Preseason Rankings
Miami (FL)
Atlantic Coast
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.1#30
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.0#105
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.3#13
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#71
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.3% 3.3% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 7.6% 7.6% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 17.8% 17.9% 2.0%
Top 6 Seed 28.8% 29.0% 3.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 59.0% 59.2% 23.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 54.3% 54.5% 19.4%
Average Seed 6.5 6.5 8.8
.500 or above 92.2% 92.4% 64.4%
.500 or above in Conference 80.5% 80.7% 54.2%
Conference Champion 13.2% 13.3% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 1.0% 3.2%
First Four5.0% 5.0% 4.4%
First Round56.6% 56.8% 20.7%
Second Round37.7% 37.8% 12.6%
Sweet Sixteen18.6% 18.7% 2.5%
Elite Eight9.1% 9.1% 0.7%
Final Four4.2% 4.3% 0.7%
Championship Game1.9% 1.9% 0.0%
National Champion0.9% 0.9% 0.0%

Next Game: NJIT (Home) - 99.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 6
Quad 25 - 28 - 8
Quad 36 - 114 - 9
Quad 47 - 021 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 339   NJIT W 86-60 99%    
  Nov 10, 2023 81   Central Florida W 75-66 78%    
  Nov 13, 2023 196   Florida International W 86-70 93%    
  Nov 17, 2023 73   Georgia W 78-73 67%    
  Nov 28, 2023 13   @ Kentucky L 71-77 30%    
  Dec 02, 2023 133   Notre Dame W 79-66 87%    
  Dec 06, 2023 359   LIU Brooklyn W 96-66 99%    
  Dec 10, 2023 33   Colorado W 76-75 51%    
  Dec 16, 2023 199   La Salle W 83-67 92%    
  Dec 21, 2023 350   Stonehill W 87-59 99%    
  Dec 29, 2023 280   North Florida W 89-68 96%    
  Jan 03, 2024 45   Clemson W 78-73 66%    
  Jan 06, 2024 64   @ Wake Forest W 79-78 52%    
  Jan 10, 2024 124   Louisville W 81-68 86%    
  Jan 13, 2024 57   @ Virginia Tech L 74-75 50%    
  Jan 17, 2024 85   Florida St. W 82-73 78%    
  Jan 20, 2024 75   @ Syracuse W 77-75 57%    
  Jan 24, 2024 133   @ Notre Dame W 76-69 72%    
  Jan 27, 2024 69   Pittsburgh W 79-72 73%    
  Jan 30, 2024 61   @ North Carolina St. W 79-78 50%    
  Feb 03, 2024 57   Virginia Tech W 78-72 69%    
  Feb 05, 2024 34   @ Virginia L 65-67 43%    
  Feb 10, 2024 16   North Carolina W 78-77 54%    
  Feb 14, 2024 45   @ Clemson L 75-76 47%    
  Feb 17, 2024 103   @ Boston College W 76-71 66%    
  Feb 21, 2024 3   Duke L 71-73 42%    
  Feb 24, 2024 98   Georgia Tech W 79-69 80%    
  Feb 26, 2024 16   @ North Carolina L 75-80 35%    
  Mar 06, 2024 103   Boston College W 79-68 81%    
  Mar 09, 2024 85   @ Florida St. W 79-76 60%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.8 3.6 3.0 1.7 0.4 13.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.5 4.4 4.3 2.0 0.5 0.0 14.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.8 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.5 2.9 0.7 0.1 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.4 2.5 0.5 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 3.8 2.4 0.5 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 3.0 2.7 0.6 0.0 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.3 2.5 0.8 0.1 6.0 8th
9th 0.2 1.5 2.3 0.9 0.0 4.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.0 0.1 3.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.0 0.2 3.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.2 3.3 5.0 6.6 8.1 10.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 9.9 8.1 5.8 3.5 1.8 0.4 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 97.7% 1.7    1.5 0.2
18-2 85.1% 3.0    2.4 0.6 0.0
17-3 62.5% 3.6    2.1 1.2 0.2 0.0
16-4 35.0% 2.8    1.1 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0
15-5 13.1% 1.3    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 2.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.2% 13.2 8.0 3.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 100.0% 38.6% 61.4% 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.8% 100.0% 31.5% 68.5% 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.5% 100.0% 26.1% 73.9% 2.2 1.0 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 5.8% 99.9% 21.8% 78.0% 3.2 0.7 1.3 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
16-4 8.1% 99.2% 17.7% 81.5% 4.4 0.2 0.8 1.4 2.0 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.0%
15-5 9.9% 96.8% 14.2% 82.6% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.3 96.3%
14-6 11.0% 89.8% 11.2% 78.6% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.1 1.9 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.1 88.5%
13-7 11.0% 76.4% 8.9% 67.6% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.8 1.9 1.7 0.9 0.0 2.6 74.1%
12-8 11.0% 57.2% 7.3% 49.9% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.3 2.0 1.3 0.1 4.7 53.8%
11-9 10.0% 34.3% 5.7% 28.6% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.5 30.3%
10-10 8.1% 15.7% 5.0% 10.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8 11.3%
9-11 6.6% 5.0% 3.3% 1.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3 1.7%
8-12 5.0% 3.3% 3.0% 0.3% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 0.3%
7-13 3.3% 2.7% 2.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2
6-14 2.2% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.2
5-15 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.3
4-16 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-17 0.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 59.0% 10.2% 48.7% 6.5 3.3 4.3 4.9 5.4 5.4 5.7 6.0 6.1 5.9 6.5 4.6 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 41.0 54.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.3 72.4 25.4 2.3