Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.8#214
Expected Predictive Rating-2.2#216
Pace77.0#30
Improvement+0.0#134

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#275
First Shot-2.0#244
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#262
Layup/Dunks-2.5#269
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#210
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#148
Freethrows+0.3#161
Improvement+0.1#89

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#165
First Shot-1.2#216
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#70
Layups/Dunks+3.6#63
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#7
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#202
Freethrows-7.7#362
Improvement-0.1#215
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.4% 43.3% 29.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.1 15.6
.500 or above 77.0% 91.4% 73.6%
.500 or above in Conference 97.1% 99.0% 96.7%
Conference Champion 42.6% 51.9% 40.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four11.0% 8.2% 11.6%
First Round26.9% 39.6% 24.0%
Second Round0.8% 1.5% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Tech (Away) - 18.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 31 - 21 - 8
Quad 415 - 516 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 78   @ UNLV L 56-66 12%     0 - 1 +0.0 -12.9 +13.8
  Nov 11, 2022 6   @ Arizona L 78-95 2%     0 - 2 +4.4 -2.6 +9.9
  Nov 16, 2022 32   @ St. Mary's L 54-72 5%     0 - 3 -2.5 -2.2 -2.1
  Nov 18, 2022 231   @ California W 74-66 42%     1 - 3 +7.3 +8.5 -0.5
  Nov 25, 2022 295   Loyola Maryland W 76-58 67%     2 - 3 +10.7 -5.9 +15.0
  Nov 26, 2022 289   Nebraska Omaha L 78-88 65%     2 - 4 -16.8 -6.4 -9.5
  Dec 02, 2022 119   @ Louisiana Tech L 69-78 19%    
  Dec 13, 2022 27   @ Xavier L 69-88 4%    
  Dec 16, 2022 139   @ Youngstown St. L 74-82 23%    
  Dec 18, 2022 45   @ UAB L 74-90 7%    
  Dec 21, 2022 273   @ SE Louisiana L 77-78 50%    
  Jan 02, 2023 252   @ Texas Southern L 70-71 45%    
  Jan 04, 2023 259   @ Prairie View L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 07, 2023 360   Florida A&M W 76-59 94%    
  Jan 09, 2023 352   Bethune-Cookman W 78-63 90%    
  Jan 14, 2023 242   Grambling St. W 73-69 65%    
  Jan 21, 2023 339   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 76-70 71%    
  Jan 23, 2023 363   @ Mississippi Valley W 78-65 88%    
  Jan 28, 2023 288   Alcorn St. W 75-68 73%    
  Jan 30, 2023 308   Jackson St. W 78-69 78%    
  Feb 04, 2023 344   @ Alabama A&M W 80-73 73%    
  Feb 06, 2023 355   @ Alabama St. W 77-68 79%    
  Feb 11, 2023 259   Prairie View W 75-70 68%    
  Feb 13, 2023 252   Texas Southern W 73-68 66%    
  Feb 18, 2023 242   Grambling St. W 71-70 55%    
  Feb 25, 2023 352   Bethune-Cookman W 78-63 90%    
  Feb 27, 2023 360   @ Florida A&M W 73-62 84%    
  Mar 02, 2023 355   Alabama St. W 80-65 91%    
  Mar 04, 2023 344   Alabama A&M W 83-70 87%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.3 8.1 12.5 11.4 6.2 1.9 42.6 1st
2nd 0.2 2.5 7.4 7.9 3.0 0.4 21.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 5.8 4.8 1.1 0.1 14.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.9 3.3 0.6 0.0 9.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.3 2.2 0.5 0.0 5.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.7 3.1 5.3 8.8 12.3 15.0 17.2 15.5 11.7 6.2 1.9 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.9    1.9
17-1 100.0% 6.2    6.1 0.1
16-2 96.7% 11.4    9.9 1.5 0.0
15-3 80.6% 12.5    8.3 3.8 0.4 0.0
14-4 47.3% 8.1    3.2 3.7 1.2 0.1
13-5 15.0% 2.3    0.4 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 42.6% 42.6 29.8 10.0 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.9% 76.9% 76.9% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.4
17-1 6.2% 66.0% 66.0% 14.8 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.0 0.8 2.1
16-2 11.7% 56.0% 56.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.9 2.7 5.2
15-3 15.5% 44.4% 44.4% 15.5 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.1 8.6
14-4 17.2% 33.9% 33.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.5 11.4
13-5 15.0% 24.9% 24.9% 15.9 0.0 0.3 3.4 11.3
12-6 12.3% 17.0% 17.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.0 10.2
11-7 8.8% 11.3% 11.3% 16.0 1.0 7.8
10-8 5.3% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 0.4 4.8
9-9 3.1% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.2 2.9
8-10 1.7% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 1.7
7-11 0.6% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.6
6-12 0.3% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.1% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 32.4% 32.4% 0.0% 15.5 0.1 0.5 3.3 9.3 19.3 67.6 0.0%