Preseason Rankings
Nevada
Mountain West
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.7#79
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.3#258
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#76
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#84
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.2% 2.4% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 4.6% 5.0% 0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.4% 22.6% 9.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 14.0% 14.9% 4.4%
Average Seed 9.0 8.9 11.0
.500 or above 72.2% 75.1% 42.5%
.500 or above in Conference 61.0% 63.0% 40.8%
Conference Champion 9.8% 10.5% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 5.6% 4.9% 12.7%
First Four3.7% 3.8% 2.3%
First Round19.6% 20.7% 7.9%
Second Round9.4% 10.1% 2.2%
Sweet Sixteen3.5% 3.8% 0.5%
Elite Eight1.3% 1.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacramento St. (Home) - 91.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 23 - 44 - 8
Quad 37 - 311 - 11
Quad 46 - 117 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 252   Sacramento St. W 72-57 91%    
  Nov 12, 2023 74   @ Washington L 69-73 37%    
  Nov 15, 2023 188   Pacific W 79-68 83%    
  Nov 18, 2023 174   Portland W 79-69 81%    
  Nov 29, 2023 181   Montana W 72-62 82%    
  Dec 02, 2023 116   Loyola Marymount W 74-67 71%    
  Dec 06, 2023 173   UC Davis W 77-67 80%    
  Dec 09, 2023 70   Drake L 67-68 47%    
  Dec 13, 2023 160   Weber St. W 71-62 78%    
  Dec 17, 2023 142   @ Hawaii W 66-64 57%    
  Dec 21, 2023 138   Temple W 70-65 66%    
  Jan 06, 2024 111   @ Fresno St. L 64-65 50%    
  Jan 09, 2024 166   Air Force W 69-60 78%    
  Jan 12, 2024 54   Boise St. W 68-67 51%    
  Jan 17, 2024 31   @ San Diego St. L 62-70 24%    
  Jan 20, 2024 163   @ Wyoming W 70-67 60%    
  Jan 24, 2024 71   Colorado St. W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 28, 2024 55   @ New Mexico L 74-80 32%    
  Feb 02, 2024 147   San Jose St. W 69-61 76%    
  Feb 06, 2024 83   @ Utah St. L 70-73 41%    
  Feb 09, 2024 31   San Diego St. L 65-67 42%    
  Feb 13, 2024 55   New Mexico W 77-76 51%    
  Feb 17, 2024 91   @ UNLV L 71-73 44%    
  Feb 20, 2024 163   Wyoming W 73-64 77%    
  Feb 23, 2024 147   @ San Jose St. W 66-64 57%    
  Feb 27, 2024 71   @ Colorado St. L 68-72 38%    
  Mar 01, 2024 111   Fresno St. W 67-61 69%    
  Mar 05, 2024 54   @ Boise St. L 65-71 33%    
  Mar 09, 2024 91   UNLV W 74-70 63%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.7 2.6 1.7 0.7 0.1 9.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 2.9 3.8 2.4 0.7 0.1 10.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.8 4.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 11.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 4.3 4.5 1.5 0.1 11.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 4.2 4.7 1.4 0.1 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.9 4.5 1.3 0.1 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.6 4.2 1.3 0.1 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 2.9 3.7 1.2 0.1 8.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 2.4 2.8 1.1 0.1 7.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 3.1 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.5 5.4 7.0 9.3 10.5 11.3 11.5 10.6 9.2 7.1 5.4 3.3 1.8 0.7 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.0
16-2 94.9% 1.7    1.5 0.2
15-3 78.6% 2.6    1.7 0.8 0.0
14-4 50.7% 2.7    1.3 1.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 20.7% 1.5    0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.6% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.8% 9.8 5.8 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 36.5% 63.5% 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.7% 98.7% 51.0% 47.6% 3.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.2%
16-2 1.8% 98.0% 31.3% 66.7% 4.9 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.1%
15-3 3.3% 89.8% 25.9% 63.9% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 86.2%
14-4 5.4% 75.8% 21.5% 54.3% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 69.2%
13-5 7.1% 52.9% 15.9% 37.0% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.3 44.0%
12-6 9.2% 35.2% 12.5% 22.7% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 25.9%
11-7 10.6% 18.5% 9.0% 9.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.6 10.5%
10-8 11.5% 10.0% 7.3% 2.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.3 2.9%
9-9 11.3% 6.5% 5.9% 0.6% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.6 0.6%
8-10 10.5% 3.8% 3.7% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.1 0.0%
7-11 9.3% 2.9% 2.9% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.0
6-12 7.0% 1.8% 1.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.9
5-13 5.4% 1.8% 1.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.3
4-14 3.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.0 3.5
3-15 1.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.9
2-16 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.9
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 21.4% 8.7% 12.8% 9.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.4 3.4 4.6 1.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 78.6 14.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.6 47.3 48.6 4.1