Preseason Rankings
South Florida
American Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#145
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.2#130
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#175
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#121
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 3.9% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.7 11.7 14.1
.500 or above 66.2% 68.2% 35.8%
.500 or above in Conference 52.0% 53.3% 31.7%
Conference Champion 3.1% 3.3% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 6.7% 6.2% 14.4%
First Four0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
First Round3.4% 3.6% 0.8%
Second Round0.9% 1.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina St. (Home) - 93.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 32 - 6
Quad 35 - 56 - 11
Quad 410 - 216 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2023 345   South Carolina St. W 86-70 94%    
  Nov 15, 2023 323   Central Michigan W 77-63 90%    
  Nov 19, 2023 123   Northern Iowa W 73-71 57%    
  Nov 22, 2023 264   Maine W 74-64 82%    
  Nov 30, 2023 112   @ Hofstra L 69-74 33%    
  Dec 02, 2023 192   @ Massachusetts L 75-76 49%    
  Dec 09, 2023 85   Florida St. L 72-77 35%    
  Dec 12, 2023 346   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 82-65 92%    
  Dec 17, 2023 96   Loyola Chicago L 69-70 49%    
  Dec 22, 2023 318   Albany W 78-65 88%    
  Dec 29, 2023 353   Alabama St. W 78-61 93%    
  Jan 04, 2024 138   Temple W 70-67 59%    
  Jan 07, 2024 77   @ UAB L 72-80 24%    
  Jan 12, 2024 178   Rice W 79-74 67%    
  Jan 18, 2024 27   @ Memphis L 70-84 13%    
  Jan 21, 2024 95   Wichita St. L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 24, 2024 138   @ Temple L 67-70 39%    
  Jan 27, 2024 249   Texas San Antonio W 79-70 78%    
  Jan 31, 2024 146   @ East Carolina L 69-72 41%    
  Feb 03, 2024 90   @ North Texas L 56-63 28%    
  Feb 06, 2024 156   Charlotte W 65-61 62%    
  Feb 10, 2024 178   @ Rice L 76-77 46%    
  Feb 14, 2024 233   Tulsa W 76-68 75%    
  Feb 18, 2024 25   Florida Atlantic L 69-77 25%    
  Feb 21, 2024 249   @ Texas San Antonio W 76-73 61%    
  Feb 25, 2024 101   SMU W 73-72 51%    
  Mar 02, 2024 156   @ Charlotte L 62-64 43%    
  Mar 05, 2024 99   Tulane L 78-79 50%    
  Mar 09, 2024 233   @ Tulsa W 73-71 57%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 3.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 2.0 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.1 2.4 0.7 0.1 7.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 3.8 2.8 0.7 0.0 8.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.9 3.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.3 4.1 1.0 0.1 9.0 6th
7th 0.2 2.4 4.6 1.5 0.1 0.0 8.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 4.9 2.3 0.2 8.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.9 3.3 0.5 0.0 8.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.8 3.8 0.8 0.0 7.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.5 1.2 0.1 7.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.9 1.4 0.2 6.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.2 13th
14th 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.9 14th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.9 4.7 6.8 8.8 10.6 12.0 11.6 11.1 9.7 7.7 5.4 3.5 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 96.7% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 79.4% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
15-3 56.4% 1.0    0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 23.0% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 5.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.1% 3.1 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 94.0% 35.8% 58.2% 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.7%
17-1 0.2% 78.9% 20.8% 58.1% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.4%
16-2 0.9% 51.1% 14.3% 36.7% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 42.9%
15-3 1.8% 30.7% 12.9% 17.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.3 20.4%
14-4 3.5% 13.7% 9.0% 4.7% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.0 5.2%
13-5 5.4% 8.1% 7.4% 0.7% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.9 0.8%
12-6 7.7% 5.9% 5.8% 0.1% 12.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.3 0.1%
11-7 9.7% 3.0% 3.0% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.4
10-8 11.1% 2.8% 2.8% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.8
9-9 11.6% 1.5% 1.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.4
8-10 12.0% 1.2% 1.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.9
7-11 10.6% 0.9% 0.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.5
6-12 8.8% 0.6% 0.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7
5-13 6.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.0 6.8
4-14 4.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.6
3-15 2.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.9
2-16 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.4
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.7% 2.7% 1.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 96.3 1.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 86.7% 2.3 25.0 28.3 18.3 13.3 1.7