Xavier
Big East
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.1#28
Expected Predictive Rating+9.0#70
Pace73.9#71
Improvement+0.0#206

Offense
Total Offense+9.9#11
First Shot+12.3#2
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#303
Layup/Dunks+8.6#7
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#175
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#128
Freethrows+2.1#73
Improvement-0.1#260

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#83
First Shot+2.7#93
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#169
Layups/Dunks+1.8#121
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#272
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#198
Freethrows+2.2#70
Improvement+0.1#125
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.7% 1.3% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 2.4% 3.9% 0.9%
Top 4 Seed 10.5% 15.9% 5.4%
Top 6 Seed 26.1% 36.2% 16.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 68.0% 79.7% 57.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 64.4% 77.0% 52.9%
Average Seed 7.3 6.8 7.9
.500 or above 89.3% 95.1% 83.9%
.500 or above in Conference 83.7% 87.6% 80.0%
Conference Champion 7.9% 9.6% 6.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
First Four5.5% 4.6% 6.4%
First Round65.7% 77.8% 54.4%
Second Round41.2% 50.6% 32.3%
Sweet Sixteen17.0% 22.1% 12.3%
Elite Eight7.3% 9.8% 5.0%
Final Four2.9% 3.9% 1.9%
Championship Game1.1% 1.5% 0.7%
National Champion0.4% 0.7% 0.2%

Next Game: West Virginia (Home) - 48.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 9
Quad 25 - 29 - 11
Quad 34 - 114 - 12
Quad 46 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 267   Morgan St. W 96-73 96%     1 - 0 +14.9 +7.9 +3.7
  Nov 11, 2022 229   Montana W 86-64 95%     2 - 0 +15.5 +17.0 +0.4
  Nov 15, 2022 240   Fairfield W 78-65 96%     3 - 0 +6.0 -1.3 +6.6
  Nov 18, 2022 6   Indiana L 79-81 41%     3 - 1 +13.3 +12.4 +0.9
  Nov 24, 2022 66   Florida W 90-83 68%     4 - 1 +15.1 +12.4 +2.1
  Nov 25, 2022 19   Duke L 64-71 41%     4 - 2 +8.3 +3.5 +4.4
  Nov 27, 2022 9   Gonzaga L 84-88 34%     4 - 3 +13.4 +11.5 +2.2
  Nov 30, 2022 276   SE Louisiana W 95-63 97%     5 - 3 +23.4 +4.4 +14.7
  Dec 03, 2022 14   West Virginia L 76-77 48%    
  Dec 10, 2022 89   @ Cincinnati W 81-77 65%    
  Dec 13, 2022 215   Southern W 88-69 96%    
  Dec 16, 2022 178   @ Georgetown W 86-75 84%    
  Dec 20, 2022 68   Seton Hall W 79-71 76%    
  Dec 28, 2022 43   @ St. John's L 82-83 49%    
  Dec 31, 2022 2   Connecticut L 75-79 35%    
  Jan 07, 2023 79   @ Villanova W 74-71 61%    
  Jan 11, 2023 10   Creighton L 77-78 46%    
  Jan 15, 2023 22   Marquette W 81-79 57%    
  Jan 18, 2023 116   @ DePaul W 82-76 71%    
  Jan 21, 2023 178   Georgetown W 89-72 93%    
  Jan 25, 2023 2   @ Connecticut L 72-82 18%    
  Jan 28, 2023 10   @ Creighton L 74-81 26%    
  Feb 01, 2023 92   Providence W 81-70 83%    
  Feb 04, 2023 43   St. John's W 86-80 70%    
  Feb 10, 2023 54   @ Butler W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 15, 2023 22   @ Marquette L 78-82 35%    
  Feb 18, 2023 116   DePaul W 85-73 87%    
  Feb 21, 2023 79   Villanova W 77-68 79%    
  Feb 24, 2023 68   @ Seton Hall W 76-74 57%    
  Mar 01, 2023 92   @ Providence W 78-73 66%    
  Mar 04, 2023 54   Butler W 78-71 72%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.3 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 7.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.1 5.1 3.4 0.8 0.1 15.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.2 6.9 6.5 2.6 0.5 0.0 20.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.7 7.2 5.2 1.3 0.1 0.0 19.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 4.1 5.9 3.1 0.6 0.0 14.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.1 3.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 2.0 2.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 3.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.6 7.0 10.3 13.0 13.9 14.1 12.2 9.2 6.3 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 93.0% 1.3    1.1 0.2
17-3 72.8% 2.2    1.4 0.8 0.1
16-4 37.4% 2.3    1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0
15-5 14.5% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0
14-6 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.9% 7.9 4.2 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 28.2% 71.8% 1.7 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.4% 100.0% 26.5% 73.5% 2.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.0% 100.0% 21.1% 78.9% 3.3 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 6.3% 100.0% 15.8% 84.2% 4.4 0.1 0.3 1.3 1.8 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 100.0%
15-5 9.2% 99.7% 16.4% 83.3% 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 2.5 2.4 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.6%
14-6 12.2% 98.2% 11.8% 86.4% 6.7 0.1 0.5 1.9 3.2 3.2 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 97.9%
13-7 14.1% 93.0% 10.5% 82.5% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.3 3.3 2.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 92.2%
12-8 13.9% 79.3% 8.3% 71.0% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.6 2.8 2.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.9 77.5%
11-9 13.0% 57.7% 8.0% 49.7% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.1 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.5 54.1%
10-10 10.3% 30.3% 6.3% 24.0% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.2 25.6%
9-11 7.0% 10.6% 6.3% 4.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 6.3 4.6%
8-12 4.6% 5.0% 4.5% 0.4% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.4 0.5%
7-13 2.6% 3.2% 3.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.6
6-14 1.3% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.3
5-15 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.0 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 68.0% 10.1% 57.9% 7.3 0.7 1.6 3.3 4.9 7.0 8.6 9.9 9.4 7.8 6.7 5.3 1.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 32.0 64.4%