Preseason Rankings
Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#203
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.4#44
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#143
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#269
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.4% 20.3% 8.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 1.5% 0.1%
Average Seed 14.0 12.8 14.1
.500 or above 59.1% 89.5% 57.1%
.500 or above in Conference 73.6% 92.4% 72.3%
Conference Champion 11.4% 26.0% 10.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 0.2% 2.4%
First Four1.3% 1.1% 1.3%
First Round8.7% 19.6% 8.0%
Second Round0.9% 3.5% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.9% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: USC (Away) - 6.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 53 - 9
Quad 411 - 415 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 37   @ USC L 67-83 6%    
  Nov 09, 2022 176   @ San Diego L 71-75 36%    
  Nov 16, 2022 10   @ Tennessee L 65-86 3%    
  Nov 21, 2022 195   Northern Kentucky L 72-73 48%    
  Nov 30, 2022 251   @ Georgia Southern L 73-74 48%    
  Dec 04, 2022 224   Florida International W 78-74 64%    
  Dec 07, 2022 125   @ Florida Atlantic L 73-81 27%    
  Dec 10, 2022 198   Mercer W 76-73 59%    
  Dec 16, 2022 103   @ St. Bonaventure L 70-79 23%    
  Dec 21, 2022 290   Canisius W 82-73 77%    
  Dec 31, 2022 160   Jacksonville W 69-68 54%    
  Jan 02, 2023 334   @ Central Arkansas W 87-80 71%    
  Jan 05, 2023 254   @ Austin Peay W 73-72 50%    
  Jan 07, 2023 243   North Florida W 81-76 66%    
  Jan 12, 2023 219   @ Eastern Kentucky L 81-83 43%    
  Jan 14, 2023 250   @ Bellarmine L 71-72 49%    
  Jan 19, 2023 209   Jacksonville St. W 76-73 60%    
  Jan 21, 2023 242   Kennesaw St. W 79-74 65%    
  Jan 26, 2023 321   @ Queens W 81-76 67%    
  Jan 28, 2023 100   @ Liberty L 68-78 22%    
  Feb 02, 2023 334   Central Arkansas W 90-77 85%    
  Feb 04, 2023 309   North Alabama W 82-71 80%    
  Feb 09, 2023 243   @ North Florida L 78-79 47%    
  Feb 11, 2023 160   @ Jacksonville L 66-71 35%    
  Feb 15, 2023 292   @ Stetson W 76-73 61%    
  Feb 18, 2023 292   Stetson W 79-70 77%    
  Feb 22, 2023 225   Lipscomb W 83-79 64%    
  Feb 24, 2023 254   Austin Peay W 75-69 68%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.9 3.2 3.2 1.9 0.6 11.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 3.4 4.5 2.8 0.8 0.1 12.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 3.9 4.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 11.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 3.8 4.3 1.5 0.2 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.2 4.3 1.4 0.1 9.6 5th
6th 0.3 2.4 4.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.7 3.8 1.9 0.2 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 6.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 5.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.2 0.6 0.0 4.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.7 0.7 0.1 4.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.1 3.3 4.8 6.3 8.0 9.6 10.5 11.2 10.9 10.1 8.5 6.2 3.9 1.9 0.6 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 96.9% 1.9    1.6 0.2
16-2 80.4% 3.2    2.3 0.8 0.1
15-3 50.6% 3.2    1.5 1.3 0.3 0.0
14-4 22.6% 1.9    0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 5.5% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.4% 11.4 6.8 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 60.1% 53.2% 7.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14.9%
17-1 1.9% 45.1% 42.1% 3.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 5.1%
16-2 3.9% 29.5% 28.8% 0.7% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.8 1.0%
15-3 6.2% 24.1% 24.0% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.7 0.2%
14-4 8.5% 17.3% 17.3% 14.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 7.0
13-5 10.1% 12.6% 12.6% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 8.9
12-6 10.9% 8.5% 8.5% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 10.0
11-7 11.2% 6.7% 6.7% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 10.5
10-8 10.5% 4.3% 4.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 10.1
9-9 9.6% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 9.3
8-10 8.0% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.8
7-11 6.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.3
6-12 4.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 4.7
5-13 3.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.3
4-14 2.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.1
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.4% 9.3% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 90.6 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%