Preseason Rankings
Utah St.
Mountain West
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.3#83
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.1#104
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#78
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#91
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 1.0% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.8% 3.3% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 3.9% 6.5% 1.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.4% 26.9% 13.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12.5% 18.7% 7.4%
Average Seed 9.1 8.7 9.9
.500 or above 65.9% 79.5% 54.4%
.500 or above in Conference 60.4% 69.4% 52.8%
Conference Champion 9.1% 12.4% 6.3%
Last Place in Conference 6.3% 3.8% 8.4%
First Four3.7% 4.9% 2.7%
First Round17.6% 24.5% 11.8%
Second Round8.2% 12.3% 4.7%
Sweet Sixteen3.0% 4.6% 1.6%
Elite Eight1.2% 1.9% 0.6%
Final Four0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Bradley (Away) - 45.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 23 - 44 - 8
Quad 36 - 311 - 11
Quad 45 - 115 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2023 100   @ Bradley L 68-69 46%    
  Nov 14, 2023 226   Southern Utah W 86-73 88%    
  Nov 19, 2023 135   Marshall W 81-77 65%    
  Nov 28, 2023 102   @ Saint Louis L 75-76 47%    
  Dec 02, 2023 97   UC Irvine W 76-71 65%    
  Dec 06, 2023 227   San Diego W 83-70 86%    
  Dec 13, 2023 144   @ Santa Clara W 78-76 56%    
  Dec 16, 2023 92   San Francisco W 75-74 53%    
  Dec 22, 2023 239   East Tennessee St. W 77-64 87%    
  Jan 02, 2024 166   @ Air Force W 69-66 60%    
  Jan 06, 2024 71   Colorado St. W 74-72 56%    
  Jan 09, 2024 163   Wyoming W 76-67 77%    
  Jan 13, 2024 91   @ UNLV L 75-77 42%    
  Jan 16, 2024 55   @ New Mexico L 77-83 30%    
  Jan 20, 2024 111   Fresno St. W 70-64 68%    
  Jan 27, 2024 54   @ Boise St. L 68-74 31%    
  Jan 30, 2024 147   San Jose St. W 71-63 74%    
  Feb 03, 2024 31   @ San Diego St. L 64-73 23%    
  Feb 06, 2024 79   Nevada W 73-70 59%    
  Feb 10, 2024 54   Boise St. W 71-70 50%    
  Feb 14, 2024 163   @ Wyoming W 73-70 59%    
  Feb 17, 2024 71   @ Colorado St. L 71-75 37%    
  Feb 20, 2024 31   San Diego St. L 67-70 41%    
  Feb 27, 2024 111   @ Fresno St. L 67-68 49%    
  Mar 01, 2024 166   Air Force W 72-63 77%    
  Mar 06, 2024 147   @ San Jose St. W 68-66 57%    
  Mar 09, 2024 55   New Mexico W 81-80 50%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.4 2.6 1.6 0.7 0.2 9.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 2.9 3.9 2.4 0.8 0.1 11.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 1.1 3.8 4.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 11.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 4.3 4.4 1.5 0.2 11.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 4.1 4.5 1.4 0.1 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.9 4.5 1.4 0.1 10.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.6 4.0 1.3 0.1 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.1 3.6 1.3 0.1 8.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 2.6 2.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 1.9 0.7 0.1 5.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 3.7 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.6 5.5 7.4 9.2 10.3 11.2 11.3 10.4 9.2 7.2 5.1 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.0
16-2 94.1% 1.6    1.3 0.2 0.0
15-3 75.5% 2.6    1.7 0.8 0.1
14-4 46.8% 2.4    1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0
13-5 18.0% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.1% 9.1 5.4 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 41.3% 58.7% 2.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.7% 98.8% 34.5% 64.3% 3.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.2%
16-2 1.7% 95.2% 29.7% 65.5% 5.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 93.2%
15-3 3.4% 87.2% 25.3% 62.0% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4 82.9%
14-4 5.1% 69.3% 20.2% 49.1% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.6 61.6%
13-5 7.2% 51.5% 16.1% 35.4% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.5 42.2%
12-6 9.2% 29.7% 11.6% 18.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.5 20.5%
11-7 10.4% 15.4% 8.0% 7.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.8 8.1%
10-8 11.3% 8.5% 6.9% 1.6% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.4 1.7%
9-9 11.2% 5.4% 5.2% 0.2% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.6 0.2%
8-10 10.3% 3.2% 3.1% 0.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.0 0.1%
7-11 9.2% 2.9% 2.9% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.0
6-12 7.4% 1.9% 1.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.2
5-13 5.5% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 5.5
4-14 3.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.6
3-15 2.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.1
2-16 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.0
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 19.4% 7.9% 11.5% 9.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.4 2.0 3.4 4.4 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.3 80.6 12.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.6 44.7 54.4 1.0