UNLV
Mountain West
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.0#77
Expected Predictive Rating+14.0#30
Pace74.9#57
Improvement+0.0#200

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#189
First Shot+0.4#158
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#245
Layup/Dunks-2.4#258
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#117
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#199
Freethrows+2.3#59
Improvement+0.1#76

Defense
Total Defense+7.7#29
First Shot+9.8#8
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#293
Layups/Dunks+11.9#1
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#224
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#332
Freethrows+4.4#15
Improvement-0.1#297
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 1.0% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.7% 3.6% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.7% 36.6% 18.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 24.6% 30.2% 13.8%
Average Seed 9.7 9.5 10.3
.500 or above 90.2% 94.8% 80.9%
.500 or above in Conference 66.8% 71.6% 57.0%
Conference Champion 7.1% 8.6% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.1% 3.1%
First Four7.5% 8.6% 5.3%
First Round26.5% 31.9% 15.7%
Second Round9.9% 12.5% 4.8%
Sweet Sixteen2.4% 3.0% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.7% 0.9% 0.2%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Away) - 66.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 24 - 35 - 7
Quad 38 - 213 - 10
Quad 46 - 019 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 215   Southern W 66-56 88%     1 - 0 +4.2 -14.1 +17.3
  Nov 12, 2022 327   Incarnate Word W 88-63 96%     2 - 0 +11.1 +3.7 +5.9
  Nov 15, 2022 72   Dayton W 60-52 59%     3 - 0 +12.7 -5.4 +18.3
  Nov 18, 2022 201   High Point W 78-68 86%     4 - 0 +5.3 -4.2 +8.6
  Nov 21, 2022 117   Southern Illinois W 56-49 63%     5 - 0 +10.7 -3.3 +15.0
  Nov 23, 2022 165   Minnesota W 71-62 74%     6 - 0 +9.2 +1.5 +7.8
  Dec 03, 2022 180   @ San Diego W 71-66 67%    
  Dec 07, 2022 142   Hawaii W 66-61 69%    
  Dec 10, 2022 60   Washington St. L 67-69 44%    
  Dec 17, 2022 83   San Francisco W 75-71 64%    
  Dec 22, 2022 111   Southern Miss W 68-62 72%    
  Dec 28, 2022 183   @ San Jose St. W 69-64 67%    
  Dec 31, 2022 25   San Diego St. L 67-71 37%    
  Jan 07, 2023 55   @ New Mexico L 72-77 32%    
  Jan 11, 2023 63   Boise St. W 63-61 57%    
  Jan 14, 2023 74   Colorado St. W 68-66 59%    
  Jan 17, 2023 48   @ Utah St. L 72-78 30%    
  Jan 21, 2023 155   @ Fresno St. W 62-59 62%    
  Jan 24, 2023 148   Wyoming W 72-63 78%    
  Jan 28, 2023 69   Nevada W 72-70 57%    
  Jan 31, 2023 74   @ Colorado St. L 65-69 38%    
  Feb 03, 2023 155   Fresno St. W 65-56 79%    
  Feb 08, 2023 148   @ Wyoming W 69-66 59%    
  Feb 11, 2023 25   @ San Diego St. L 64-74 20%    
  Feb 14, 2023 183   San Jose St. W 72-61 83%    
  Feb 19, 2023 63   @ Boise St. L 60-64 35%    
  Feb 24, 2023 225   Air Force W 68-55 88%    
  Mar 01, 2023 48   Utah St. W 76-75 51%    
  Mar 04, 2023 69   @ Nevada L 69-73 36%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.4 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 7.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.9 4.0 2.1 0.4 0.0 10.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.0 4.9 1.8 0.2 11.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.1 5.8 2.1 0.2 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.3 6.4 2.4 0.2 14.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.2 6.0 2.7 0.2 13.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 3.7 5.2 2.6 0.3 12.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.9 3.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 9.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.8 2.0 1.0 0.1 5.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.8 11th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.6 6.1 9.2 11.7 13.7 14.2 13.1 10.3 7.2 4.7 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 96.0% 1.0    0.8 0.1 0.0
15-3 82.3% 1.8    1.3 0.5 0.0
14-4 51.3% 2.4    1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0
13-5 17.3% 1.2    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1
12-6 2.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.1% 7.1 3.9 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 100.0% 25.4% 74.6% 3.9 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.0% 100.0% 25.5% 74.5% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.2% 96.0% 24.2% 71.8% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 94.7%
14-4 4.7% 89.5% 16.2% 73.2% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.5 87.4%
13-5 7.2% 77.3% 14.4% 62.9% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.1 1.6 73.5%
12-6 10.3% 58.4% 11.6% 46.8% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 4.3 53.0%
11-7 13.1% 39.9% 8.9% 31.0% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.6 0.7 0.1 7.9 34.0%
10-8 14.2% 22.3% 7.1% 15.2% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 11.0 16.3%
9-9 13.7% 12.3% 6.3% 6.0% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 12.1 6.4%
8-10 11.7% 6.4% 5.0% 1.4% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 11.0 1.5%
7-11 9.2% 3.1% 2.9% 0.2% 13.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.9 0.2%
6-12 6.1% 2.9% 2.9% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 5.9
5-13 3.6% 1.9% 1.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 3.5
4-14 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.7
3-15 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 30.7% 8.0% 22.6% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.6 4.8 6.4 8.2 3.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.2 69.3 24.6%