Preseason Rankings
Mountain West
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
31 San Diego St. 64.2%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 9 13 - 5 +12.1      +3.7 73 +8.4 7 65.2 263 0.0 1 0.0 1
54 Boise St. 39.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 10 11 - 7 +9.3      +3.7 72 +5.6 39 66.1 228 0.0 1 0.0 1
55 New Mexico 39.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 11 - 7 +9.3      +7.4 18 +1.8 114 77.6 16 0.0 1 0.0 1
71 Colorado St. 27.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 10 - 8 +7.4      +5.4 41 +2.0 112 66.1 229 0.0 1 0.0 1
79 Nevada 21.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 9 - 9 +6.7      +3.4 76 +3.3 84 65.3 258 0.0 1 0.0 1
83 Utah St. 19.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 9 - 9 +6.3      +3.4 78 +3.0 91 71.1 104 0.0 1 0.0 1
91 UNLV 16.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 9 +5.5      +3.2 84 +2.3 106 72.9 54 0.0 1 0.0 1
111 Fresno St. 9.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 8 - 10 +3.7      -0.2 185 +3.9 66 62.0 328 0.0 1 0.0 1
147 San Jose St. 4.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 7 - 11 +1.3      +0.5 157 +0.8 143 59.2 350 0.0 1 0.0 1
163 Wyoming 3.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 16 6 - 12 +0.5      +0.8 145 -0.4 185 64.6 275 0.0 1 0.0 1
166 Air Force 2.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 6 - 12 +0.4      -0.9 213 +1.3 133 60.4 345 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
San Diego St. 2.9 36.6 19.6 12.9 9.6 7.0 5.2 3.7 2.5 1.7 0.9 0.3
Boise St. 4.0 20.1 17.4 14.0 11.6 9.6 7.9 6.5 5.2 3.8 2.5 1.2
New Mexico 4.0 19.3 17.0 14.3 11.9 10.0 8.4 6.8 5.2 3.7 2.4 1.2
Colorado St. 4.9 12.1 12.4 12.7 11.9 11.1 10.1 9.0 7.7 6.1 4.4 2.5
Nevada 5.3 9.8 10.7 11.2 11.7 11.5 10.6 9.9 8.7 7.3 5.6 3.1
Utah St. 5.3 9.1 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.1 10.7 9.7 8.8 7.5 5.6 3.7
UNLV 5.7 7.2 9.3 10.6 11.1 11.2 11.0 10.3 9.7 8.5 6.7 4.5
Fresno St. 6.5 4.2 6.2 7.4 8.9 10.0 10.7 11.6 11.5 10.9 10.1 8.4
San Jose St. 7.7 1.7 3.1 4.4 5.7 7.3 8.6 10.3 12.1 14.5 16.0 16.3
Wyoming 8.0 1.3 2.3 4.0 5.3 6.5 8.0 9.8 12.3 14.4 17.0 19.3
Air Force 8.1 1.2 2.2 3.5 4.7 6.4 7.9 9.5 11.7 14.4 17.7 20.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
San Diego St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.7 4.2 6.0 8.1 10.2 11.6 12.7 12.4 11.8 9.2 5.7 2.1
Boise St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.5 3.9 5.7 7.1 9.0 10.6 11.3 11.6 11.2 9.4 7.3 4.6 2.3 0.7
New Mexico 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.4 3.8 5.7 7.7 9.6 10.3 11.8 12.1 11.0 9.1 6.9 4.2 2.1 0.6
Colorado St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.6 4.2 6.3 7.8 9.9 11.1 11.6 11.1 10.2 8.4 6.2 4.2 2.4 1.0 0.2
Nevada 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.5 5.4 7.0 9.3 10.5 11.3 11.5 10.6 9.2 7.1 5.4 3.3 1.8 0.7 0.1
Utah St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.6 5.5 7.4 9.2 10.3 11.2 11.3 10.4 9.2 7.2 5.1 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.2
UNLV 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.7 4.2 6.2 8.3 9.8 11.1 11.2 11.6 9.9 8.2 6.2 4.3 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.1
Fresno St. 8 - 10 0.3 1.2 2.7 4.5 6.6 8.7 10.3 11.5 11.5 10.6 9.7 7.5 6.0 4.0 2.6 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.0
San Jose St. 7 - 11 0.8 3.0 5.6 8.4 10.7 11.9 12.1 11.3 10.1 8.3 6.5 4.6 3.1 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Wyoming 6 - 12 1.3 3.8 6.5 9.2 11.4 12.1 12.4 11.2 9.3 7.6 5.8 4.1 2.5 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Air Force 6 - 12 1.4 4.1 7.0 10.0 11.9 12.3 11.6 10.8 9.6 7.3 5.6 3.8 2.2 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
San Diego St. 36.6% 27.1 7.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Boise St. 20.1% 13.5 5.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
New Mexico 19.3% 12.8 5.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Colorado St. 12.1% 7.7 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.0
Nevada 9.8% 5.8 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Utah St. 9.1% 5.4 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
UNLV 7.2% 4.2 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 4.2% 2.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 1.7% 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wyoming 1.3% 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Air Force 1.2% 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
San Diego St. 64.2% 25.6% 38.6% 10   3.8 4.9 5.4 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.2 5.4 5.9 7.2 6.4 1.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 35.8 51.9%
Boise St. 39.3% 15.0% 24.2% 1.0 1.6 2.0 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.6 4.2 5.9 6.1 1.9 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 60.7 28.5%
New Mexico 39.4% 15.0% 24.3% 0.8 1.4 1.9 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 4.2 6.0 6.9 2.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 60.6 28.6%
Colorado St. 27.4% 10.5% 16.9% 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.9 2.2 2.4 3.1 4.5 5.2 1.9 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 72.6 18.9%
Nevada 21.4% 8.7% 12.8% 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.4 3.4 4.6 1.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 78.6 14.0%
Utah St. 19.4% 7.9% 11.5% 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.4 2.0 3.4 4.4 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.3 80.6 12.5%
UNLV 16.2% 6.5% 9.7% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.6 3.6 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.5 83.8 10.4%
Fresno St. 9.1% 4.6% 4.5% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.4 90.9 4.7%
San Jose St. 4.1% 2.5% 1.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 95.9 1.7%
Wyoming 3.0% 1.8% 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 97.0 1.2%
Air Force 2.8% 2.0% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 97.2 0.9%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
San Diego St. 64.2% 5.2% 61.7% 40.0% 19.7% 9.3% 4.2% 2.0% 0.9%
Boise St. 39.3% 4.7% 36.9% 20.9% 8.9% 3.8% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3%
New Mexico 39.4% 5.5% 36.7% 20.2% 8.5% 3.5% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Colorado St. 27.4% 4.4% 25.3% 12.9% 4.7% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
Nevada 21.4% 3.7% 19.6% 9.4% 3.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Utah St. 19.4% 3.7% 17.6% 8.2% 3.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
UNLV 16.2% 3.3% 14.5% 6.5% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Fresno St. 9.1% 1.8% 8.2% 3.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 4.1% 0.9% 3.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 3.0% 0.9% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 2.8% 0.6% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.5 15.1 38.9 32.7 11.2 1.8 0.2 0.0
1st Round 99.9% 2.3 0.1 19.2 42.4 28.8 8.4 1.0 0.0
2nd Round 80.1% 1.2 19.9 44.8 27.9 6.7 0.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 44.6% 0.5 55.4 37.3 6.7 0.5 0.0
Elite Eight 21.2% 0.2 78.8 20.0 1.2 0.0
Final Four 9.3% 0.1 90.7 9.2 0.2
Final Game 4.2% 0.0 95.8 4.2 0.0
Champion 1.8% 0.0 98.2 1.8