UAB
Conference USA
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.1#45
Expected Predictive Rating+7.0#81
Pace82.6#3
Improvement+0.3#35

Offense
Total Offense+7.9#20
First Shot+5.2#46
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#33
Layup/Dunks+5.7#22
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#230
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#231
Freethrows+2.1#61
Improvement+0.3#15

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#116
First Shot+3.4#70
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#263
Layups/Dunks-1.4#249
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#51
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#68
Freethrows-0.3#201
Improvement-0.1#191
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.6% 1.9% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 3.9% 4.4% 0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 47.4% 49.7% 32.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 20.6% 22.7% 8.8%
Average Seed 10.3 10.2 11.3
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 98.4% 98.7% 96.4%
Conference Champion 48.9% 50.8% 37.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four5.3% 5.7% 2.9%
First Round45.0% 47.1% 31.3%
Second Round18.9% 20.2% 10.3%
Sweet Sixteen6.3% 6.8% 2.9%
Elite Eight2.2% 2.4% 0.7%
Final Four0.7% 0.8% 0.2%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: South Alabama (Home) - 86.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 2
Quad 23 - 23 - 4
Quad 39 - 212 - 6
Quad 411 - 023 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 355   Alabama St. W 111-70 99%     1 - 0 +23.2 +13.6 +3.0
  Nov 11, 2022 102   Toledo L 85-93 70%     1 - 1 -3.3 -5.6 +3.8
  Nov 16, 2022 322   Presbyterian W 92-61 97%     2 - 1 +17.7 +7.3 +8.0
  Nov 21, 2022 187   South Florida W 80-65 85%     3 - 1 +14.2 +11.5 +3.1
  Nov 22, 2022 123   Georgia W 87-73 82%     4 - 1 +14.3 +17.3 -2.9
  Nov 30, 2022 136   Jacksonville W 80-61 84%     5 - 1 +18.4 +10.0 +8.6
  Dec 04, 2022 148   South Alabama W 83-71 87%    
  Dec 10, 2022 16   @ West Virginia L 76-85 20%    
  Dec 14, 2022 232   South Carolina W 85-68 94%    
  Dec 18, 2022 214   Southern W 90-74 93%    
  Dec 22, 2022 124   Charlotte W 75-65 81%    
  Dec 29, 2022 189   UTEP W 83-69 90%    
  Dec 31, 2022 307   Texas San Antonio W 90-69 97%    
  Jan 05, 2023 68   @ Florida Atlantic L 80-81 47%    
  Jan 07, 2023 241   @ Florida International W 91-80 85%    
  Jan 11, 2023 129   Western Kentucky W 86-76 83%    
  Jan 14, 2023 119   @ Louisiana Tech W 83-80 62%    
  Jan 16, 2023 127   @ Middle Tennessee W 78-74 65%    
  Jan 21, 2023 82   North Texas W 70-64 71%    
  Jan 26, 2023 119   Louisiana Tech W 86-77 80%    
  Jan 28, 2023 278   @ Rice W 91-78 87%    
  Feb 02, 2023 68   Florida Atlantic W 83-78 67%    
  Feb 04, 2023 241   Florida International W 94-77 93%    
  Feb 09, 2023 82   @ North Texas W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 11, 2023 127   Middle Tennessee W 81-71 82%    
  Feb 16, 2023 189   @ UTEP W 80-72 76%    
  Feb 18, 2023 307   @ Texas San Antonio W 87-72 91%    
  Feb 23, 2023 278   Rice W 94-75 95%    
  Feb 25, 2023 129   @ Western Kentucky W 83-79 64%    
  Mar 04, 2023 124   @ Charlotte W 72-68 64%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 15 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 4.9 10.4 13.1 10.9 6.2 2.0 48.9 1st
2nd 0.2 1.7 5.7 8.3 5.9 1.9 0.3 24.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.3 4.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 12.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.6 2.5 0.6 0.0 6.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.2 2.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 3.6 5.9 8.9 11.9 15.2 16.5 15.0 11.2 6.2 2.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.0    2.0
19-1 100.0% 6.2    6.1 0.0
18-2 97.4% 10.9    10.1 0.8 0.0
17-3 87.4% 13.1    10.5 2.5 0.1
16-4 62.8% 10.4    6.0 3.8 0.5 0.0
15-5 32.4% 4.9    1.9 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-6 10.7% 1.3    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 48.9% 48.9 37.0 9.9 1.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.0% 97.5% 62.2% 35.3% 4.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 93.4%
19-1 6.2% 93.7% 56.3% 37.4% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.4 85.7%
18-2 11.2% 82.1% 49.1% 33.1% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.4 2.3 0.5 0.0 2.0 64.9%
17-3 15.0% 66.4% 42.1% 24.3% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.5 4.3 1.7 0.1 5.1 41.9%
16-4 16.5% 49.2% 35.8% 13.5% 11.2 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.6 2.8 0.4 0.0 8.4 20.9%
15-5 15.2% 35.8% 30.6% 5.2% 11.7 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.6 0.7 0.1 9.7 7.5%
14-6 11.9% 27.7% 25.8% 1.9% 12.1 0.0 0.6 1.8 0.8 0.1 8.6 2.5%
13-7 8.9% 21.0% 20.7% 0.3% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.1 7.0 0.4%
12-8 5.9% 16.0% 16.0% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 4.9
11-9 3.6% 13.5% 13.5% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.1
10-10 2.1% 10.3% 10.3% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.9
9-11 0.9% 11.6% 11.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8
8-12 0.4% 3.2% 3.2% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.4
7-13 0.1% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
6-14 0.1% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 47.4% 33.8% 13.6% 10.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.7 2.4 4.2 6.9 13.2 10.8 3.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 52.6 20.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 99.3% 2.9 14.9 22.8 28.8 24.8 5.3 2.6