Youngstown St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#147
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#180
Pace70.4#133
Improvement-0.1#264

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#76
First Shot+4.0#70
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#192
Layup/Dunks+5.9#23
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#203
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#195
Freethrows-0.6#210
Improvement-0.2#348

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#246
First Shot-2.4#244
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#188
Layups/Dunks-1.5#245
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#333
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#144
Freethrows+1.0#139
Improvement+0.1#62
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.6% 34.5% 23.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 95.5% 98.6% 92.6%
.500 or above in Conference 94.2% 98.2% 90.6%
Conference Champion 30.5% 43.0% 19.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.6% 1.3% 2.0%
First Round28.0% 34.0% 22.6%
Second Round2.3% 3.0% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wright St. (Away) - 47.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 33 - 43 - 6
Quad 416 - 320 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 293   @ Canisius W 92-81 70%     1 - 0 +6.9 +5.3 +0.3
  Nov 09, 2022 329   Tennessee Martin W 90-72 92%     2 - 0 +3.9 +3.4 -0.4
  Nov 13, 2022 78   @ Notre Dame L 81-88 21%     2 - 1 +2.9 +9.7 -6.8
  Nov 19, 2022 285   UC San Diego W 73-54 77%     3 - 1 +12.7 +2.7 +11.6
  Nov 20, 2022 167   @ Navy L 67-80 44%     3 - 2 -10.0 +0.6 -11.6
  Nov 26, 2022 301   @ Western Illinois W 88-64 72%     4 - 2 +19.3 +10.7 +8.5
  Dec 01, 2022 222   @ Northern Kentucky L 73-77 2OT 57%     4 - 3 0 - 1 -4.2 -8.9 +5.2
  Dec 04, 2022 186   @ Wright St. L 76-77 48%    
  Dec 11, 2022 152   Ohio W 77-73 63%    
  Dec 16, 2022 215   Southern W 80-73 74%    
  Dec 21, 2022 243   @ Central Michigan W 79-76 60%    
  Dec 29, 2022 191   Cleveland St. W 71-65 70%    
  Dec 31, 2022 216   Purdue Fort Wayne W 77-70 75%    
  Jan 05, 2023 249   Robert Morris W 78-69 78%    
  Jan 07, 2023 359   IUPUI W 84-63 98%    
  Jan 12, 2023 177   @ Detroit Mercy L 75-76 46%    
  Jan 14, 2023 307   @ Oakland W 83-76 73%    
  Jan 19, 2023 362   @ Green Bay W 79-63 93%    
  Jan 21, 2023 226   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 77-75 57%    
  Jan 27, 2023 307   Oakland W 86-73 87%    
  Jan 29, 2023 177   Detroit Mercy W 78-73 67%    
  Feb 02, 2023 186   Wright St. W 79-74 69%    
  Feb 04, 2023 222   Northern Kentucky W 72-64 76%    
  Feb 10, 2023 216   @ Purdue Fort Wayne W 74-73 55%    
  Feb 12, 2023 191   @ Cleveland St. L 68-69 49%    
  Feb 16, 2023 226   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 80-72 76%    
  Feb 18, 2023 362   Green Bay W 82-60 97%    
  Feb 21, 2023 249   @ Robert Morris W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 25, 2023 359   @ IUPUI W 81-66 92%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 14 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.5 7.1 9.2 6.9 3.7 0.9 30.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.4 7.7 7.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 20.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 6.6 5.2 1.0 0.1 15.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 5.2 4.0 0.7 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.3 3.8 0.6 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.5 2.6 0.6 0.0 6.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.1 0.6 0.0 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.1 5.6 7.9 11.7 13.9 16.1 15.3 11.9 7.3 3.7 0.9 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9
18-2 99.7% 3.7    3.5 0.1
17-3 93.6% 6.9    5.8 1.0 0.0
16-4 77.5% 9.2    6.2 2.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 46.7% 7.1    2.7 3.3 1.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 15.5% 2.5    0.3 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 30.5% 30.5 19.5 8.2 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.9% 68.3% 63.4% 4.9% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 13.4%
18-2 3.7% 59.8% 59.8% 13.2 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.1 1.5
17-3 7.3% 52.3% 52.3% 13.6 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.8 0.4 0.0 3.5
16-4 11.9% 44.2% 44.2% 14.1 0.0 1.0 2.8 1.3 0.1 6.6
15-5 15.3% 36.2% 36.2% 14.4 0.0 0.5 2.6 2.1 0.3 9.7
14-6 16.1% 27.8% 27.8% 14.8 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.5 0.6 11.6
13-7 13.9% 21.2% 21.2% 15.1 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.8 10.9
12-8 11.7% 16.7% 16.7% 15.4 0.2 0.8 1.0 9.7
11-9 7.9% 12.8% 12.8% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 6.9
10-10 5.6% 7.9% 7.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 5.2
9-11 3.1% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 0.2 2.9
8-12 1.6% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.1 1.5
7-13 0.7% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.7
6-14 0.3% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 28.6% 28.6% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 4.3 10.0 9.1 4.2 71.4 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 78.2% 11.4 1.0 1.0 5.0 2.0 29.7 26.7 12.9