IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Idaho St.
Big Sky
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.9	#290
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.0	#285
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.1	#300

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.8	#259

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.7%	4.3%	1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.0	14.9	15.2

.500 or above	22.6%	36.5%	14.5%
.500 or above in Conference	32.9%	42.5%	27.2%
Conference Champion	2.9%	4.5%	1.9%
Last Place in Conference	16.0%	10.7%	19.2%

First Four	0.8%	1.0%	0.6%
First Round	2.3%	3.9%	1.4%
Second Round	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: St. Thomas (Away) - 36.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	2 - 7	2 - 10
Quad 4	9 - 8	11 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 10, 2023	276	@ St. Thomas	L	67-71	37%
Nov 12, 2023	40	@ Iowa St.	L	52-73	3%
Nov 20, 2023	320	The Citadel	W	69-67	57%
Nov 21, 2023	294	@ Campbell	L	63-66	39%
Nov 28, 2023	191	@ Pepperdine	L	70-79	22%
Dec 02, 2023	356	Lindenwood	W	74-64	81%
Dec 05, 2023	111	@ Fresno St.	L	56-70	12%
Dec 09, 2023	226	@ Southern Utah	L	70-77	29%
Dec 21, 2023	118	@ Oregon St.	L	57-70	14%
Dec 28, 2023	225	Montana St.	L	66-67	48%
Dec 30, 2023	181	Montana	L	64-67	39%
Jan 03, 2024	307	@ Denver	L	70-72	43%
Jan 06, 2024	296	Nebraska Omaha	W	72-69	61%
Jan 11, 2024	211	@ Portland St.	L	70-78	26%
Jan 13, 2024	252	@ Sacramento St.	L	61-66	34%
Jan 18, 2024	354	Idaho	W	72-63	78%
Jan 20, 2024	169	Eastern Washington	L	69-73	37%
Jan 22, 2024	225	@ Montana St.	L	63-70	29%
Jan 27, 2024	160	@ Weber St.	L	60-70	20%
Feb 01, 2024	251	@ Northern Colorado	L	69-74	34%
Feb 03, 2024	231	@ Northern Arizona	L	66-72	30%
Feb 08, 2024	252	Sacramento St.	W	64-63	53%
Feb 10, 2024	211	Portland St.	L	73-75	44%
Feb 15, 2024	169	@ Eastern Washington	L	66-76	20%
Feb 17, 2024	354	@ Idaho	W	69-66	61%
Feb 24, 2024	160	Weber St.	L	63-67	36%
Feb 29, 2024	231	Northern Arizona	L	69-70	49%
Mar 02, 2024	251	Northern Colorado	W	72-71	53%
Mar 04, 2024	181	@ Montana	L	61-70	22%
Projected Record						11 - 18	7 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.3	0.7	0.9	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0		2.9	1st
2nd										0.0	0.1	0.8	1.6	1.5	0.6	0.1	0.0				4.7	2nd
3rd										0.1	1.2	2.6	1.9	0.5	0.0						6.3	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	1.6	3.5	2.2	0.4	0.0							8.0	4th
5th								0.2	2.0	4.3	2.6	0.4	0.0								9.6	5th
6th						0.0	0.4	2.6	4.9	2.9	0.4	0.0									11.1	6th
7th					0.0	0.7	3.4	5.7	3.1	0.5	0.0										13.5	7th
8th			0.0	0.2	1.7	4.7	5.9	3.0	0.5	0.0											16.0	8th
9th		0.1	1.1	3.4	5.5	5.0	2.1	0.3	0.0												17.5	9th
10th	0.4	1.8	3.0	2.8	1.8	0.6	0.0														10.4	10th

Total	0.4	1.9	4.0	6.5	9.1	11.0	11.8	11.9	10.6	9.5	7.9	6.0	4.2	2.6	1.5	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0			Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
16-2	95.4%	0.3		0.2	0.0
15-3	80.7%	0.6		0.5	0.1
14-4	58.5%	0.9		0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-5	25.8%	0.7		0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0
12-6	6.4%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.4%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	2.9%	2.9		1.5	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		55.9%	55.9%		12.1												0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0
17-1	0.1%		45.1%	45.1%		13.0												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
16-2	0.3%		44.8%	44.8%		13.2												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2
15-3	0.8%		24.9%	24.9%		13.8												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.6
14-4	1.5%		18.3%	18.3%		14.4													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.2
13-5	2.6%		13.4%	13.4%		14.5														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	2.3
12-6	4.2%		9.4%	9.4%		15.0														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	3.8
11-7	6.0%		6.2%	6.2%		15.4														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	5.6
10-8	7.9%		4.2%	4.2%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	7.6
9-9	9.5%		2.8%	2.8%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.2	9.2
8-10	10.6%		1.9%	1.9%		16.0															0.0	0.0	0.2	10.4
7-11	11.9%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	11.9
6-12	11.8%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	11.8
5-13	11.0%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	10.9
4-14	9.1%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	9.0
3-15	6.5%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	6.5
2-16	4.0%																							4.0
1-17	1.9%																							1.9
0-18	0.4%																							0.4

Total	100%		2.7%	2.7%	0.0%	15.0												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.8	1.2	97.3		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%