-68 56%    
  Mar 02, 2023 12   Arizona L 76-77 47%    
  Mar 04, 2023 61   Arizona St. W 71-65 68%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.8 3.2 2.7 1.4 0.4 12.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.8 4.4 3.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 13.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.8 4.6 2.7 0.7 0.1 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.3 4.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.3 3.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.7 3.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.3 2.4 0.6 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 2.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.2 3.4 4.6 5.8 7.5 8.8 10.0 10.2 10.2 9.8 8.5 7.2 4.8 3.0 1.4 0.4 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 99.2% 1.4    1.3 0.1
18-2 90.4% 2.7    2.2 0.4 0.0
17-3 66.5% 3.2    2.1 1.0 0.1
16-4 38.8% 2.8    1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0
15-5 13.4% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.6% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.0% 12.0 7.7 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 100.0% 45.8% 54.2% 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.4% 100.0% 33.9% 66.1% 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.0% 100.0% 28.1% 71.9% 2.2 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.8% 100.0% 22.3% 77.7% 3.2 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 7.2% 99.0% 20.2% 78.8% 4.6 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.7%
15-5 8.5% 96.2% 15.7% 80.5% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 95.5%
14-6 9.8% 88.7% 12.9% 75.8% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.1 87.1%
13-7 10.2% 77.5% 10.3% 67.1% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.3 74.9%
12-8 10.2% 56.7% 8.5% 48.2% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.4 52.7%
11-9 10.0% 34.4% 6.4% 28.0% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 29.9%
10-10 8.8% 17.6% 5.2% 12.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.2 13.1%
9-11 7.5% 7.4% 4.4% 3.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.9 3.1%
8-12 5.8% 3.9% 3.7% 0.2% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.6 0.2%
7-13 4.6% 2.8% 2.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.5
6-14 3.4% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 3.3
5-15 2.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 2.1
4-16 1.2% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-17 0.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.7
2-18 0.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 53.2% 10.4% 42.8% 6.8 2.7 3.4 4.1 4.8 4.8 4.7 5.0 5.3 5.8 5.8 4.8 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 46.8 47.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.2 76.4 22.8 0.8